ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[AutoPenalti]

Don't think. Its injested until 0z

I thought some data made it to this run...?

The first sounding wasn't taken until 17:59z. No way that made it into 18z initialization. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/# ... 6AFLORENCE

Ah, alright. Thanks.

[Aric Dunn]

I thought some data made it to this run...?

The first sounding wasn't taken until 17:59z. No way that made it into 18z initialization. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/# ... 6AFLORENCE

Ah, alright. Thanks.

P3 also has been out there for 4 hours now sampling upper levels. very likely data has made it into the 18z. not as much of course as 00z will.

[fendie]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/

I count 11 special 18Z soundings from the east coast. The soundings from the planes in the immediate vacinity of Florence should be what's most important. The balloons get sent up twice a day anyway.

[tolakram]

Anyone able to confirm new data about environment made it into 18z model runs?

I sincerely hope you are prepared and not waiting until you can be "sure" because when you can be sure everyone else will be out there doing last minute preps as well. /scold

[PTrackerLA]

18z ICON fwiw

[tarheelprogrammer]

Anyone able to confirm new data about environment made it into 18z model runs?

I sincerely hope you are prepared and not waiting until you can be "sure" because when you can be sure everyone else will be out there doing last minute preps as well. /scold

I am getting up early tomorrow and getting gas (I live on the outskirts of Wilmington across the Cape Fear to the SW). I have water and I always keep plenty of can food. I have plenty of supplies and have a place to ride it out in my hometown of Fayetteville, NC. I am just wondering if I will need to get more gas and water.

[jdjaguar]

Anyone able to confirm new data about environment made it into 18z model runs?

I sincerely hope you are prepared and not waiting until you can be "sure" because when you can be sure everyone else will be out there doing last minute preps as well. /scold

I am getting up early tomorrow and getting gas (I live on the outskirts of Wilmington across the Cape Fear to the SW). I have water and I always keep plenty of can food. I have plenty of supplies and have a place to ride it out in my hometown of Fayetteville, NC. I am just wondering if I will need to get more gas and water.

I would do it today

[BobHarlem]

18z ICON fwiw

Image Link

It Shifted west a bit from 12z.

[GTStorm]

So the 18z BAMMs are out, and although no one really talks about them as model guidance, can they be a good indicator of what trend the track / global models might follow? Seems like they are showing an earlier turn-north scenario.

[Hammy]

Anyone able to confirm new data about environment made it into 18z model runs?

I sincerely hope you are prepared and not waiting until you can be "sure" because when you can be sure everyone else will be out there doing last minute preps as well. /scold

I am getting up early tomorrow and getting gas (I live on the outskirts of Wilmington across the Cape Fear to the SW). I have water and I always keep plenty of can food. I have plenty of supplies and have a place to ride it out in my hometown of Fayetteville, NC. I am just wondering if I will need to get more gas and water.

When in doubt, always err on the side of preparedness.

[tarheelprogrammer]

18z ICON fwiw

West trend slightly.

[otowntiger]

[quote

I sincerely hope you are prepared and not waiting until you can be "sure" because when you can be sure everyone else will be out there doing last minute preps as well. /scold [/quote].

I am getting up early tomorrow and getting gas (I live on the outskirts of Wilmington across the Cape Fear to the SW). I have water and I always keep plenty of can food. I have plenty of supplies and have a place to ride it out in my hometown of Fayetteville, NC. I am just wondering if I will need to get more gas and water.[/quote]
You are pretty much in the cross hairs- do what you need to do!

[chris_fit]

18z GFS coming in little right of previous run through 42hrs

[FLpanhandle91]

18z GFS coming in little right of previous run through 42hrs

More east west component to the ridge axis however.

[Spacecoast]

12z Euro ensembles...

[tolakram]

18Z, more ridge so far.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Do we know if the 18z GFS has some of the new data ingested?

[Kingarabian]

Do we know if the 18z GFS has some of the new data ingested?

00z Suite will have them.

[FLpanhandle91]

Ridge building more inland and Florence stronger through 66 hours. No change in position from 12z.

[Aric Dunn]

Do we know if the 18z GFS has some of the new data ingested?

00z Suite will have them.

P3 has been out there all afternoon. likely some data is in the 18z gfs.