ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[drewschmaltz]

Is there a way to get estimated rainfall totals from this run?

[tarheelprogrammer]

Sadly, I think this is the GFS's attempt to come to the same conclusion as the other models, which is the ridge will be slightly stronger and will force it to move west some. You can see it has a lot more of a western component to it overall on this run. Even the loop itself is further west, I think consensus is building for northeast SC to the Outer Banks as a hit. Here is to hoping the 0z trends completely off shore again

[Steve]

which = poppycock.

It’s the GFS. You can’t totally discount a stall/loop as other models have shown similar. Looks to nudge sw. But what it’s showing is a strengthening ridge overtop and stronger than 12z.

you absolutely can.. because it is the GFS lol

Haha. Yeah I know. But this is the opposite of what it usually does with breaking down those ridges.
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Speaking of the GFS, 25” rains are mostly offshore and toward Buxton, Cape Hatteras and Ocracoke Island.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 818&fh=186

[supercane4867]

Is there a way to get estimated rainfall totals from this run?

I guess you need a bigger color scale for it

[tolakram]

The run is fun (I guess you can call it fun) but in my opinion it seems to be getting very clear that NC/ SC have to take this very seriously. We'll see some refinement in the 0Z runs and more as more and more data gets input but we're already past the point where both models corrected the Irma track last year into Florida. Regardless weather it heads straight in or meanders off shore both models show the meandering which is going to result in a ton of rain and lots of flooding. I do hope everyone is prepared. So what if it misses, the prep is WORTH IT.

[drewschmaltz]

Speaking of the GFS, 25” rains are mostly offshore and toward Buxton, Cape Hatteras and Ocracoke Island.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 818&fh=186

Floyd was 15" Wilmington I think maxed out total rainfall for the storm at 19". By the time this run is over, the entire eastern half of NC is well over 25".

[supercane4867]

If this does pan out, the real numbers probably will be Harvey like

[HurricaneBelle]

Is there a way to get estimated rainfall totals from this run?

I guess you need a bigger color scale for it

"they've gone plaid"

[CalmBeforeStorm]

At 210 hrs Flo is still on the N.C. coast in this run and has been for over 3 days.

[drewschmaltz]

If this does pan out, the real numbers probably will be Harvey like

No one wanted to believe that Harvey run was real... Will you post the image again when Florence finally leaves NC? She's still there at hour 216.

[Steve]

At 210 hrs Flo is still on the N.C. coast in this run and has been for over 3 days.

Yeah. 3+. A deeper shortwave is across Minnesota early Monday and a trough split farther east in the Atlanti has brought a piece of energy close to Florence. We will see if there is an out or more movement with these things showing up.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 818&fh=204

[tarheelprogrammer]

I wonder if the ensemble members for the GFS come further west as well??????????????

[RevDodd]

Seems pretty reasonable. High five GFS.

Someone on the OBX must have run over the GFS's dog to earn that sort of punishment!

[Aric Dunn]

I wonder if the ensemble members for the GFS come further west as well??????????????

very likely.

[galaxy401]

Yeah....yeah....that run wasn't good.....That better be a busted run...but the trend is not looking good......

[hurricaneCW]

You better prepare if you live in the Carolinas, the gfs is spitting out Harvey level rainfall totals.

Gfs is now very close to what the other globals are showing, it's just a bit further east. Very good 5 day consensus actually.

[meriland29]

If this does pan out, the real numbers probably will be Harvey like

I am pretty sure this would be worse than Harvey...flood wise.

[emeraldislenc]

The trend is not looking good. Live on Emerald Isle which is an island near Morehead City. Lots of peoples are talking about the storm and saw lots of people buying water today.

[drewschmaltz]

5 full days.

[PTrackerLA]

77.7" but could be over water that's good right?