MM5 12z has a 975mb BOMB into Eastern Canada

[Stormsfury]

The current strong low responsible for severe weather currently in KS/MO is progged my the MM5 in 60 hours to become quite a BOMB in Eastern Canada.

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/loop/36km.slp.html

[stormraiser]

Uh, oh. It has the same storm being 987MB as it passes over my house. Batten down the hatches!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stormsfury]

This solution is heavily supported by the 12z GFS run.

IMHO, this is an increasing severe weather threat which is already being addressed by the SPC.

SPC AC 131712

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2003

VALID 141200Z - 151200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW
CRE 25 SSW FLO 40 WSW SOP 25 S DAN 25 SSE SHD 30 S MRB 35 N BWI 15
NNW PHL 25 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BVE 40 NW LFT
40 NW POE 40 SW ELD 50 SW MEM 15 SSW PAH 35 S LAF 45 N FWA 15 NNE
MTC ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 10 SSE
PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAB 15 N PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM COASTAL SC TO SRN NJ...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY
INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TUESDAY AS SPEED MAX SHIFTS ACROSS
THE TN VALLEY...THEN OFFSHORE AFTER DARK. IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...ROUGHLY 150-180M...WILL ENHANCE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHILE SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN
AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO UPSTATE NY.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY IS THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION
EXPECTED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED NEWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO ERN OH
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. HOWEVER INTENSE FORCING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY
GENERATE WIDESPREAD LAYERED CLOUDINESS RESULTING IN WEAK LOW-MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES SLOWING DESTABILIZATION BEFORE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. A NARROW LINE OF FORCED CONVECTION SHOULD
DEVELOP EARLY ALONG COLD FRONT AS IT MARCHES EWD ACROSS THE OH/TN
VALLEY REGION. WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT SEVERE THREAT TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

FARTHER DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THE DELMARVA AS
SFC HIGH RETREATS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THIS NWD TRANSPORT OF MUCH
HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES FOR POTENTIAL DEEP CONVECTION DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE PERIOD BECOMING QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION ONCE
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES RECOVER. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION...ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP ALONG RETREATING WARM FRONT...THEN FOLLOWED
BY MORE LINEAR STRUCTURE ALONG COLD FRONT LATE. ISOLATED TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE
THREAT WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

..DARROW.. 10/13/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR 0800Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0341Z, RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[weatherlover427]

I have never been able to understand heavily abbreviated "code" such as

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CRE 25 SSW FLO 40 WSW SOP 25 S DAN 25 SSE SHD 30 S MRB 35 N BWI 15 NNW PHL 25 ESE NEL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW BVE 40 NW LFT 40 NW POE 40 SW ELD 50 SW MEM 15 SSW PAH 35 S LAF 45 N FWA 15 NNE MTC ...CONT... 20 ENE EFK 20 ENE PWM.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW LRD 10 SSE PSX.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DAB 15 N PIE.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM COASTAL SC TO SRN NJ...