Severe Storms today NE OK / SE KA

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stu
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Severe Storms today NE OK / SE KA

#1 Postby stu » Mon Oct 13, 2003 9:59 am

Could be an interesting setup today across NE Oklahoma / SW Kansas

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Basically a trough with triple point is progg. To cross the area
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/progs/prog12hr.gif

Mid 60’s dewpoints are present in Texas and these will be advected ahead of the front into NE Oklahoma later today.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/sfc_ict.gif

I am not seeing a lot of vertical wind shear from the upper air plots but there may well be enough to trigger a few severe thunderstorms and possibly a supercell later on *IF* the storms can get routed into the boundary layer.

The RUC model show a bulls eye for Precip over the target area for 00 UTC as well .....
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#2 Postby TexasStooge » Mon Oct 13, 2003 11:27 am

Thank goodness it's not here in North Central Texas. However we North Texans are STILL overdue for another big rain storm.
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#3 Postby wx247 » Mon Oct 13, 2003 2:25 pm

SPC has my area in SLIGHT risk as well. I hope it doesn't storm. *sigh* We have had too many storms this year. Bring on a snowstorm.
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#4 Postby stu » Mon Oct 13, 2003 2:29 pm

Imm I dont know - latest obs show mid 60 dewpoints piling up ahead of the front - but the upper wind does not seem to be supportive of supercells - looks like squall front event - best be ready for some locally high winds
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#5 Postby wx247 » Mon Oct 13, 2003 2:37 pm

Thanks Stu. It is all cloudy and such here. I don't really think there is much instability to support anything too violent.
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#6 Postby StormCrazyIowan » Mon Oct 13, 2003 3:57 pm

Send it my way!!!!

:roll:

Hey, I can wish if I wanna!
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#7 Postby stu » Mon Oct 13, 2003 4:38 pm

the SPC have issued a MD ...

Image
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Oct 13, 2003 5:22 pm

stu wrote:the SPC have issued a MD ...

Image


Brand new severe thunderstorm watch now in effect.

Image

SF
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#9 Postby stu » Mon Oct 13, 2003 6:38 pm

Hold on to your hats overe there - the SPC 23z RUC2 meso model is throwing up a supercell param of 4 and a sig. torn param of 2 for NE OKC and SE Kansas.

I still think thjat this will a squall event- the upper winds just dont shear - but I would not rule out an embedded supercell and a tornado is never out of the question
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#10 Postby breeze » Mon Oct 13, 2003 6:46 pm

Garrett, you keep a lookout, anyway! ("Mom" is
shaking her finger and fussing!)
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#11 Postby Stormsfury » Mon Oct 13, 2003 8:21 pm

RUC model soundings

Precip.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.rucuspcp.html

Convective Precip.
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.rucusconpcp.html

500mb Vort. - Really digging
http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.rucus500v.html
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#12 Postby wx247 » Mon Oct 13, 2003 9:21 pm

Anyone got any new info? Looks like a pretty good squall coming in west of me in a couple of hours.
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#13 Postby wx247 » Mon Oct 13, 2003 9:33 pm

Oh no! Here we go. :o :roll:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
919 PM CDT MON OCT 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
BARTON COUNTY IN MISSOURI

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* AT 914 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO
70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
SHELDON TO 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSBURG...AND MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
LAMAR BY 930 PM CDT.

THE TOWNS OF IANTHA...IRWIN...NASHVILLE...OAKTON AND LAMAR HEIGHTS
ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS.

Only a couple of counties away.
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#14 Postby wx247 » Tue Oct 14, 2003 6:14 am

Well... nothing to write home about. 40-45 mph winds and lots of lightning, but that was about it.
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#15 Postby stu » Tue Oct 14, 2003 9:28 am

Well it looked good on paper - still as ever I will look out for the next one...
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