ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2661 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:00 pm

0Z GFS: 500 mb ridge weakest of last 4 GFS runs
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2662 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:04 pm

LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS: 500 mb ridge weakest of last 4 GFS runs

True. but I dont think this run is going out to sea. It's bending back westward 96hr-108hr. Chesapeake landfall?

Also of note, by hr 120 its 9mb stronger on this run (929 vs 938 18z)
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2663 Postby Ken711 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:04 pm

LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS: 500 mb ridge weakest of last 4 GFS runs


Recon data was helpful I assume. I'm betting the Euro moves north and east on it's track with the 0Z run as well with this new data. Probably not out to sea, but further up the NC coast more of an OBX hit.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2664 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:05 pm

Looks to have turned North at 120

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2665 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:08 pm

GfS a little displaced, but stronger at 120. Coming up north seems to be the key to lowest pressure with the gfs. It continues to intensify into the 9-teens at 132 just offshore.
Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2666 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Give it a few days Florence will end up staying out to sea.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2667 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:09 pm

I have to wonder if part of the east shift is a result of the GFS strengthening Florence too high and too quickly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2668 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:09 pm

Hr 132, just off of the outer banks, 913 mb and headed nnw...
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2669 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:10 pm

Looks like its stalling right off the north carolina coast.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2670 Postby fox13weather » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:10 pm

SFLcane wrote:Give it a few days Florence will end up staying out to sea.


Been my feeling all along, but still a long long way to go until that is confirmed.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2671 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:10 pm

LarryWx wrote:0Z GFS: 500 mb ridge weakest of last 4 GFS runs


Keep the east trends rolling. GFS going east again as well as the icon.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2672 Postby Steve » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:11 pm

Still dropping pressure at 138. 912mb then but offshore.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=138
Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2673 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:11 pm

Significant turn north, welcome too... Will be watching for the euro to follow. Yeah upper air data
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2674 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:11 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2675 Postby LarryWx » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:12 pm

Wow, 0Z UKMET never gets west of 75.2W and is way east of prior run (200+ miles)!! UKMET has been awful for Flo.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2676 Postby Hammy » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:14 pm

Completely stalled at 144 hour
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2677 Postby eastcoastFL » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:15 pm

Is the GFS still an outlier with that pressure at 911mb?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2678 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:15 pm

I told everyone earlier today. It is like the EC has a shield around it when it comes to major threats in the last decade or so. I am so glad models came to their senses before I had to start packing. I am lazy. Score one for the GFS.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2679 Postby shah83 » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:15 pm

CMC sticking to its guns.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2680 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Sep 08, 2018 11:16 pm

LarryWx wrote:Wow, 0Z UKMET never gets west of 75.2W and is way east of prior run (200+ miles)!! UKMET has been awful for Flo.


Wow that's an enormous shift. Can you share the text output?
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