ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Hurricaneman]

Completely stalled at 144 hour

I smell a move to the south looking at the GFS ridge patterns and it all depends on the shape and size of the loop

[Ken711]

Is it even possible to stall like that in that location?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Is it even possible to stall like that in that location?

See Hurricane Harvey, 2017.

[Steve]

CMC sticking to its guns.

It’s somewhat north at 72.

[Hammy]

CMC sticking to its guns.

Wasn't it way south with Harvey too if I remember right?

Is it even possible to stall like that in that location?

Storms stalling over or near NC isn't particularly uncommon, strangely enough.

[PandaCitrus]

I don't think a Category 5 Hurricane stalling off the Outer Banks for DAYS dumping god knows how many feet of rain on coastal NC and VA with multiple storm surge tide cycles can be considered good.

[wxmann_91]

Wow, 0Z UKMET never gets west of 75.2W and is way east of prior run (200+ miles)!! UKMET has been awful for Flo.

Remember when everyone was treating the UKMET like gospel?

[Ken711]

Is it even possible to stall like that in that location?

See Hurricane Harvey, 2017.

For 48 hours in the same location though?

[TheDreamTraveler]

It's horrible to take one model run for granted. Especially with the GFS which is an eastern outlier right now. Now if the other models and the Euro come around to this? Then I'd feel more comfortable in saying maybe a direct landfall isn't happening. But for right now? Just be on your guard and get prepared if you're in the path...Better to be safe than sorry.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Don't be the guy who lived on Mt St Helens...

[bob rulz]

Is it even possible to stall like that in that location?

It's possible for a storm to stall basically anywhere.

When does the next Euro run begin?

[Hammy]

Is it even possible to stall like that in that location?

It's possible for a storm to stall basically anywhere.

When does the next Euro run begin?

2am Eastern time.

[SunnyThoughts]

Seems to me with Florence just sitting and spinning in the same area for 3 days, the upwelling would weaken the system and the land interaction as well...I don't see how it would just continually get stronger and stronger as the hours go by.

[Steve]

Is it even possible to stall like that in that location?

See Hurricane Harvey, 2017.

For 48 hours in the same location though?

Longer than that. 180 is strongest so far. 908mb and a bit up the coast vs 937 and SW last run.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 900&fh=180

[TheDreamTraveler]

And just like that at hour 180 its moving west towards north carolina lmao wow. moving slowly of course but towards it

[PandaCitrus]

Now going on 72 hours of stall right off Outer Banks.

I'm sorry THIS IS NOT A GOOD SCENARIO FOR NORTH CAROLINA.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Keep in mind the GFS doesn't model ocean coupling well/if at all. This wouldn't be a Cat 5, this would be a weakening hurricane due to upwelling. Huge rainfall situation though.

[Ken711]

It's strengthening to 909 but wouldn't be weakening that close to the mainland for that long a period?

[Hammy]

Slow move towards NC with 906mb pressure no less.

[bob rulz]

Seems to me with Florence just sitting and spinning in the same area for 3 days, the upwelling would weaken the system and the land interaction as well...I don't see how it would just continually get stronger and stronger as the hours go by.

As far as I know, models can't properly incorporate upwelling into their intensity forecasts.