ATL: ISAAC - Models

[shiny-pebble]

And harvey was done until it got into the gulf

Why do people try to compare anything that might get in the Gulf to Harvey? I understand SSTs are very high there, but that doesnt mean Harvey 2.0.

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[Blinhart]

And harvey was done until it got into the gulf

Why do people try to compare anything that might get in the Gulf to Harvey? I understand SSTs are very high there, but that doesnt mean Harvey 2.0.

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Got to compare it to other storms that have had same type of modeling and environment.

[setxweathergal64]

And harvey was done until it got into the gulf

Why do people try to compare anything that might get in the Gulf to Harvey? I understand SSTs are very high there, but that doesnt mean Harvey 2.0.

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Harvey was just a year ago. So it isn't like there's been this multitude of storms to get into the gulf like you're making it sound. Maybe it is the most recent example to compare to.

[AubreyStorm]

Same colors the HWRF used.

This is Isacc?

[johngaltfla]

Hey peeps,look at the ICON model.

I would rather not. The Herbert Box nightmare from Irma and Maria are still fresh in my mind.

[gatorcane]

All the attention is on Florence as far as US impacts but the latest GFS has a huge weakness over the SE US and Florida left behind by Florence. So if this ends up making it to the Central Caribbean and can get past the outflow of Florence, it could be one to watch for some kind of recurve out of the Caribbean:

[AutoPenalti]

All the attention is on Florence as far as US impacts but the latest GFS has a huge weakness over the SE US and Florida left behind by Florence. So if this ends up making it to the Central Caribbean and can get past the outflow of Florence, it could be one to watch for some kind of recurve out of the Caribbean:

[]https://s8.postimg.cc/ybff0pdgl/gfs_z500a_Norm_watl_44.png[]

Assuming it doesn't hit the shredder.

[SoupBone]

All the attention is on Florence as far as US impacts but the latest GFS has a huge weakness over the SE US and Florida left behind by Florence. So if this ends up making it to the Central Caribbean and can get past the outflow of Florence, it could be one to watch for some kind of recurve out of the Caribbean:

Obviously with the caveat that anything can happen, both the Euro and GFS for the last several days have been showing this system continue due west. It's been actually strange that both models almost mirror each other and have for several runs. Again, I know that can change.

[SoupBone]

And harvey was done until it got into the gulf

Why do people try to compare anything that might get in the Gulf to Harvey? I understand SSTs are very high there, but that doesnt mean Harvey 2.0.

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A key difference, at least for these last several of model runs, is that both the Euro and GFS show a high pressure system parked over Cuba, Haiti, and the DR, forcing it west, at least for a few days beyond the islands.

[Blinhart]

And harvey was done until it got into the gulf

Why do people try to compare anything that might get in the Gulf to Harvey? I understand SSTs are very high there, but that doesnt mean Harvey 2.0.

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A key difference, at least for these last several of model runs, is that both the Euro and GFS show a high pressure system parked over Cuba, Haiti, and the DR, forcing it west, at least for a few days beyond the islands.

That is why I'm hoping that they are sending weather balloons up about every 3 hours in the Keys, US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and maybe the other islands that help out with NOAA and NWS.

[SoupBone]

00Z GFS almost identical to the last several runs.

[Gustywind]

18z HWRF wants to send an Irma into Guadeloupe

that's insane!

[SoupBone]

Latest 3 runs.

[KAlexPR]

Latest 3 runs.

Looks a bit suspect to me given that it's already stronger than what any of the global models showed up to this point.

[SoupBone]

Latest 3 runs.

Looks a bit suspect to me given that it's already stronger than what any of the global models showed up to this point.

Perhaps, but the Euro has been showing nearly the identical solution. Kind of curious why they aren't showing a lower pressure. The islands will be dealing with a hurricane on Thursday regardless, I'm just hoping it's a minimal hurricane. The wind shear beyond is what's supposed to weaken it beyond that.

[stormlover2013]

And harvey was done until it got into the gulf

Why do people try to compare anything that might get in the Gulf to Harvey? I understand SSTs are very high there, but that doesnt mean Harvey 2.0.

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Harvey was just a year ago. So it isn't like there's been this multitude of storms to get into the gulf like you're making it sound. Maybe it is the most recent example to compare to.[/quote

Meaning harvey weakened and then gained strength when it got in gom

[SoupBone]

00Z Euro at 96 hours has TS Isaac heading toward the islands. Nearly identical to its last 2 runs, and almost identical to the last 3 GFS runs.

[MississippiWx]

Hard to believe the globals don't really strengthen Isaac much more than current intensity. Have to believe this is bogus considering the available conditions.

[SoupBone]

FV3-GFS in agreement with both the GFS and Euro. Ends the run burying it in Honduras. 3rd run in a row with that solution.

[SoupBone]

Hard to believe the globals don't really strengthen Isaac much more than current intensity. Have to believe this is bogus considering the available conditions.

Maybe the intensity is questionable, but the track is being forecast by the Euro and GFS because of a high parked right on top and across the Caribbean, not allowing it to gain latitude. If that verifies, it won't have anywhere to go but Honduras/Nicaragua.