ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[hurricaneCW]

Whatever OTS hope people were expecting just isn't happening, models are zoning in on the Carolinas.

That slowdown worries me the most, we're talking possibly feet of rain with this.

[GCANE]

GFS run-to-run appears to show the ULL to Flo's east, on approach to the coast, getting better organized.
Meaning, a better poleward outflow channel is forecast.
Anticyclone to the south may disrupt equatorward outflow.

[catskillfire51]

So far looks like 30+ hours in roughly the same location

[catskillfire51]

HR 186 finally makes it to Virginia

[catskillfire51]

Finally off shore again moving East/Northeast

[somniture]

Is there anybody who keeps track of how accurate the respective models actually are? Something like the average NHC track errors for the year, but with models?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

[GCANE]

COAMPS has been one of the best performing models over the last 24 hrs with 0 positional error.

Here's the latest forecast track.

[bob rulz]

Is there anybody who keeps track of how accurate the respective models actually are? Something like the average NHC track errors for the year, but with models?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

Thanks, this certainly helps with active storms. I am interested in how a model performs over a whole season though. I'm sure it's a very time-consuming thing to put together though so I wouldn't blame anybody for having not done it.

[storm4u]

6z GFS has a max of 96 inches of rain just offshore

[GCANE]

Top-of-the-scale Latent-Heat Flux & Enthalpy as Flo hits the Gulf Stream.

Nearly perfect structure on radar.

Pretty much like what Harvey was forecast to be on approach to the TX coast last year.

[KWT]

That COAMPS is real impressive, long lasting at category 3/4 and there is strong agreement on this now.

Still it's forecasting about 85kts for 00z so another 12hrs time so that's a good benchmark as to whether it's being accurate or overly agressive.

[ronjon]

Mean of 00z UKMET ensembles into central SC. Mean of 00z ECM ensembles south of the operational run into northern SC.

https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/

[Ken711]

What does the EEMN represent?

[hohnywx]

What does the EEMN represent?

I believe that’s the Euro Ensmeble Mean.

[somniture]

Is there anybody who keeps track of how accurate the respective models actually are? Something like the average NHC track errors for the year, but with models?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

Thanks, this certainly helps with active storms. I am interested in how a model performs over a whole season though. I'm sure it's a very time-consuming thing to put together though so I wouldn't blame anybody for having not done it.

You can look at the NHC verification reports for each season. They discuss the model performance and break it down with charts and everything.

[Hurricane Andrew]

HWRF consistently weakening this before landfall; let me ask you guys, is it supposed to be able to pick up EWRCs?

An EWRC would expand windfield, and therefore surge and rain effects, so is not necessarily a good thing.

[bob rulz]

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/tang/tcguidance/

Thanks, this certainly helps with active storms. I am interested in how a model performs over a whole season though. I'm sure it's a very time-consuming thing to put together though so I wouldn't blame anybody for having not done it.

You can look at the NHC verification reports for each season. They discuss the model performance and break it down with charts and everything.

Thanks, that's awesome! I didn't know that NHC went into that much detail with their reports.

[ronjon]

What does the EEMN represent?

It's the mean track of the Euro ensemble run.

[ronjon]

Interesting nugget from the 5 am NHC disc:

It should be noted that both
the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means are a little to the left or west
of their operational runs. As a result, the NHC track forecast
lies to the left of the TVCA multi-model consensus, but is not as
far to the west as the FSSE and HCCA corrected consensus models at
day 5.

The FSSE and HCCA models correct for model bias during the history of the storm. They are apparently west of current projected track.

[Blown Away]

Little more spread in the 12z spaghetti model plots.