ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2941 Postby PTrackerLA » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:41 pm

The vast majority of GFS ensembles are keeping Florence offshore. I wonder what is causing such massive differences in the GEFS and EPS?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2942 Postby meriland29 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:44 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:The vast majority of GFS ensembles are keeping Florence offshore. I wonder what is causing such massive differences in the GEFS and EPS?



Except for FLV which is startlingly similar for Euro.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2943 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:55 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:The vast majority of GFS ensembles are keeping Florence offshore. I wonder what is causing such massive differences in the GEFS and EPS?


GFS has a known bias for wanting to move into ridging. I would be more inclined to believe the other models this run
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2944 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:55 pm

12Z Euro initializes a hair S of 0Z run and is further S at hour 30
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2945 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 09, 2018 12:59 pm

12Z Euro hour 42: ~50 miles S of 0Z Euro and, if anything, ridge actually slightly weaker so far
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2946 Postby OuterBanker » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:00 pm

At a church picnic and it's my birthday (67). But, I haven't got my wish yet. In fact it even looks worse today than before. Still hoping for Flo the fish. Current models would pretty much destroy the OBX.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2947 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:02 pm

12 FV3 GFS, Wilmington landfall
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2948 Postby gatorcane » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:04 pm

Most GFS ensembles never make landfall:

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2949 Postby Ken711 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:07 pm

gatorcane wrote:Most GFS ensembles never make landfall:


Weaker ridge? Euro may come in North and East of the 0z landfall perhaps.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2950 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:08 pm

12Z Euro now same location at hour 72 vs 0Z Euro with slightly weaker ridge. It may move N of 0z shortly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2951 Postby Ken711 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:08 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro now same location at hour 72 vs 0Z Euro with slightly weaker ridge. It may move N of 0z shortly.


OBX the target.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2952 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:11 pm

Ken711 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro now same location at hour 72 vs 0Z Euro with slightly weaker ridge. It may move N of 0z shortly.


OBX the target.


Probably further west.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2953 Postby toad strangler » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:11 pm

Euro looks much more progressive
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2954 Postby Blown Away » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:12 pm

Seems 12z Euro is flying compared to 00z?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2955 Postby LarryWx » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:12 pm

Now 12Z Euro 50 miles N of 0Z Euro hour 84. So, following model consensus.
Edit: ridge about same as 0Z.
Last edited by LarryWx on Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2956 Postby Ken711 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:12 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro now same location at hour 72 vs 0Z Euro with slightly weaker ridge. It may move N of 0z shortly.


OBX the target.


Probably further west.


In between the OBX and Wilmington?
Last edited by Ken711 on Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2957 Postby mcheer23 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:16 pm

Watch the full run instead of making assumptions half way through....
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2958 Postby PandaCitrus » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:16 pm

Euro bended wnw at 90 hours.

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2959 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:16 pm

12z EC still goes to Wilmington
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#2960 Postby PandaCitrus » Sun Sep 09, 2018 1:17 pm

Landfall at Wilmington.
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