ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro pounds NC Triad to Triangle with 8-12" of rain! 0Z was concentrated near Triangle and further east.

[ScottNAtlanta]

12Z Euro simulated IR Satellite

Thats going to have implications far inland to...people in Charlotte should be watching as well

[supercane4867]

Close up view is 948mb

[Aric Dunn]

Just for fun and this is only assuming the same general ridge placement and synoptic setup. And of course if it were to continue westward longer than the models suggest there would of course be mid/end of run changes as well.

this is just to show how small variation from a wobble for 3 hours or 2 or whatever can add up and change things. we see this all the time. where the same general shape to the track from the models but it just never quite makes the turn on time.

[toad strangler]

The Euro solution is pretty much a climo Carolinas hit IMO. And if climo wins out it will be a Cat 3. Just an opinion.

[fox13weather]

Classic case where the ECMWF has a better handle on the system and ends up winning the model war against the GFS.

There are no "winners" until a forecast does or does not verify. Yes, the ECMWF is considered the better of the two models, but no forecast is wrong or right until proven wrong or right.

[tolakram]

[ronjon]

The Euro solution is pretty much a climo Carolinas hit IMO. And if climo wins out it will be a Cat 3. Just an opinion.

I think a climo hit would be actually scrapping the OBX heading OTS afterward.

[ronjon]

The Euro solution is pretty much a climo Carolinas hit IMO. And if climo wins out it will be a Cat 3. Just an opinion.

I think a climo hit would be actually scrapping the OBX heading OTS afterward. Think its pretty rare to hit the coast moving W-NW. Last analog I can think of would be Hugo.

[txwatcher91]

The Euro solution is pretty much a climo Carolinas hit IMO. And if climo wins out it will be a Cat 3. Just an opinion.

I think a climo hit would be actually scrapping the OBX heading OTS afterward.

Actually climo would have been for Florence to recurve before Bermuda and OTS. We are in uncharted territory here when it comes to climo and Florence doesn’t seem to care. Topsail Beach, NC is usually a sweet spot for storms approaching from the south or southeast.

[chaser1]

If model guidance is more or less correct, then we could be looking at an Atlantic "double-landfall". Two hurricanes making landfall on the same day this Thursday (Carolina's and Lesser Antilles). Anyone know if that would be historical?

[MJGarrison]

Just for fun and this is only assuming the same general ridge placement and synoptic setup. And of course if it were to continue westward longer than the models suggest there would of course be mid/end of run changes as well.

this is just to show how small variation from a wobble for 3 hours or 2 or whatever can add up and change things. we see this all the time. where the same general shape to the track from the models but it just never quite makes the turn on time.

Thanks for making this. I think it underscores how small changes now can mean very different things for landfall. It also shows why GA tends not to get hit. The coast is concave and hurricanes tend to hit where the land is sticking out.


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[BobHarlem]

Wait, the euro sends it back offshore at 200h?

[toad strangler]

The Euro solution is pretty much a climo Carolinas hit IMO. And if climo wins out it will be a Cat 3. Just an opinion.

I think a climo hit would be actually scrapping the OBX heading OTS afterward.

I’m talking about a major hit. This is how it unfolds historically. And the region is due per NOAA major return rates.

[TheStormExpert]

Landfall intensity on 12z EC is about borderline CAT3/4

12z Euro stronger to with landfall compared to 00z.

[toad strangler]

The Euro solution is pretty much a climo Carolinas hit IMO. And if climo wins out it will be a Cat 3. Just an opinion.

I think a climo hit would be actually scrapping the OBX heading OTS afterward.

Actually climo would have been for Florence to recurve before Bermuda and OTS. We are in uncharted territory here when it comes to climo and Florence doesn’t seem to care. Topsail Beach, NC is usually a sweet spot for storms approaching from the south or southeast.

Fran, Hugo, & Isabel disagree. My context is when majors have hit this track is pretty similar regardless of the anomalies of origin.

[terstorm1012]

If model guidance is more or less correct, then we could be looking at an Atlantic "double-landfall". Two hurricanes making landfall on the same day this Thursday (Carolina's and Lesser Antilles). Anyone know if that would be historical?

1893 I think had the Sea Islands hurricane and the New York Hurricane strike in the same day, or within the same 48 hour period.

[wx98]

Wait, the euro sends it back offshore at 200h?

I’d put about zero stock in any model run past ~144 hours

[BobHarlem]

Wait, the euro sends it back offshore at 200h?

I’d put about zero stock in any model run past ~144 hours

Yeah I wish I grabbed it earlier, but the weathermodels plot removed the points. Either way somehow Florence's remnants end back up in Florida after all that.

[chaser1]

If model guidance is more or less correct, then we could be looking at an Atlantic "double-landfall". Two hurricanes making landfall on the same day this Thursday (Carolina's and Lesser Antilles). Anyone know if that would be historical?

1893 I think had the Sea Islands hurricane and the New York Hurricane strike in the same day, or within the same 48 hour period.

Thanks, i'll have to look up 1893 out of curiosity and see if this would be a first or not. I actually just created a new thread in the Tropics section after realizing that might be a more appropriate place for that discussion?