ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I noticed the 5PM track map shifted south a little. Not too surprised with Florence staying at the same latitude for over a day now. You called it Aric! Kudos!

I'm guessing that for every few hours the storm doesn't start making the north turn, the track will begin shifting from OBX/Wilmington towards Myrtle Beach, then Charleston, then Savannah. I have no idea what the confidence levels are for when it will turn. Someone had a graphic earlier that was very telling. While I think the OTS solutions are likely minimal (even the stalling off the coast ones), those slim chances probably turn into absolute no chance if this storm doesn't make the WNW turn soon.

this is just the 12z Euro track. again forecast tracks are not static so mid and end of models runs would adjust as well. this just assumes the wont change shape ( which if course it would) but a good visual on how it will likely look if Florence does not turn on schedule.

[CrazyC83]

I noticed the 5PM track map shifted south a little. Not too surprised with Florence staying at the same latitude for over a day now. You called it Aric! Kudos!

I'm guessing that for every few hours the storm doesn't start making the north turn, the track will begin shifting from OBX/Wilmington towards Myrtle Beach, then Charleston, then Savannah. I have no idea what the confidence levels are for when it will turn. Someone had a graphic earlier that was very telling. While I think the OTS solutions are likely minimal (even the stalling off the coast ones), those slim chances probably turn into absolute no chance if this storm doesn't make the WNW turn soon.

I'm hoping the south shifts end but I have a feeling they've just begun. I'm sure they'll be very small shifts but I'm in Charleston and getting veery concerned. The 5PM discussion was terrifying.

I'd also think if it goes farther south, it would be even stronger.

[Blinhart]

If by some chance this system gets below 24N, I think everyone will be on the edge of their seats trying to figure out what to do and where she will go. It would just take a little jog of around 70 miles to cause a big change.

[Raebie]

I noticed the 5PM track map shifted south a little. Not too surprised with Florence staying at the same latitude for over a day now. You called it Aric! Kudos!

I'm guessing that for every few hours the storm doesn't start making the north turn, the track will begin shifting from OBX/Wilmington towards Myrtle Beach, then Charleston, then Savannah. I have no idea what the confidence levels are for when it will turn. Someone had a graphic earlier that was very telling. While I think the OTS solutions are likely minimal (even the stalling off the coast ones), those slim chances probably turn into absolute no chance if this storm doesn't make the WNW turn soon.

this is just the 12z Euro track. again forecast tracks are not static so mid and end of models runs would adjust as well. this just assumes the wont change shape ( which if course it would) but a good visual on how it will likely look if Florence does not turn on schedule.

And most of the NC coastline would be in the NE quadrant. Not a good prospect either way. Prep.

[cjrciadt]

If by some chance this system gets below 24N, I think everyone will be on the edge of their seats trying to figure out what to do and where she will go. It would just take a little jog of around 70 miles to cause a big change.

If it was ragged , sure it would be that low. However, it wants to ramp up ASAP.

[CFLHurricane]

And most of the NC coastline would be in the NE quadrant. Not a good prospect either way. Prep.

Prep and run.

[birddogsc]

What's up with the front over the southeast? Is that just moving around the ridge?

[Hurricaneman]

Looking at the steering currents it’s nit going to turn more north for a while so I’m thinking a more delayed turn if you look at the 400 steering level

[eastcoastFL]

Looks some of the bands from Florence started reaching the buoy to her sw.

[JarrodB]

What estimate?

It is pretty clear Florida is in the clear. I just think it is possible for WSW when the ridge fills in and Florence will be on SE side of the high.

That is too bold of a statement to say, the likely hood is now for a SC/NC landfall, but with this system still not making the turn the likely hood is slowly converging to a Ga/SC landfall, and I say people from Daytona all the way up to NYC need to keep an eye on this system, this ridge building in will have a major effect and then it retrograding will also have an effect later on

Climatology is always meant to be broken.

Consider that it will be in a similar position soon as where Joaquin in 2015 formed. That ended up in the southern Bahamas!!! Some ensembles still go as far south as Florida, and as far north as the Northeast. No one is off the hook yet.

Not off the hook in terms of high surf and outer bands, but as far as a direct strike Florida chances are nil, less than 1%.

Now if I were a lumber, generator, battery, ect...salesmen I would ride the hype and tell everone in north Florida that the storm is a major threat.

That said I feel strongly most storms are overhyped. This one is not given the catastrophic potential.

[CFLHurricane]

What's up with the front over the southeast? Is that just moving around the ridge?

IIRC, Levi Cowan said it is supposed to fizzle out.

[Emmett_Brown]

On the vis sat loop, you can see a little bit of the outflow clouds in the N quadrant blowing from N to S. Just a little. Perhaps there is a N flow at some level helping to keep Flo pinned down and moving W. Of course, she could turn at any moment...

[KWT]

Crazy forecast from the NHC! 130kts forecast for a system that is a middling cat-1 is so impressive and obviously very worrying for the Carolinas.

[eastcoastFL]

When is it suppose to start turning north?

it should of started a WNW turn already.

I think its supposed to start right around now.

[Hurricaneman]

Anyone think this might stall se of the Carolinas and do the loop

[nascarfan999]

For those making predictions of track changes based on how long it continues W/WSW, note this and other spaghetti plots that I've seen indicate that just because a storm starts on one side of the track it doesn't mean it will end up as the outlier on that same side. For example, in the below chart the run that goes into north Florida does not start out as a southern outlier and the one that starts as a southern outlier is one of the ones that ends up near the Georgia/SC boarder (I think as it is tough to tell when they all merge together which one is which). Likewise, 1 of the 2 northern outliers does not go out to see and instead ends up back in the primary landfall area just southwest of the outer banks.

Bottom line, a change in initial track is more likely to trend the storm in that direction, but don't consider it to be a given. In fact, I am probably more concerned about the intensity and forward speed affecting the ultimate landfall than I am the initial storm movement.

*Disclaimer* I am in no ways an expert and just pointing out what I have noticed.

[MGC]

5pm discussion mentions expanding wind field.....Could see large surge potential when Florence comes ashore. Will be hitting coast at near right angle. Large waves, surge and winds in RFQ....MGC

[plasticup]

[im g]https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/buoycam/Z09A_2018_09_09_2110.jpg[/img]

Looks some of the bands from Florence started reaching the buoy to her sw.

That's so cool. Thanks for sharing!

[eastcoastFL]

[im g]https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/buoycam/Z09A_2018_09_09_2110.jpg[/img]

Looks some of the bands from Florence started reaching the buoy to her sw.

That's so cool. Thanks for sharing!

The water temps are insane. This buoy is 83.7deg the one ahead of her a bit is 85.5.

[LCfromFL]

Was in the Wally near the airport in Jax, FL this afternoon...the water aisle was nearly empty. After Matthew and Irma, people around here are erring on the side of prepping.