ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

12:00 PM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 25.0°N 60.2°W
Moving: W at 13 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

[Ntxw]

We'll probably see recon continuously find her stronger with each pass. She is still intensifying at a good rate.



Working on a W ring with WMG.

[tatertawt24]

Florence is making some pretty solid progress of developing a ring of -69C to -75C cloud temps around its eye. Im not all that familiar with the dvorak technique, but isn't that closing in on 6.0?

This seems like a decent page for Dvorak updates.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html

[meriland29]

Next NHC discussion will be extremely interesting...

[plasticup]

We'll probably see recon continuously find her stronger with each pass. She is still intensifying at a good rate.

[im g]https://images2.imgbox.com/d6/7a/Lecva3wa_o.gif[/img]

Working on a W ring with WMG.

Do you think they'll go through a third time?

[mcheer23]

We'll see if its just a jog, but she is finally north of 25.0....

[GCANE]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)


A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 16:42:37Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.07N 60.31W

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 943mb (27.85 inHg) - Extrapolated

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 114kts (131.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NE (41°) of center fix at 16:40:11Z

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 125kts (143.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the S (183°) of center fix at 16:44:30Z

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,332m (7,651ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,813m (9,229ft)


Remarks Section:

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 132kts (~ 151.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (54°) from the flight level center at 15:38:15Z

[Ken711]

We'll see if its just a jog, but she is finally north of 25.0....

Is it now where NHC expected it to be?

[MississippiWx]

Looks like she may have strengthened to ~140mph.

[GCANE]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Yea, definitely a jog to the WNW between the two VDMs. Reminds to be seen if just a trend, rapidly intensifying hurricanes do tend to jump around a lot.

[SunnyThoughts]

[nativefloridian]

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)


A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 16:42:37Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 25.07N 60.31W

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 943mb (27.85 inHg) - Extrapolated

F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 114kts (131.2mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 9 nautical miles to the NE (41°) of center fix at 16:40:11Z

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 125kts (143.8mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 8 nautical miles to the S (183°) of center fix at 16:44:30Z

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,332m (7,651ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 19°C (66°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,813m (9,229ft)


Remarks Section:

Sea Level Pressure Extrapolation From: 700mb
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 132kts (~ 151.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (54°) from the flight level center at 15:38:15Z

Ok....I'm confused. You posted the following message an hour ago. So I'm assuming the Center Coordinates will fluctuate depending on the transmittal time? Thanks for clarifying.

#1773 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:11 pm

Product: NOAA Vortex Message (URNT12 KWBC)
Transmitted: 10th day of the month at 16:04Z


A. Time of Center Fix: 10th day of the month at 15:35:18Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24.99N 60.14W

D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 50° at 9kts (From the NE at 10mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 113kts (130.0mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 6 nautical miles to the SW (235°) of center fix at 15:33:37Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 119kts (136.9mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (54°) of center fix at 15:38:13Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,391m (7,844ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 2,785m (9,137ft)

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 132kts (~ 151.9mph) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the NE (54°) from the flight level center at 15:38:15Z

[supercane4867]

Significant CDO cooling going on. She's pushing toward T7.0

[tatertawt24]

GOES-16 is the best weather invention since the barometer. <3

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=loop_of_the_day/goes-16/20180910000000&number_of_images_to_display=400&loop_speed_ms=25

[Aric Dunn]

that jog wnw right at the same time of a that convective burst. could be related to that. need to wait and see.

[jlauderdal]

Florence is making some pretty solid progress of developing a ring of -69C to -75C cloud temps around its eye. Im not all that familiar with the dvorak technique, but isn't that closing in on 6.0?

This seems like a decent page for Dvorak updates.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html

You have recon, i suggest using that.

[KWT]

Florence is stair stepping at the moment, 3hrs more Westerly followed by a d cent WNW jog. Longer term average probably around 280.

I think the NHC track is good but maybe it will end up a touch right as that is pretty typical of storms with northward motion.

[Ken711]

that jog wnw right at the same time of a that convective burst. could be related to that. need to wait and see.

When was NHC forecasting the start of wnw turn?

[jlauderdal]

Next NHC discussion will be extremely interesting...

Every nhc discussion is interesting and is a must to fully understand the past and future