ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[supercane4867]

12z EC is still near SC/NC border

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z EC is still near SC/NC border

What does it see that the other models do not see? Is it because it is weaker? Stronger would be more poleward. I thought that was the way it happens?

[Ken711]

12z EC is still near SC/NC border

Did the intensity look reasonable, wasn't that concern some had with the 0z run.

[SCHawkFan]

12z EC is still near SC/NC border

It is not backing off that track.

[p1nheadlarry]

12z EC is still near SC/NC border

Did the intensity look reasonable, wasn't that concern some had with the 0z run.

952 but not highest res, so probably in the 940's. I'd say that's fairly realistic.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z EC is still near SC/NC border

What does it see that the other models do not see? Is it because it is weaker? Stronger would be more poleward. I thought that was the way it happens?

No, it has to do with how it's modeling the ridge. A hurricane can't really bust through a ridge (think Andrew in 1992, unexpectedly became a Cat 5 but never drifted poleward), what the GFS is showing is that the edge of the ridge is positioned in such a way that causes Florence to slip around it. The ECMWF is showing a more established ridge that drives the storm into NC/SC.

[Ken711]

12z EC is still near SC/NC border

Did the intensity look reasonable, wasn't that concern some had with the 0z run.

952 but not highest res, so probably in the 940's. I'd say that's fairly realistic.

Thanks, does it continue inland NW very far?

[PTPatrick]

GFs FV3 brings it ashore later Thursday just between morehead and Wilmington ...still sittin between Wilmington and Jacksonville Friday evening. Only big difference really in that and the gFS is a bit of distance and FV3 is weaker than operational GFS (although th still formidable). And the gfs still brings it in later. 12z CMC is very similar to Gfs with the stall over the morehead ObX area. UK in the morehead area. New Euro is ashore just south of Wilmington but moves it a bit further inland by Friday morning.

If there is one trend that’s clear it’s that steering still all but collapses near landfall. That will make this very tough to call for landfall point.

[jdjaguar]

EURO has FLO inland east of Charlotte 96hrs

[txwatcher91]

Euro shifted north some and no longer bends this west once inland. Instead it seems to take the center up to the Raleigh area. See below link.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

[Hammy]

12z EC is still near SC/NC border

What does it see that the other models do not see? Is it because it is weaker? Stronger would be more poleward. I thought that was the way it happens?

I believe that's the case if you have a northward steering (often with an approaching trough or shear wall) where the low-level flow is towards the west--both are absent at the moment so it's only the ridge.

[xironman]

12z EC is still near SC/NC border

What does it see that the other models do not see? Is it because it is weaker? Stronger would be more poleward. I thought that was the way it happens?

Stronger, more poleward is a rule of thumb. But on a given occasion it is the state of the atmosphere has the final say. In the real time http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time for steering currents for different strengths.

[jdjaguar]

Did the intensity look reasonable, wasn't that concern some had with the 0z run.

952 but not highest res, so probably in the 940's. I'd say that's fairly realistic.

Thanks, does it continue inland NW very far?

EU has FLO near Florence/ Fayetteville NC 96 hours

[tarheelprogrammer]

Euro shifted north some and no longer bends this west once inland. Instead it seems to take the center up to the Raleigh area. See below link.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

Trending toward the GFS.

[txwatcher91]

Euro shifted north some and no longer bends this west once inland. Instead it seems to take the center up to the Raleigh area. See below link.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

Trending toward the GFS.

Trending to the FV3 which has been remarkably good with Florence. GFS is too far east, consensus is basically NHC track and between ILM and MHX is the likely landfall spot IMO. NHC is spot on here and doing a fantastic job, Euro is coming in line and GFS will in a few days.

[Ken711]

Move back east with HWRF to Wilmington.

[supercane4867]

It’s pretty much locked on a Carolina landfall by now. No OTS situation unless some miracle happens LOL

[hurricaneCW]

The Euro initialized this about 30mb weaker than it currently is, makes me think it's still too far west.

Gun to my head I would go with a track in between the Euro and Gfs.

[MississippiWx]

Euro shifted north some and no longer bends this west once inland. Instead it seems to take the center up to the Raleigh area. See below link.
http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf_florence.png

Trending toward the GFS.

No model has trended toward the GFS.

[jdjaguar]

The Euro initialized this about 30mb weaker it currently is, makes me think it's still too far west.

Gun to my head I would go with a track in between the Euro and Gfs.

That just so happens to be the NHC Official track.