ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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meriland29
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2001 Postby meriland29 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:13 pm

Wheb is recon coming back in?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2003 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:15 pm

Man, I can't help but admire what a beautiful storm she is. Really feel for everyone in her path, hopefully it's not this strong when it comes ashore.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2004 Postby OuterBanker » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:21 pm

Oh crap. It's gaining latitude.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2005 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:21 pm

OuterBanker wrote:Oh crap. It's gaining latitude.

Nags Head? I do hope you've left by now... :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2006 Postby hohnywx » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:23 pm

JarrodB wrote:Watches by the 5pm advisory?....if not I am almost certain they will be up 11pm.


NHC previously stated Tuesday AM. They are issued 48 hours before the onset of TS force winds.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2007 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:23 pm

Raebie wrote:
ronjon wrote:From Dr Jeff Masters - NC shoreline vulnerable to high storm surges.

Landfalling Category 4 hurricanes are rare in the mainland U.S., with just 24 such landfalls since 1851—an average of one every seven years. (Category 5 landfalls are rarer still, with just three on record). All but three of these 27 landfalls by Cat4s and Cat5s have occurred south of South Carolina’s latitude; thus, Florence will be in very select company if it manages to make landfall at Category 4 strength in North or South Carolina.

If Florence hits the coast of North or South Carolina as a Category 3 or stronger hurricane, we should expect to see record storm surge heights, with a 15 – 20’ surge very possible, according to two experts I communicated with today. Dr. Robert Young, Professor of Coastal Geology at Western Carolina University, says that “the track of Hurricane Florence, combined with its expected size and strength at landfall and the unique coastal geomorphology of the region, is likely to result in a record storm surge along portions of the warning area.” And according to storm surge expert Dr. Hal Needham, “we could definitely see a 20+ foot storm surge/storm tide in the Carolinas. Even if Florence weakens a bit in the time right before landfall, the surge heights correlate better with the pre-landfall winds than the winds at landfall.”

It’s a good thing that landfalls by such strong hurricanes are rare along the South Carolina and North Carolina coast, since this coastline is extremely vulnerable to high storm surges. Two of these three historical Carolina Category 4 hurricanes generated a storm tide of 18 - 20 feet: Hugo of 1989 and Hazel of 1954. The other storm--Gracie of 1959--did not (it hit at low tide, significantly reducing the coastal flooding). The storm tide is the combination of the storm surge and the normal lunar tide, measured in height above sea level. The National Hurricane Center uses the terminology “height above ground level” when discussing the storm tide, meaning the height the surge plus tide gets above the normal high tide mark.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Expect-Storm-Surge-15-20-Feet-Landfalling-Category-4-Storm-Carolinas


If this thing does come into Wilmington around 2 AM Friday morning, that's right at high tide.


Truthfully, Hazel and Gracie are Questionably considered true cat 4 landfalls in the Carolinas. Both were weakening at landfall and data from the time is just not great. Hugo certainly was bona fide. But if there is any doubt about Hazel’s winds, there may never never been full fledged cat 4 landfall above the SC border, at least not on record. That isn’t to say a storm of Hazels size magnitude in this day and age is not to be taken seriously. It would like cause major crazy damage. Hazel certainly had impressive inland winds likely due to its fast forward speed and later time year(maybe it was hybridizing?)
Last edited by PTPatrick on Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:34 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2008 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:26 pm

hohnywx wrote:
JarrodB wrote:Watches by the 5pm advisory?....if not I am almost certain they will be up 11pm.


NHC previously stated Tuesday AM. They are issued 48 hours before the onset of TS force winds.

And their own charts predict the start of TS winds on late wednesday. So logically they would go up late today.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2009 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:26 pm

meriland29 wrote:Wheb is recon coming back in?

Entering the eye again momentarily:

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2010 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:27 pm

Florence looks great today. Told my folks in Wilmington they should consider evacuating but they'll just wait and see what local authorities recommend.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2011 Postby meriland29 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:28 pm

plasticup wrote:
meriland29 wrote:Wheb is recon coming back in?

Entering the eye again momentarily:

Image



Looks like a lot more of that salmon pink color in there....that intensity is relentless..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2012 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:30 pm

EWRC beginning, southern quad??

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2013 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:31 pm

GCANE wrote:EWRC beginning, southern quad??

[im g]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/last24hrs.gif[/img]

That's where the plane is right now. Keep your eyes peeled for a double maximum.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2014 Postby PavelGaborik10 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:35 pm

GCANE wrote:EWRC beginning, southern quad??

Image


Wouldn't be great timing. If it was the beginning of an EWRC, it'd likely just be completing right about as she enters even more favorable conditions.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2015 Postby dukeblue219 » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:35 pm

All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2016 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:36 pm

PavelGaborik10 wrote:
GCANE wrote:EWRC beginning, southern quad??


Wouldn't be great timing. If it was the beginning of an EWRC, it'd likely just be completing right about as she enters even more favorable conditions.

Was just about to say that. Then again, it might mean she EWRCs again right before landfall, a la Katrina.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2017 Postby Raebie » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:38 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.


The schools will be used as shelters for those evacuating. That takes time to set up.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2018 Postby plasticup » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:38 pm

Did the recon plane stop updating? Nothing in over 20 minutes.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2019 Postby KC7NEC » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:39 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.
The thing about major regional wide events is they are extremely resource intensive. Closing things early, or even not in the direct path help the overall area to prepare for the event.

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// Opinions are my own, I am not a Meteorologist. Consult the NHC or Local NWS and Emergency Management for current information in your area. //

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#2020 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Sep 10, 2018 2:40 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.


Starting at noon tomorrow, they are reversing 4 major highways away from the coast headed inland... I suppose they don't want busses, etc caught out in that contraflow. I"ve been surfing around other blogs and message boards and many people are worried that their employers were not notified in advance. Many are suppose to report to work tomorrow, with no way of knowing if there will be a way to get home with all the hwy reversals. I'm afraid its going to be a mess...but I hope it works out for everyone.
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