ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[meriland29]

EWRC beginning, southern quad??

Wouldn't be great timing. If it was the beginning of an EWRC, it'd likely just be completing right about as she enters even more favorable conditions.

I have heard conflicting things about that...that either it would enhance her, or keep her from ever regaining the same momentum. Any thoughts?

[plasticup]

EWRC beginning, southern quad??

[i mg]http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_06L/web/last24hrs.gif[/img]

Wouldn't be great timing. If it was the beginning of an EWRC, it'd likely just be completing right about as she enters even more favorable conditions.

I have heard conflicting things about that...that either it would enhance her, or keep her from ever regaining the same momentum. Any thoughts?

In favorable conditions like this, the EWRC would likely complete successfully and give us a storm as least as strong as we are seeing now.

[jdjaguar]

All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.

Hard to attend school while at the same time evacuate
With your family

[dukeblue219]

All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.

The schools will be used as shelters for those evacuating. That takes time to set up.

Oh ok, that makes some more sense.

[sponger]

All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.

Starting at noon tomorrow, they are reversing 4 major highways away from the coast headed inland... I suppose they don't want busses, etc caught out in that contraflow. I"ve been surfing around other blogs and message boards and many people are worried that their employers were not notified in advance. Many are suppose to report to work tomorrow, with no way of knowing if there will be a way to get home with all the hwy reversals. I'm afraid its going to be a mess...but I hope it works out for everyone.

That is what a sick day is for.

[plasticup]

How worried should we be that the airplane hasn't sent an update in 30 minutes, just before it entered the southern eyewall?

[michelinj]

I have heard conflicting things about that...that either it would enhance her, or keep her from ever regaining the same momentum. Any thoughts?

I think it all depends on how successful the EWRC is. I’m not sure the ins and outs of why some work and cause further strengthening and why some tend to limit storms but given how Florence has undergone RI twice in her lifetime now and the good conditions ahead, I would imagine she’d complete it fine.

[jlauderdal]

All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.

put the kids to work for preps just like irma

[tolakram]

We have a new thread for evacuation info, closures and observations.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=119920

[Hurricane Andrew]

How worried should we be that the airplane hasn't sent an update in 30 minutes, just before it entered the southern eyewall?

Their transmitting equipment flunks from time to time...Hurricane Hunting is fairly safe in military terms; only six aircraft have ever been lost, and at least one was during a non-operational flight (earlier this year, actually).

[Kingarabian]

Did the recon plane stop updating? Nothing in over 20 minutes.

HDOBS from Olivia's mission were delayed as well. Probably some comm issues.

[dukeblue219]

Did the recon plane stop updating? Nothing in over 20 minutes.

Latest burst just came through finally... 939.7 extrapolated... 120kt peak unflagged SFMR. Sonde fell through 143kt aloft and splashed in 941mb with 13kt wind (supporting 940 at the surface)

[plasticup]

All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.

Starting at noon tomorrow, they are reversing 4 major highways away from the coast headed inland... I suppose they don't want busses, etc caught out in that contraflow. I"ve been surfing around other blogs and message boards and many people are worried that their employers were not notified in advance. Many are suppose to report to work tomorrow, with no way of knowing if there will be a way to get home with all the hwy reversals. I'm afraid its going to be a mess...but I hope it works out for everyone.

That is what a sick day is for.

25% of Americans don't get sick days (source, Table 5).

When people complain about poor compliance with evacuations I have to wonder whether they just don't understand the abject poverty that many Americans live in. They can't travel 10 miles to reach a hospital, let alone 200 miles inland.

[cycloneye]

Air Force plane just departed from Savannah,Georgia.

[PavelGaborik10]

EWRC beginning, southern quad??

Wouldn't be great timing. If it was the beginning of an EWRC, it'd likely just be completing right about as she enters even more favorable conditions.

I have heard conflicting things about that...that either it would enhance her, or keep her from ever regaining the same momentum. Any thoughts?

At this stage an EWRC would likely result in a temporary slight decrease in Maximum wind speed, but an increase in the Storms windfield. Being this far out it would almost surely complete it's EWRC, and re-gain this strength and then some, as even an even larger storm.

EWRC's aren't predictable, but if I had to guess we should see two before it makes landfall. The best case for NC would for it to begin an EWRC shortly before landfall that it's unable to complete, resulting in a slightly weaker storm. I think that along with Dry air is the best shot NC has of this thing coming ashore as anything less than a low-end cat 4. Just my .2

[WeatherNewbie]

Florence looks great today. Told my folks in Wilmington they should consider evacuating but they'll just wait and see what local authorities recommend.

both you and your folks threatened by hurricanes at the same time... that is pretty crazy.

[FLpanhandle91]

939.9mb. 120kt SFMR unflagged.

193030 2516N 06046W 7169 02390 9397 +188 +120 151011 014 028 005 03

193230 2523N 06042W 7216 02417 9512 +155 +153 131098 106 120 027 00

[meriland29]

How long does a ERC usually take to complete on avg?

[GCANE]

Latest estimated wind field
Using as a benchmark if an EWRC is indeed starting.

[supercane4867]

I won't say She's starting an EWRC until I see a new microwave pass to confirm it.