ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Aric Dunn · #2061 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:25 pm

FLorence is finally in the CONUS view..

supercane4867 · #2062 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:25 pm

galaxy401 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
aperson wrote:I don't see any evidence of double wind maxima in the SW quad on this recon pass. Is there any reason to believe an ERC is occurring other than this being around the time one usually shows up?

Likely no EWRC at the moment. We should see intensity leveling off before an EWRC, but in fact it's still stregnthening

Didn't Maria last year reach it's peak intensity during an EWRC? I know it was still strengthening when it started.

Just having a double wind maximum doesn't directly correlates to the start of EWRC. An EWRC offically starts when the outer eyewall begin to contract and replacing the inner eyewall. Maria had her windspeed leveled off for several hours before the EWRC process began.

eastcoastFL · #2063 Postby **eastcoastFL** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:25 pm

Stair stepping?

Nimbus · #2064 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:26 pm

Looks like Florence may miss the next forecast point to the north which makes a big difference at landfall. Could be a wobble or EWRC I suppose but I'm thinking maybe the GFS was right if this verifies overnight.

Aric Dunn · #2065 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:27 pm

Also recon is doing so weird flying out there. no Delta pattern for them lol ..

supercane4867 · #2066 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:28 pm

Nimbus wrote:Looks like Florence may miss the next forecast point to the north which makes a big difference at landfall. Could be a wobble or EWRC I suppose but I'm thinking maybe the GFS was right if this verifies overnight.

Missing one forecast point slightly couldn't mean less to future track 5 days out. She also missed a forecast point earlier to its south.

Nimbus · #2067 Postby **Nimbus** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:29 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
Nimbus wrote:Looks like Florence may miss the next forecast point to the north which makes a big difference at landfall. Could be a wobble or EWRC I suppose but I'm thinking maybe the GFS was right if this verifies overnight.

Missing one forecast point slightly couldn't mean less to future track 5 days out. She also missed a forecast point earlier to its south.

Unless you live in south Carolina and the trend continues overnight.

1900hurricane · #2068 Postby **1900hurricane** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:31 pm

Recent ATMS and F-15 passes don't seem to indicate any hint of eyewall replacement.

ScottNAtlanta · #2069 Postby **ScottNAtlanta** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:33 pm

Gov of SC has just ordered evacuations on the entire SC coast
https://www.postandcourier.com/news/eva ... 683a8.html

supercane4867 · #2070 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:35 pm

https://twitter.com/RyanBretonWX/status/1039223724929699840

supercane4867 · #2071 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:40 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Recent ATMS and F-15 passes don't seem to indicate any hint of eyewall replacement.

NYR__1994 · #2072 Postby **NYR__1994** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:41 pm

Nimbus wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
Nimbus wrote:Looks like Florence may miss the next forecast point to the north which makes a big difference at landfall. Could be a wobble or EWRC I suppose but I'm thinking maybe the GFS was right if this verifies overnight.

Missing one forecast point slightly couldn't mean less to future track 5 days out. She also missed a forecast point earlier to its south.

Unless you live in south Carolina and the trend continues overnight.

If you live in South Carolina you should be preparing for a landfalling Cat3+ hurricane......

#2073 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:41 pm

1900hurricane wrote:Recent ATMS and F-15 passes don't seem to indicate any hint of eyewall replacement.

they sending in warplanes for recon now, all hands on deck :roll:

#2074 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:42 pm

People need to realize now that this is a life-threatening situation. I get chills when I see storms like this...the same chills I felt a year ago this date as I sat under Irma.

Look up Rockport, TX, 2017 if you want to see what 145mph can do. Look up Miami-Dade County, 1992, if you want to see what 165mph can do.

If you are in the path of this thing, get to a place where you aren't. If you can't, prepare to be isolated in a disaster area for a minimum of days, possibly a week plus.

#2075 Postby **Hurricane Andrew** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:42 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
1900hurricane wrote:Recent ATMS and F-15 passes don't seem to indicate any hint of eyewall replacement.
they sending in warplanes for recon now, all hands on deck

It's an F-15, they're expendable now... 8-)

supercane4867 · #2076 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:43 pm

New convective burst are forming around the eye

ChucktownStormer · #2077 Postby **ChucktownStormer** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:43 pm

dukeblue219 wrote:All schools in South Carolina are closed starting Tuesday morning from just north of Columbia to the ocean. It feels to me like Columbia schools could easily be open another day, but hey, I'm not in charge.

After the Floyd foul-up of 1999, Governors here don't mess around. Especially in an election year. I think they burned that governor at the stake or may as well have. McMaster would evacuate the whole damn state if he could.

I don't blame him. During Floyd, I remember playing football on I-26 and peeing in bushes that were normally blurs during a normal commute. Better safe than sorry here.

EquusStorm · #2078 Postby **EquusStorm** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:49 pm

Is the oceanic heat content here sufficient to have a brief Cat 5? I mean seems like the sky's the limit with other parameters but I guess that'd be a limiting factor. Not like 150 vs 157 makes an impact difference at all but it certainly does in the record books and public perceptions

Ken711 · #2079 Postby **Ken711** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:50 pm

Would any of this mornings sampling data on the ridging already have been included in the 12z runs? Do they have a better picture yet how this ridging is setting up, especially how far East over the mainland?

supercane4867 · #2080 Postby **supercane4867** » Mon Sep 10, 2018 3:51 pm

VIS loop before sunset

ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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