ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[toad strangler]

How good is the NAM with ridge placements? It is trending weaker with the ridge and further east with Florence. Could it be on to something and trending toward GFS?

NAM is a mesoscale model and really isn't meant for tropical use. Especially beyond 48 hours IMO.

[tolakram]

Can someone point me to the models indicating total rainfall predictions out of Flo?

Thank you
John

Here's the Euro version over at weather.us

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-carolina/acc-total-precipitation/20180916-1800z.html

[tolakram]

12Z GFS

[BobHarlem]

18z intensity models

[ronjon]

Can someone point me to the models indicating total rainfall predictions out of Flo?

Thank you
John

Another version.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1039222666748731392/photo/2

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAM has Florence even further off the coast at hour 75

[tolakram]

12Z HWRF

[tolakram]

12Z HMON

[tolakram]

12Z Model Plots (sorry if these are duplicated)

[tarheelprogrammer]

ICON model is further east at 18z as well as the NAM, GFS coming up.

[tallywx]

12Z Model Plots (sorry if these are duplicated)

Consensus track now appears to be Morehead City to Greenville to Rocky Mount as opposed to Wilmington to Fayetteville to Raleigh. That slight shift would take millions of people out of the RFQ.

[Shell Mound]

12Z Model Plots (sorry if these are duplicated)
https://i.imgur.com/lnhjghM.png
https://i.imgur.com/ieBY5r3.png

Consensus track now appears to be Morehead City to Greenville to Rocky Mount as opposed to Wilmington to Fayetteville to Raleigh. That slight shift would take millions of people out of the RFQ.

The EPS/ECMWF had a notorious short-term W bias with Irma last year as that hurricane neared South FL and the Keys. I'm not surprised to see the E shifts in guidance. I'm not downplaying this storm, but I've always suspected the worst-case scenario(s) were improbable. This will still be a very serious event, but far less than it could have been, at least in my humble view.

[tolakram]

12Z FV3-GFS

[Emmett_Brown]

18z GFS running... it has Flo a bit east; grazes the Outer Banks, and appears to stall or loop just offshore.

[supercane4867]

Crazy GFS once again wants Flo to do a loop offshore while deepening into unrealistic pressures. That's why we need FV3 GFS to replace the current version...

[Blinhart]

12Z Model Plots (sorry if these are duplicated)
https://i.imgur.com/lnhjghM.png
https://i.imgur.com/ieBY5r3.png

Consensus track now appears to be Morehead City to Greenville to Rocky Mount as opposed to Wilmington to Fayetteville to Raleigh. That slight shift would take millions of people out of the RFQ.

The EPS/ECMWF had a notorious short-term W bias with Irma last year as that hurricane neared South FL and the Keys. I'm not surprised to see the E shifts in guidance. I'm not downplaying this storm, but I've always suspected the worst-case scenario(s) were improbable. This will still be a very serious event, but far less than it could have been, at least in my humble view.

This will be a horrible position for all the Carolina's and DelMarVa. There will be continous powerful winds with rain on top of it for days. This is a horrific situation, just because a system comes in 40 miles further North than one spot doesn't mean it will not be serious. You are talking about serious storm surge going up all the bays, including Chesapeake Bay.

[Emmett_Brown]

18z GFS running... it has Flo a bit east; grazes the Outer Banks, and appears to stall or loop just offshore.

And... now she is heading slowly SW just offshore NC at 132 hours

[Ken711]

18z GFS running... it has Flo a bit east; grazes the Outer Banks, and appears to stall or loop just offshore.

Still off the OBX like the 12z through hours 120-132, but it looks slightly South.

[MGC]

18Z GFS loops Cat-5 Flo off Hatteras....I'll get the popcorn ready.....MGC

[supercane4867]

18z GFS has Flo do a loop off OBX then hitting Wilmington from the east