WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Another visible image just because.

[mrbagyo]

Raw T numbers are skyrocketing up.

[Highteeld]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 16//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
USING ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED, 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW/KNES (T6.0/115 KTS) AND RJTD (T5.5/102 KTS)
DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30 C), AND RADIAL OUTFLOW,
IS SUPPORTIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING WESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT STEERING INFLUENCE ON TY 26W AND THE TRACK WILL REMAIN
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE
TYPHOON TO INTENSIFY TO 135 KNOTS BY TAU 48 BEFORE LEVELING OFF.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY STRONG AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK FORECAST
WITH ONLY ABOUT 75 NM OF SPREAD BETWEEN THE MEMBERS BY TAU 72. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE VARIES MORE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE JTWC FORECAST
INTENSITY IS PLACED ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT COAMPS-NAVGEM INTENSITY AND THE HWRF INTENSITY FROM THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH,
BASED ON THE TIGHT SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STR TO THE NORTH BUT WILL BEGIN TO TRACK MORE NORTHWESTWARD. AFTER
TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER THE LUZON STRAIT AND PASS BETWEEN
TAIWAN AND THE PHILIPPINES WITH AN INTENSITY OF 115-125 KNOTS. THIS
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF FACTORS (PRIMARILY,
DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED VWS) THAT MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
LESS FAVORABLE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS A WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES BETWEEN HWRF (115 KNOTS) AND COAMPS-NAVGEM (70 KNOTS)
BY TAU 12. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH ONLY
110 NM OF SPREAD AMONG THE MEMBERS AND, FOR THAT REASON, CONFIDENCE
IN THE EXTENDED JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.//
NNNN

[Highteeld]

High-end cat 5 in the making

[euro6208]

Looking much more powerful than Florence

Sadly Dvorak will keep it a lot weaker.

[1900hurricane]

Mangkhut already has dual outflow channels (TEJ and TUTT low to the east), but poleward outflow has still been a little lame (a symptom of the powerful ridge sending it on a WSW path). However, it may soon add a rare third outflow channel north into upper level low east of the Ryukyus.

[supercane4867]

Future intensity and impacts could be similar to Meranti 16

[mrbagyo]

Future intensity and impacts could be similar to Meranti 16

The impact could be worse if Mangkhut goes directly over HK.

[mrbagyo]

Here's another look

[Highteeld]

Mangkhut reminding us why the WPAC is the ultimate basin

[michelinj]

Mangkhut reminding us why the WPAC is the ultimate basin

WPAC. September/October will always be the best conditions for monster storms for me. Historically the stats don’t lie.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Impressive. Based on the JTWC five-day forecast, Mangkhut is expected to yield an additional 32.7475 units (in just five days!) on top of the 6.8 accrued earlier, up to the 21/1800Z update. However, that value could be conservative since it is very likely for Mangkhut to exceed the predicted wind values. It could be a category 4 (and/or higher) for at least four consecutive days due to the extremely favorable conditions. It is also looking increasingly possible for Mangkhut to strengthen to a high-end category 5, given the favorability of its environment in the expected path.

Btw, I'm getting used to these Excel spreadsheets and calucations. I'm an accounting student anyway. This is fun.

[euro6208]

SATCON is already at 120 knots. In comparison Florence is 118 knots. But that has recon.

[1900hurricane]

SATCON has also been hamstrung by a low outlier ADT, which is only now rising from the 82 kt it was sitting at for most of the past 24 hours.

[mrbagyo]

Just like that, eye temp is now positive double digit.
Raw T going up to 7.3

[Highteeld]

Incredible. Going to rival Meranti

[1900hurricane]

CDO diameter is ridiculous. It's not every day an eye is embedded in white a full 1.5º.

[Highteeld]

CDO diameter is ridiculous. It's not every day an eye is embedded in white a full 1.5º.

It just gets better and better.

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09102131
SATCON: MSLP = 940 hPa MSW = 128 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 122.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 126 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 200 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 5.2 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 949 hPa 107 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP102240
CIMSS AMSU: 947 hPa 108 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09100910
ATMS: 939.4 hPa 120.0 knots Date: 09101615
SSMIS: 931.0 hPa 136.0 knots Date: 09102131
CIRA ATMS: 968 hPa 89 knots Date: 09091545