ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

CLASSIC CAROLINA'S Cat 4 MAJOR

The few that there have been in "recorded" history. This is how they have all come in.

 https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1039260240573804545

[Ken711]

CLASSIC CAROLINA'S MAJOR

The few that there have been in "recorded" history. This is how they have all come in.

https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1039260240573804545

Except this could be the first category 5 in recorded history by the time it landfalls.

[SunnyThoughts]

AF Hurricane Hunter aircraft getting close. Guess we will see fairly soon if she is holding her own or continuing to strengthen.

[supercane4867]

Satellite presentation seems to have leveled off at the moment.

[Blinhart]

OK, I am now off of where it will be making landfall, because no matter what this is going to be a very serious situation. This storm is what 200 miles in diameter and growing. This will have storm surge effects all the way up to Long Island, up Chesapeake Bay. So you are talking about probably 25% of the US population will be under some types of impact of Flo. So don't just look at the initial landfall spot, this will be having a large impact over a whole lot of the country.

[weathaguyry]

OK, I am now off of where it will be making landfall, because no matter what this is going to be a very serious situation. This storm is what 200 miles in diameter and growing. This will have storm surge effects all the way up to Long Island, up Chesapeake Bay. So you are talking about probably 25% of the US population will be under some types of impact of Flo. So don't just look at the initial landfall spot, this will be having a large impact over a whole lot of the country.

Thank you for making this point! On Long Island the water was about 3 feet deep on my street last night and this morning just because of some east wind and the new moon, so any sort of storm sitting near the coast will be disastrous for many! My prayers are out for all of those in the direct path of Flo!

[EnnisTx]

OK, I am now off of where it will be making landfall, because no matter what this is going to be a very serious situation. This storm is what 200 miles in diameter and growing. This will have storm surge effects all the way up to Long Island, up Chesapeake Bay. So you are talking about probably 25% of the US population will be under some types of impact of Flo. So don't just look at the initial landfall spot, this will be having a large impact over a whole lot of the country.

Storm is about 500 miles wide with Hurricane force winds out almost 200 from the center.

[wxman57]

CLASSIC CAROLINA'S MAJOR

The few that there have been in "recorded" history. This is how they have all come in.

https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1039260240573804545

Except this could be the first category 5 in recorded history by the time it landfalls.

It's very hard for a Cat 5 to survive at that intensity after recurving.

[AtlanticWind]

OK, I am now off of where it will be making landfall, because no matter what this is going to be a very serious situation. This storm is what 200 miles in diameter and growing. This will have storm surge effects all the way up to Long Island, up Chesapeake Bay. So you are talking about probably 25% of the US population will be under some types of impact of Flo. So don't just look at the initial landfall spot, this will be having a large impact over a whole lot of the country.

Storm is about 500 miles wide with Hurricane force winds out almost 200 from the center.

False statement

[Ken711]

CLASSIC CAROLINA'S MAJOR

The few that there have been in "recorded" history. This is how they have all come in.

https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1039260240573804545

Except this could be the first category 5 in recorded history by the time it landfalls.

It's very hard for a Cat 5 to survive at that intensity after recurving.

Thanks wxman. By the time it landfalls how wide do you think Florence will be, and how far out will the hurricane force winds extend? I asked earlier how this compared to Andrew and saw a graphic how much smaller it was. How would it compare to Maria and Irma?

[ConvergenceZone]

CLASSIC CAROLINA'S MAJOR

The few that there have been in "recorded" history. This is how they have all come in.

https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/1039260240573804545

Except this could be the first category 5 in recorded history by the time it landfalls.

It's very hard for a Cat 5 to survive at that intensity after recurving.

I agree. A Cat 4 is much more likely

[wxman57]

OK, I am now off of where it will be making landfall, because no matter what this is going to be a very serious situation. This storm is what 200 miles in diameter and growing. This will have storm surge effects all the way up to Long Island, up Chesapeake Bay. So you are talking about probably 25% of the US population will be under some types of impact of Flo. So don't just look at the initial landfall spot, this will be having a large impact over a whole lot of the country.

Storm is about 500 miles wide with Hurricane force winds out almost 200 from the center.

What storm are you talking about? Florence is a little below-average in size. Squalls with 25+ mph wind span about 250 miles north-south (not counting cirrus outflow). Hurricane-force winds are 50-60 miles across and predicted to peak about 50-60 miles from the center, which is not far from average.

[toad strangler]

Except this could be the first category 5 in recorded history by the time it landfalls.

It's very hard for a Cat 5 to survive at that intensity after recurving.

I agree. A Cat 4 is much more likely

Agree and was my context. Cat 4 history

[EnnisTx]

OK, I am now off of where it will be making landfall, because no matter what this is going to be a very serious situation. This storm is what 200 miles in diameter and growing. This will have storm surge effects all the way up to Long Island, up Chesapeake Bay. So you are talking about probably 25% of the US population will be under some types of impact of Flo. So don't just look at the initial landfall spot, this will be having a large impact over a whole lot of the country.

Storm is about 500 miles wide with Hurricane force winds out almost 200 from the center.

False statement

Well.... Instead of making that type of statement, why don't you enlighten us?

[Blinhart]

OK, I am now off of where it will be making landfall, because no matter what this is going to be a very serious situation. This storm is what 200 miles in diameter and growing. This will have storm surge effects all the way up to Long Island, up Chesapeake Bay. So you are talking about probably 25% of the US population will be under some types of impact of Flo. So don't just look at the initial landfall spot, this will be having a large impact over a whole lot of the country.

Storm is about 500 miles wide with Hurricane force winds out almost 200 from the center.

What storm are you talking about? Florence is a little below-average in size. Squalls with 25+ mph wind span about 250 miles north-south (not counting cirrus outflow). Hurricane-force winds are 50-60 miles across and predicted to peak about 50-60 miles from the center, which is not far from average.

Thank you wxman57, I was wondering where EnnisTX got that number. That is why I said 200 miles in diameter, but it is growing, I'm expecting it to have a diameter of around 350-400 miles by the time it makes final approach.

[dspguy]

OK, I am now off of where it will be making landfall, because no matter what this is going to be a very serious situation. This storm is what 200 miles in diameter and growing. This will have storm surge effects all the way up to Long Island, up Chesapeake Bay. So you are talking about probably 25% of the US population will be under some types of impact of Flo. So don't just look at the initial landfall spot, this will be having a large impact over a whole lot of the country.

Storm is about 500 miles wide with Hurricane force winds out almost 200 from the center.

I'm no expert, but I brought up one of the pre-landfall images of the hurricane that shows wind speeds. I measured the size of the hurricane force winds north/south and east/west. It was a total of 118 miles across. So, more like 60 miles from the center. Not 200. I believe when the storm makes landfall the wind field expands, and the tropical storm force winds might be 250ish from the center. But not the hurricane force winds. Maybe an expert can chime in.

[GCANE]

AF302
HDOB
939.0 mb
25.583N 61.600W
23:04:00Z

[NDG]

Recon finds that Florence is holding steady on strength, has not found any stronger winds, for now.

[eastcoastFL]

OK, I am now off of where it will be making landfall, because no matter what this is going to be a very serious situation. This storm is what 200 miles in diameter and growing. This will have storm surge effects all the way up to Long Island, up Chesapeake Bay. So you are talking about probably 25% of the US population will be under some types of impact of Flo. So don't just look at the initial landfall spot, this will be having a large impact over a whole lot of the country.

Storm is about 500 miles wide with Hurricane force winds out almost 200 from the center.

Are you counting cloud cover? I doubt effects from the storm can be felt 500 miles from the center.

[Frank2]

Outflow from 95L might have slowed Florence's intensification or a return of southerly shear the past few hours is affecting the system ATTM:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/G ... &length=24