ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
uugghh only 2 passes...
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
GCANE wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..
Recon didn't mention anything in their last vortex message
Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1794
- Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2010 6:20 am
- Location: Toms River, NJ
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..
Dry air won't get pulled in when the shear is low over the storm especially for larger storms. Microwave imagery shows a pretty clear EWRC with a partial inner wall.
I think the timing of these cycles will be everything regarding Flo's LF intensity. It's hard to justify a Cat 4 landfall above 30N. I think a low to mid 3 is more likely, however the surge could easily be a category higher.
Last edited by hurricaneCW on Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
- TxDisasterHorn
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 8
- Age: 39
- Joined: Thu Sep 01, 2011 12:27 pm
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
How concerned should western shore of Maryland be?
0 likes


- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7359
- Age: 45
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Will finish the ewrc before morning, looks as though this is going to be a cat 5 sometime tomorrow IMO
1 likes
- EquusStorm
- Category 5
- Posts: 1649
- Age: 34
- Joined: Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:04 pm
- Location: Jasper, AL
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
I dunno how scientific it is but these days I always expect to see an ERC after an initial bout of RI like that; it just kinda feels like it makes the core structurally unstable winding up so fast and the storm tries to regulate itself a bit. Not always immediately the case though, proved by Irma, Patricia, etc
0 likes
Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:GCANE wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..
Recon didn't mention anything in their last vortex message
Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM
Could easily just be inner core disruption from dry air induction. I dont believe there was any evidence of dual wind max from recon, and the entire storm is showing disheveled signs of dry air.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Looks like Florence is shedding some of her banding
0 likes
- Hurricane Andrew
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1891
- Age: 26
- Joined: Sun May 23, 2010 2:53 pm
- Location: KS
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
BYG Jacob wrote:Looks like Florence is shedding some of her banding
Peripheral dry air?
0 likes
The Enthusiast
NREMT-AEMT, WX nerd
Irene '11, Sandy '12, Irma '17 (SAR)
"Hard to think we were born to live this way..." -Wage War
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
MacTavish wrote:supercane4867 wrote:GCANE wrote:
Recon didn't mention anything in their last vortex message
Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM
Could easily just be inner core disruption from dry air induction. I dont believe there was any evidence of dual wind max from recon, and the entire storm is showing disheveled signs of dry air.
yeah, I saw no double wind maxima. and the microwave passes are not enough. A small amount of dry air could also cause the same convective pattern.
either way it looks temporary.
satellite imagery also showing signs of dry air and not a ERC>
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- FLpanhandle91
- Category 5
- Posts: 1033
- Age: 34
- Joined: Mon Sep 13, 2010 3:50 pm
- Location: Fort Walton Beach, FL
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Wonder how the timing of this EWRC will lineup with landfall in regards to the next one.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 4966
- Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
MacTavish wrote:supercane4867 wrote:GCANE wrote:
Recon didn't mention anything in their last vortex message
Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM
Could easily just be inner core disruption from dry air induction. I dont believe there was any evidence of dual wind max from recon, and the entire storm is showing disheveled signs of dry air.
When a TC undergoes EWRC, it tends to look somewhat shriveled due to decrease in convection and banding, but that does not indicate a dry air intrusion since no shear is present.
The structure evolution of Flo has been well-predicated by HWRF, which expects her to attain the annular look by tommorrow once the EWRC is finished.

1 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Florence looks to be shrinking in size somewhat. Is this due to the EWRC?


0 likes
- cheezyWXguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 6108
- Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
- Location: Dallas, TX
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:not sure that is a ERC>. looks like dry air got pulled..
It looks like one to me, based on that microwave image posted above. Dry air could have instigated the erc to begin in the first place though.
0 likes
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Florence also has yet to pass over the warmest SST's of its lifetime.



0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 279
- Joined: Sun May 27, 2018 8:41 pm
- Location: Clearwater, FL
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
Does F pertain to the eye in the recon data?
New Vortex message as well:
URNT12 KNHC 110058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 11/00:40:10Z
B. 25.59 deg N 061.89 deg W
C. 700 mb 2613 m
D. 945 mb
E. 180 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SW
New Vortex message as well:
URNT12 KNHC 110058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 11/00:40:10Z
B. 25.59 deg N 061.89 deg W
C. 700 mb 2613 m
D. 945 mb
E. 180 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SW
1 likes
St Petersburg Florida
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
supercane4867 wrote:MacTavish wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Microwave pass shows a clear EWRC signal. Let's see what the NHC will say in their discussion at 11PM
Could easily just be inner core disruption from dry air induction. I dont believe there was any evidence of dual wind max from recon, and the entire storm is showing disheveled signs of dry air.
When a TC undergoes EWRC, it tends to look somewhat shriveled due to decrease in convection and banding, but that does not indicate a dry air intrusion since no shear is present.
The structure evolution of Flo has been well-predicated by HWRF, which expects her to attain the annular look by tommorrow once the EWRC is finished.
[img]https://i.imgur.com/QiyerWy.png[/im]
You dont always need shear for pockets of dry air to get pulled in.
also no double wind maximum or any sign of it.. all you have is a microwave image.
so it is highly unlikely an ERC. especially this early. the eye diameter also was not shrinking per last recon.
points to a small pocket of Dry air..
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 10, 2018 8:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3538
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
StormPyrate wrote:Does F pertain to the eye in the recon data?
New Vortex message as well:
URNT12 KNHC 110058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 11/00:40:10Z
B. 25.59 deg N 061.89 deg W
C. 700 mb 2613 m
D. 945 mb
E. 180 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SW
Yes.
1 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 455
- Joined: Tue Sep 04, 2018 3:23 pm
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:Florence looks to be shrinking in size somewhat. Is this due to the EWRC?
I will say, I've been following these storms for quite some time and I'm not accustomed to seeing an EWRC warm cloud tops that rapidly too often. Incredibly how fast she's been cut down.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 5075
- Age: 42
- Joined: Thu Jun 21, 2007 11:06 pm
- Location: Tampa, Florida, USA
- Contact:
Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion
StormPyrate wrote:Does F pertain to the eye in the recon data?
New Vortex message as well:
URNT12 KNHC 110058
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL062018
A. 11/00:40:10Z
B. 25.59 deg N 061.89 deg W
C. 700 mb 2613 m
D. 945 mb
E. 180 deg 11 kt
F. OPEN SW
"F (FOXTROT)
Describe the attributes of the center if at least 50 percent has an eyewall, otherwise enter NA.
Closed wall--if the center has 100 percent coverage with no eyewall weakness.
Open XX--if the center has 50 percent or more but less than 100 percent coverage. State the direction of the eyewall weakness.
Spiral band—report item GOLF with the best approximation of the shape/diameter of the inner core."
From PDF page 146 in the National Hurricane Operations Plan:
https://www.ofcm.gov/publications/nhop/nhop2.htm
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests