ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

USAF climbed above 20,000 ft and seemed headed for home so I gave up on the flight like others after 2 fixes... but they quickly descended back to 10,000 ft / 700mb level and then took a right turn. Might be positioning to Bermuda? Still, I'm surprised they're low-level.

[artist]

Feel this needs to be seen here, too-

[meriland29]

I know we are talking about the ERC right now, but i am curious about the forecasted sheer once near the states? I know the NHC forecasts it, however i notice many models don't and even keep its momentum until landfall

[Kazmit]

Taken a few hours ago.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Rainfall totals from the NHC. Totals could be way more than that depending on how it stalls.

[tolakram]

NHC forecast changes, last 3 advisories.

[hipshot]

Certainly possible. The same microwave pass does show some drier air lurking around the perimeter of the system. Systems do seem to be particularly susceptible to dry air intrusions during eyewall replacement.

Is that blue shed????

In my profile picture? Yup.

I remember that blue shed, but I can't remember what hurricane it was involved in but those videos sure were something to see.

[sponger]

Is that blue shed????

In my profile picture? Yup.

I remember that blue shed, but I can't remember what hurricane it was involved in but those videos sure were something to see.

Harvey!

http://www.mondo2000.com/2017/08/29/hur ... d-of-hope/

[jdjaguar]

Mandatory evacuation for Emerald Isle starts at 12 noon on Tuesday all visitors and residents should be off the island by 8 pm on Wednesday. The bridge over to the island will be closed to incoming traffic on 7 am on Thursday. Please keep us in your prayers.

Hopefully models will continue to shift east.

Prayers sent.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Let's all hope for dry air getting entrenched into the inner core. Such a scenario seems like our best chance for prolonged weakening.

[Ken711]

NHC forecast changes, last 3 advisories.

https://i.imgur.com/b9hPytb.gif

OBX are coming into the crosshairs as probable landfall.

[Ken711]

Mandatory evacuation for Emerald Isle starts at 12 noon on Tuesday all visitors and residents should be off the island by 8 pm on Wednesday. The bridge over to the island will be closed to incoming traffic on 7 am on Thursday. Please keep us in your prayers.

Hopefully models will continue to shift east.

Prayers sent.

OBX although not as populated as Wilmington or Morehead City, however also brings more damaging affects to the VA Beach, Norfolk and Hampton Roads area. There are no winners without an OTS solution unfortunately.

[EquusStorm]

Should trends continue, that pretty much removes most of SC from a lot of the more high-end impact, but is nearing worst case scenario for surge on the outer banks

[Ken711]

NHC forecast changes, last 3 advisories.

https://i.imgur.com/b9hPytb.gif

OBX are coming into the crosshairs as probable landfall.

Certainly appears there are no more west and south shifts coming.

[GeneratorPower]

Should trends continue, that pretty much removes most of SC from a lot of the more high-end impact, but is nearing worst case scenario for surge on the outer banks

Any further east/north shifts and the Outer Banks become the Inner Banks. Could just as easily see south/west shifts however. Still lots of time left for shifting.

[Evenstar]

NHC forecast changes, last 3 advisories.

https://i.imgur.com/b9hPytb.gif

OBX are coming into the crosshairs as probable landfall.

Ugh. This looks horrendous.

Maybe I should have bugged out of Hampton Roads instead of deciding to hunker down. I just didn't think landfall would be so far north.

Suddenly wondering if I bought enough food and water.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Should trends continue, that pretty much removes most of SC from a lot of the more high-end impact, but is nearing worst case scenario for surge on the outer banks

Any further east/north shifts and the Outer Banks become the Inner Banks. Could just as easily see south/west shifts however. Still lots of time left for shifting.

S and west shifts are done for the most part. IMHO. I have seen this show before a ton of times. I am glad but feel bad that my stress is relieved only by the OBX getting hit hard.

[PTPatrick]

NHC forecast changes, last 3 advisories.

https://i.imgur.com/b9hPytb.gif

OBX are coming into the crosshairs as probable landfall.

Certainly appears there are no more west and south shifts coming.

Until another west and south shift occurs. These things often windshield wiper. Don’t get caught up. Maybe it is the end and track will stay east of Wilmington. Maybe it’s not. There are still 3 looonng days until this is like, sort of maybe approaching a landfall.

[wkwally]

I know everyone is focused on the point of landfall of the eye but this worriese as after going through Harvey here in Houston we did not get much wind but got stomped on from the flooding. This one brings back bad memories.

[Ken711]

Should trends continue, that pretty much removes most of SC from a lot of the more high-end impact, but is nearing worst case scenario for surge on the outer banks

Any further east/north shifts and the Outer Banks become the Inner Banks. Could just as easily see south/west shifts however. Still lots of time left for shifting.

I guess yesterday's Euro's 0z run that was near Myrtle Beach was just a bad run, but I think the north/east trend isn't changing in the next few days.