ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[GTStorm]

wow. look at the 0z BAMs, they seems to suggest..."we really have no clue"...at least after about day 3.

still...it would be nice if the east trend of everything continues, maybe the Christmas Miracle happens and we get an OTS!

[hurricaneCW]

wow. look at the 0z BAMs, they seems to suggest..."we really have no clue"...at least after about day 3.

still...it would be nice if the east trend of everything continues, maybe the Christmas Miracle happens and we get an OTS!

You'll drive yourself less crazy if you follow the official track, the NHC has performed outstandingly over the past few years.

If you live in the affected area, then definitely follow their guidance over anything else.

[Aric Dunn]

The early track models( bam's) shifted west quite a bit..

[GTStorm]

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

wow. look at the 0z BAMs, they seems to suggest..."we really have no clue"...at least after about day 3.

still...it would be nice if the east trend of everything continues, maybe the Christmas Miracle happens and we get an OTS!

You'll drive yourself less crazy if you follow the official track, the NHC has performed outstandingly over the past few years.

If you live in the affected area, then definitely follow their guidance over anything else.

Yep, agree 100%. Wouldn't even remotely suggest not following NHC guidance. Just thought it interesting to mention the new plots, maybe a glimmer of hope...

[Ken711]

The early track models( bam's) shifted west quite a bit..

You mean east toward the OBX?

[GTStorm]

The early track models( bam's) shifted west quite a bit..

https://image.ibb.co/mdMt29/222233232.gif

hmmm...didn't catch that. Thanks. Looks a little more "squirrely" at the end, guess that caught my attention. I will look more closely next time!

[Aric Dunn]

COuld be an indicator the GFS might actually come west and play nice with the other models for the 00z..

[tallywx]

The early track models( bam's) shifted west quite a bit..
ttps://image.ibb.co/mdMt29/222233232.gif

hmmm...didn't catch that. Thanks. Looks a little more "squirrely" at the end, guess that caught my attention. I will look more closely next time!

Also this doesn’t appear like the typical “one and done” to hit or miss via OBX. Most models do a stall and hard left turn, even the ones that initially go wide right. Usually there would be a trough pulling it OTS but not the case this time.

[TheStormExpert]

00z spaghetti models plots shifted E...

I'm not seeing an east shift. If anything they're clustering together more, a North Carolina landfall at this point is likely a guarantee unfortunately.

00z Track Guidance


18z Track Guidance

[galaxy401]

Many of the model tracks are literally scribbles right at the coast... Wonder if the Euro will join that or will those models retract from that.

[Vdogg]

The early track models( bam's) shifted west quite a bit..

https://image.ibb.co/mdMt29/222233232.gif

hmmm...didn't catch that. Thanks. Looks a little more "squirrely" at the end, guess that caught my attention. I will look more closely next time!

Also this doesn’t appear like the typical “one and done” to hit or miss via OBX. Most models do a stall and hard left turn, even the ones that initially go wide right. Usually there would be a trough pulling it OTS but not the case this time.

The TVCN is straight down the middle of the coast, at the southern tip of OBX.

[Ken711]

hmmm...didn't catch that. Thanks. Looks a little more "squirrely" at the end, guess that caught my attention. I will look more closely next time!

Also this doesn’t appear like the typical “one and done” to hit or miss via OBX. Most models do a stall and hard left turn, even the ones that initially go wide right. Usually there would be a trough pulling it OTS but not the case this time.

The TVCN is straight down the middle of the coast, at the southern tip of OBX.

Cape Lookout, just to the right of Morehead City.

[tarheelprogrammer]

GFS has trended with stronger ridging each of the last 5 runs. Just something to look at I guess. Shouldn't mean much in terms of the track down range, right?

[BobHarlem]

The 0z GFS is a bit faster, and slightly further west than the 18z so far @ 36 hours.

[Steve]

The 0z GFS is a bit faster, and slightly further west than the 18z so far @ 36 hours.

Definitely farther west at 60 and 7mb stronger.

[Aric Dunn]

steering just drops to near nothing at 60 hours.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The 0z GFS is a bit faster, and slightly further west than the 18z so far @ 36 hours.

Definitely farther west at 60 and 7mb stronger.

Just lining up with the FV3-GFS from 18z. So, good consensus for Jacksonville to Morehead.

[tallywx]

steering just drops to near nothing at 60 hours.

It’s pulling that unrealistic explosive development at 60hrs and starting to get in its own way / wonky. Trajectory was right at Emerald Isle/Morehead City though.

[shah83]

I'm more looking at that H66 930mb on approach. The lowest of the super low high lattitude millibars...

[PandaCitrus]

918mb just off the coast at 75 hours. Looks like going east of moorehead to the outer banks for a possible landfall.