ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[N2FSU]

Check out new GFS in the models thread. Pretty dramatic SW shift. Eventual landfall looks like Myrtle Beach.

[eastcoastFL]

Been watching the last 48 fames for over an hour and there is definitely a more westerly direction.

It’s still gaining latitude. Just about to cross 26 N.

I was thinking the same thing, but hasn't done so for the last 96 frames and moving almost due west in fact.4 clicks west to no clicks to the north is not wnw it is due west

The loop you posted started south of 26N and finished north of it, didn't it? My eyes could be messing with me after staring at this stuff for days now

[pcolaman]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=acht

Still appears to be wnw for the most part.

Look at the wind field expanding also. Looks to be expanding to nearly twice the size.

[eastcoastFL]

[eastcoastFL]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=acht

Still appears to be wnw for the most part.

Look at the wind field expanding also. Looks to be expanding to nearly twice the size.

It does appear to blow up at the end of the recent loops

[PavelGaborik10]

Looks to be compensating for the clouds warming earlier. Definitely growing significantly larger now...Jeez.

[Vdogg]

Check out new GFS in the models thread. Pretty dramatic SW shift. Eventual landfall looks like Myrtle Beach.

It hits the Outer Banks first. That is not a Southwest shift, that’s where it was the last run. It meanders after steering collapses. Don’t put too much into the Myrtle Beach solution at the end.

[pcolaman]

Still appears to be wnw for the most part.

Look at the wind field expanding also. Looks to be expanding to nearly twice the size.

It does appear to blow up at the end of the recent loops

If you look at the time stamp on your post , it is almost 45 to 1 hour old

[tailgater]

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-13-96-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=acht

Still appears to be wnw for the most part.

Look at the wind field expanding also. Looks to be expanding to nearly twice the size.

I was noticing the same thing but just thinking it’s the CDO expanding, sure about the wind field.

[pcolaman]

I am just saying that it has much more of a westerly component to the storm at this point .

[eastcoastFL]

[

This is the most recent image I could find and it really blows up compared to the previous frames.

[eastcoastFL]

I am just saying that it has much more of a westerly component to the storm at this point .

It probably does over recent frames but Im sure it will average out. If you look at the next forecast point its located more west than the previous point so I think its on pace.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though the EWRC is about to finish in the next 3 to 4 hours

[eastcoastFL]

I am just saying that it has much more of a westerly component to the storm at this point .

This is the next forecast point

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

[PavelGaborik10]

What an interesting storm.

[N2FSU]

Check out new GFS in the models thread. Pretty dramatic SW shift. Eventual landfall looks like Myrtle Beach.

It hits the Outer Banks first. That is not a Southwest shift, that’s where it was the last run. It meanders after steering collapses. Don’t put too much into the Myrtle Beach solution at the end.

I should have worded it like I did in the models thread. It brushes/makes landfall on the Outer Banks first, then drops south and makes a second landfall in Myrtle Beach. That to me is still a dramatic SW shift for a second landfall. I’m not saying I believe it, just reporting what the model run shows.

2nd landfall:

[Hurricaneman]

Here’s an interesting scenario, as Florence approaches the Carolinas what would happen if it stalls like 100miles SE of landfall does a loop there and ends up making landfall well south of what is forecast, that would not be good, and some 18zGFS ensembles do just that so we need to watch for that

[eastcoastFL]

Is the shear increasing to her NW just too weak to have an effect?

[txwatcher91]

Now is not the time to “wobble watch” since the inner eye is now wobbling around the dominant one that is in the process of taking over. Once the new dominant eye takes over and establishes then it will be easier to determine the motion but a lot of people will be fooled if they are tracking the small eye for overall motion.

[bg1]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-CAR-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Cool GIF! Looks like it's becoming annular.