ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The 12z Canadian develops it into a Depression with most of the moisture displaced to the northeast of the center, across the middle and upper Texas coast. It shows heavy rain in southeast Texas and central Texas fwiw
Last edited by wxman22 on Mon Sep 10, 2018 12:47 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
SHIPS forecasts it to be around 50 knots as it makes landfall near Matagorda Bay, it will have fairly good UL Conditions over the NW GOM.
Code: Select all
* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL952018 09/10/18 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 27 29 35 38 44 48 53 56
V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 23 28 29 35 39 44 48 46 34
V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 22 25 25 27 29 32 36 40 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 23 14 17 23 21 17 18 7 13 3 10 6 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 6 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -5 -2 -6 -6 -6
SHEAR DIR 262 274 257 278 304 299 335 317 351 305 346 267 330
SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.5 30.1 30.1 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 158 154 152 150 159 170 171 171 166 156 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 145 139 137 133 141 152 153 156 146 135 130
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.8 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3
TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 10 9 11 9
700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 66 65 65 66 67 67 68 68 64 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 3 3
850 MB ENV VOR -31 -25 -24 -38 -43 -23 -28 -18 -25 -22 -48 -44 -39
200 MB DIV 54 72 64 38 12 35 34 6 3 8 -5 4 -12
700-850 TADV 4 10 8 2 3 4 -2 1 -2 4 0 3 1
LAND (KM) 165 114 70 20 -21 103 217 346 425 365 170 -4 -185
LAT (DEG N) 18.5 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.2 22.5 23.5 24.4 25.3 26.3 27.4 28.6 29.6
LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.4 86.7 86.9 87.1 87.7 88.5 89.7 91.3 93.0 94.7 96.2 97.7
STM SPEED (KT) 4 8 8 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 10 9 8
HEAT CONTENT 56 60 53 40 31 29 48 58 60 68 78 70 9
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
wxman22 wrote:The 12z Canadian develops it into a Depression with most of the moisture displaced to the northeast of the center, across the middle and upper Texas coast. It shows heavy rain in southeast Texas and central Texas fwiw
CMC smh I don't even watch it anymore..everytime I think its getting better it goes back to normal.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Euro looks to be coming a little further south and more organized of the last run. Not done with the run yet though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
SoupBone wrote:Euro looks to be coming a little further south and more organized of the last run. Not done with the run yet though.
12z Euro looks to bring whatever it is ashore around Baffin Bay late Friday evening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Most of the ensemble members from the Euro have shifted into STX and NMX so it could be less rain for Texas overall compared to the 0z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Cpv17 wrote:Most of the ensemble members from the Euro have shifted into STX and NMX so it could be less rain for Texas overall compared to the 0z.
This is a very lopsided system. All the rain will be on the right side.
Biggest threat from this system is heavy rain that will spread somewhere on the TX coast
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
will keep going back and forth till we have a center....prob will be sloppy....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
GFS still shows nothing with this, maybe tomorrow if it keeps organizing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
wkwally wrote:Any idea on how strong 95L might be before landfall?
Euro (which is running right now) is showing 1007mb and is coming in a bit further south of its previous run. I'm on my phone so it's hard to spot exactly where, but it's a bit further south of Corpus Christi.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
SoupBone wrote:wkwally wrote:Any idea on how strong 95L might be before landfall?
Euro (which is running right now) is showing 1007mb and is coming in a bit further south of its previous run. I'm on my phone so it's hard to spot exactly where, but it's a bit further south of Corpus Christi.
Thanks a little jumpy here in Houston as we are still trying to recover from Harvey.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
wkwally wrote:SoupBone wrote:wkwally wrote:Any idea on how strong 95L might be before landfall?
Euro (which is running right now) is showing 1007mb and is coming in a bit further south of its previous run. I'm on my phone so it's hard to spot exactly where, but it's a bit further south of Corpus Christi.
Thanks a little jumpy here in Houston as we are still trying to recover from Harvey.
Understandable. But remember this is a single run of one model. Still time for things to change.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
SoupBone wrote:wkwally wrote:SoupBone wrote:
Euro (which is running right now) is showing 1007mb and is coming in a bit further south of its previous run. I'm on my phone so it's hard to spot exactly where, but it's a bit further south of Corpus Christi.
Thanks a little jumpy here in Houston as we are still trying to recover from Harvey.
Understandable. But remember this is a single run of one model. Still time for things to change.
Will be watching the models closely
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The ensembles are mainly clustered together in between Baffin Bay and Port Aransas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I'm not sure why there aren't any hurricane models being run on this disturbance. Curious to see what the HWRF and HMON would show.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Will have better idea tomorrow, I’m interested to see what happens with it today
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