WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 03:45 UTC, 11 September 2018

<Analysis at 03 UTC, 11 September>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°55' (13.9°)
E140°35' (140.6°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 201 NM WEST OF
NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN INCREASINGLY WELL-
DEFINED EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 120 KNOTS BASED ON THE
RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
EXCELLENT OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION. TY 26W IS TRACKING
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. THROUGH TAU 72, THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO STEER TY 26W TOWARD
THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE, THEREBY
SUPPORTING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ABOVE CONSENSUS, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 135
KNOTS, BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THE CURRENT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION RATE CONTINUES. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK IS HIGH, BASED ON THE TIGHT SPREAD IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 26W WILL REMAIN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE STR, BUT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. AROUND
TAU 96, THE CYCLONE WILL ENTER THE LUZON STRAIT AND PASS BETWEEN
TAIWAN AND THE PHILIPPINES. SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING IS INDICATED IN
THE INTENSITY FORECAST, GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO LUZON AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LAND INTERACTION COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT
WITH LOW SPREAD, SO THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED JTWC
FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

SATCON up to 140 knots rounded off.

[euro6208]

Solid Cat 5. How i wish recon would return!

[xtyphooncyclonex]

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 11 September 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 11 September>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N13°55' (13.9°)
E139°50' (139.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E137°40' (137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 12 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N14°10' (14.2°)
E135°25' (135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E130°30' (130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 14 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E126°05' (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 520 km (280 NM)

[mrbagyo]

TY 1822 (Mangkhut)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 11 September 2018

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 11 September>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N13°55' (13.9°)
E139°50' (139.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30 km/h (15 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 11 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N13°50' (13.8°)
E137°40' (137.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 300 km (160 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 12 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N14°10' (14.2°)
E135°25' (135.4°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
Radius of probability circle 110 km (60 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 330 km (180 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N15°20' (15.3°)
E130°30' (130.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 905 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (110 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 80 m/s (155 kt)
Radius of probability circle 200 km (110 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 440 km (240 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 14 September>
Intensity Violent
Center position of probability circle N17°05' (17.1°)
E126°05' (126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 900 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 60 m/s (115 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85 m/s (165 kt)
Radius of probability circle 260 km (140 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 520 km (280 NM)

4 way tie for 2018's strongest ATM.

[euro6208]

JTWC at 7.0. 140 knots next warning?

TPPN11 PGTW 110644

A. TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT)

B. 11/0600Z

C. 13.93N

D. 139.69E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 03A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. BOTH THE MET AND PT YIELD A 6.5. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS
BROKEN BASED ON RI.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ZOUFALY

[euro6208]

SATCON at 144 knots.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Mangkhut is set to strengthen to 140 kts (waiting for BT), finally surpassing Florence as the strongest active tropical cyclone currently. Significant amounts of ACE are coming.

[Sciencerocks]

This is within my opinion nearly as strong as Irma was last year. This thing is nuts and makes the Atlantic hurricane look weak.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

26W MANGKHUT 180911 0600 14.0N 139.7E WPAC 135 920

[NotoSans]

The latest JTWC forecast brings a 100-knot typhoon near Hong Kong. Numerical models have trended slightly to the left over the past several runs though.

[euro6208]

As usual, JTWC being conservative again. This is a Cat 5. Unbelievable presentation with very deep convection completely surrounds the eye.

[1900hurricane]

Microwave presentation is looking pretty good now.

[Thon1357]

http://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2618.gif

[doomhaMwx]

Sunset...

[doomhaMwx]

We don't often see the Euro go this low/deep.

[Thon1357]

I have noticed that it is like going on a more southerly track
Does not bode well for the Philippines

[euro6208]

What? SATCON at 154 knots and AMSU at 170 knots?


CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09110658
SATCON: MSLP = 917 hPa MSW = 154 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 144.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 150 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 1.8 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 922 hPa 137 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP110840
CIMSS AMSU: 903 hPa 170 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09110658
ATMS: 921.8 hPa 144.1 knots Date: 09110414
SSMIS: 923.0 hPa 139.1 knots Date: 09110414
CIRA ATMS: 924 hPa 130 knots Date: 09110415

[1900hurricane]

Well welcome back AMSU. The first full AMSU hit in almost 24 hours is pretty bonkers...

CIMSS/NESDIS-USAF/NRL AMSU TC Intensity Estimation:
SUPER TYPHOON 26W
Tuesday 11sep18 Time: 0658 UTC
Latitude: 14.00 Longitude: 139.46
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 22 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 903 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 170 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -23.0 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 5.45795
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 5.77
RMW: 18 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1006
Satellite: NOAA-19
ATCF data for Month: 09 Day: 11 Time (UTC): 0600

For imagery, go to http://amsu.ssec.wisc.edu
For all comments and questions mailto:chrisv@ssec.wisc.edu