WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Regarding SATCON, Irma's actual wind speeds did not significantly deviate from the estimates; there is no bias. There is a difference between actual/statistical bias and perceived bias. To prove the validity of your argument, you must present evidence---and the SATCON estimates were posted above.

Here is Irma during its peak at 155 kts. Its convection may have been a little warmer than Mangkhut's; however, it isn't as unpresentable or "just overstated" as some depict it to be. Its satellite presentation is impressive. The estimate suits its appearance and measured recon winds. Notice the symmetry of its eye.



On the other hand, here is Mangkhut. While I concur with some here that this is underestimated, it is not too far off from Irma, and that Irma itself isn't weaker than Mangkhut. Convection is deepening, eye is warming, but there is room for improvement. Its eye could be more symmetrical. I anticipate Mangkhut to strengthen even more than forecast.

Nonetheless, this has likely strengthened to 150-155 kts. 140 kts is definitely on the more conservative side.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Past contrary? Look at dvorak vs recon...

Why don't you show us proof and actual data? What is the basis of your statement saying the NHC led SATCON by a whole mile? The NHC's and SATCON's estimates did not diverge from each other drastically.

[euro6208]

Looking back at the most intense systems in the Atlantic, NHC most of the time led SATCON by a whole mile especially at peak. That's recon to you. What more with Mangkhut? When was the last time dvorak matched real time recon for a Cat 4 or especially 5 in the Atlantic?

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09110842
SATCON: MSLP = 920 hPa MSW = 152 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 148.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 132 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 0.0 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 922 hPa 137 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP111040
CIMSS AMSU: 903 hPa 170 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09110658
ATMS: 921.8 hPa 144.1 knots Date: 09110414
SSMIS: 919.0 hPa 156.0 knots Date: 09110842
CIRA ATMS: 924 hPa 130 knots Date: 09110415

I just took a look at the SATCON estimates for the three most intense ATL systems last year, and I couldn't see any basis for the statement "NHC most of the time led SATCON by a whole mile". (Note that the peak intensity for Irma is revised to 155 knots in the best track and matches well with SATCON estimates.)

Satellite intensity estimates definitely have errors, and it is definitely desirable to have recon in order to have the ground truth, but it is very important to emphasise that satellite intensity estimates, contrary to your belief, can both under- and over-estimate intensity, and even with recon, there is still controversy over the validity of SFMR winds, flight-level to surface ratio, etc.

Back to Mangkhut, JTWC went with 140KT for 12Z, while JMA maintained the intensity at 105KT.

I actually said................................NHC most of the time led SATCON by a whole mile especially at peak.....

[euro6208]

Past contrary? Look at dvorak vs recon...

Why don't you show us proof and actual data? What is the basis for your statement saying the NHC led SATCON by a whole mile?

Look at past systems...(((NHC most of the time led SATCON by a whole mile especially at peak)))...

[mrbagyo]

Can we stop whining, this is becoming unproductive

[Highteeld]

Looks like the Chinese have Mangkhut pegged at 910 mb right now

[euro6208]

Apparently some misinterpreting my statement wrong.

[Highteeld]

140/917 12 UTC BT

[euro6208]

Can we stop whining, this is becoming unproductive

Well recon can solve this. I have been here for years knowing what is this and that. I don't give much info and expertise here and act as a regular customer but i know better than that. I like to keep far

[Highteeld]

[1900hurricane]

It reminds me a bit of Chaba '04 structurally.

[euro6208]

Well sorry to all that i offended as i have been getting some messages. Peace...Hopefully my next reincarnation life we have recon over here.

[NotoSans]

The latest forecast from the HKO can be described as a pure disaster for the Pearl River Delta.

[1900hurricane]

The eye is now approaching 20*C and the CDO diameter remains massive. I believe the next microwave pass coming up is of the ATMS variety (NPP and NOAA-20 both pass over near the same time). It’ll be interesting to see the intensity estimate from them.

[Highteeld]

Gives the storm a sense of scale vs other super typhoons (obv data for STY Haiyan is screwed up in this list, though)

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09111211
SATCON: MSLP = 912 hPa MSW = 156 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 152.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 135 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 190 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -0.7 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 920 hPa 137 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP111340
CIMSS AMSU: 895 hPa 167 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09111211
ATMS: 921.8 hPa 144.1 knots Date: 09110414
SSMIS: 919.0 hPa 156.0 knots Date: 09110842
CIRA ATMS: 924 hPa 130 knots Date: 09110415

[1900hurricane]

With SSMIS and AMSU already 155 kt+, I would feel much more comfortable with estimating such an intensity if ATMS followed suit, regardless of IR intensity estimates.

[euro6208]

Intense...

[euro6208]

Only gets warmer along the track...