ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I would suggest everyone not to get caught up with the forecast showing some weakening. the setup is quite complex and it could just as easily maintain cat 4 intensity.

A 5 mile per hour wind difference wont make any difference.

[Ken711]

I would suggest everyone not to get caught up with the forecast showing some weakening. the setup is quite complex and it could just as easily maintain cat 4 intensity.

A 5 mile per hour wind difference wont make any difference.

I agree. There can't be much difference in damage from a high 3 versus a low 4.

[jdjaguar]

Fixed that for you, wind (unless an extreme case like Irma) is never the biggest problem with hurricanes. Its storm surge and rain.

storm surge estimates have also been lowered.

not minimizing anything, just reporting latest forecasts.

That's interesting. I was under the impression that weakening right before landfall does not usually diminish the storm surge potential (see Katrina).

I agree. It may be a function of the current forecast of Cat 4 to CAt 3 at landfall, vs prior potential CAT 5 to CAT 4.

That said, still a very dangerous storm and certain to cause extensive damage.

[meriland29]

Beautiful image capturing mesovortices as the eye clears:
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/jJY5s82.gif[/img]

Is that moving really slowly or is it a image and I am hallucinating lol?

[Michele B]

I would suggest everyone not to get caught up with the forecast showing some weakening. the setup is quite complex and it could just as easily maintain cat 4 intensity.

A 5 mile per hour wind difference wont make any difference.

Thank you for saying that, Aric!

There's another forum where they are ARGUING over whether Flo will come ashore as Cat 3, 4 or 5!!

Like it will make a lot of diff.

[seahawkjd]

Beautiful image capturing mesovortices as the eye clears:



Is that moving really slowly or is it a image and I am hallucinating lol?

Its moving normally you just have a ton of images per second. Because of this you are seeing way more fine detail and hence it looks slower since its not covering like 3 hours in seconds.

[southerngale]

How is her strength right now? Is she struggling?

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

3 days from landfall, the NHC had Harvey forecast to hit as a tropical storm, not ever reaching hurricane status, much less a cat 4. Just saying, things change. Better to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. I did a terrible job planning for Harvey and paid for it. Please, everyone in the potential path, heed the warnings. Don't end up having to be rescued like me, scared out of your mind. Get out. Tropical rains for days on end is nothing to play around with.

From the 4pm update 8/23/17:

INIT 23/2100Z 21.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

[craptacular]

I still have trouble with Zulu time after all these years so im not sure even looking at the above information when the next flight is, or even if there is another flight today. Not sure at all.

In Windows 10, there is an option for "Additional Clocks." I have one set to UTC to help me figure that out. In iOS, you can go to the Clock app, add a new city, and search for "UTC." I'm sure Android and other devices are similar. Hope this helps.

EDT is four hours behind Zulu / UTC. So, yes, the next center fix from recon is expected around 2330z = 1930 (or 7:30pm) EDT.

[jdjaguar]

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

3 days from landfall, the NHC had Harvey forecast to hit as a tropical storm, not ever reaching hurricane status, much less a cat 4. Just saying, things change. Better to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best. I did a terrible job planning for Harvey and paid for it. Please, everyone in the potential path, heed the warnings. Don't end up having to be rescued like me, scared out of your mind. Get out. Tropical rains for days on end is nothing to play around with.

From the 4pm update 8/23/17:

INIT 23/2100Z 21.6N 92.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 22.4N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 23.8N 93.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 25.1N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 26.4N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 28.6N 97.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 27/1800Z 29.0N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 28/1800Z 29.0N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

point taken. forecasts do change, and storms can be unpredictable.

Aric is correct with his comment(s).

[weunice]

The stalling out for flooding could be equally devastating as any wind.

Just ask Houston. And that's on top of surge.

Allison 01', Tax Day Floods 16', and Harvey 17' all say 'hey'.

The $10 billion Aug 2016 Flood in South Louisiana tosses its hat in with this as well. The rain totals from this look very capable of producing billions in flood damage alone.

[KC7NEC]

How is her strength right now? Is she struggling?

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

This is a prime example of how the NHC focusing on the Saffir-Simpson scale can have negative impact on the public safety. With the focus on categories by wind the public who will not read the details see the change from Cat 4 to Cat 3 and start to become complacent. They really need to better classify storms based on ALL impacts not just wind.

Not a Official or meteorologist. All opinions and statements are my own. Consult the experts.

[GCANE]

Gonzo en route

[craptacular]

And right on cue ... wow, they are busy! They even have to note "Resources Permitting" on the potential invest in the Gulf of Mexico.

078
NOUS42 KNHC 111757
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0200 PM EDT TUE 11 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-110

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE FLORENCE
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 13/0000Z A. 12/2330Z,13/0530Z
B. NOAA9 1206A FLORENCE B. AFXXX 1306A FLORENCE
C. 12/1730Z C. 12/2130Z
D. NA D. 31.1N 73.1W
E. NA E. 12/2300Z TO 13/0530Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 73
A. 13/1130Z,1430Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 1406A FLORENCE
C. 13/1000Z
D. 32.6N 75.2W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 42
A. 12/2330Z,13/0530Z A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA2 0209A ISAAC B. NOAA2 0309A ISAAC
C. 12/2130Z C. 13/1000Z
D. 14.7N 57.1W D. 15.1N 59.9W
E. 12/2300Z TO 13/0530Z E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 75
A. 12/1800Z A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01AAA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 12/1645Z C. 13/0945Z
D. 25.0N 91.0W D. 25.5N 92.5W
E. 12/1730Z TO 12/2230Z E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. RESOURCES PERMITTING G. RESOURCES PERMITTING

4. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 3-HRLY FIXES ON FLORENCE WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS
A THREAT.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON ISAAC.
C. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON GULF SUSPECT SYSTEM IF IT
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT, RESOURCES PERMITTING.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARK: MISSIONS TASKED IN TCPOD 18-109 FOR HURRICANE OLIVIA
REQUIREMENTS WILL FLY AS PLANNED.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[supercane4867]

No change in structure

[Blinhart]

Just ask Houston. And that's on top of surge.

Allison 01', Tax Day Floods 16', and Harvey 17' all say 'hey'.

The $10 billion Aug 2016 Flood in South Louisiana tosses its hat in with this as well. The rain totals from this look very capable of producing billions in flood damage alone.

Also Juan 1985

[artist]

No, she's not 'struggling'. She's getting ready to devastate my state.

NHC has her down to CAT 3 at landfall. (still devastating, but not "as" devastating)

This is a prime example of how the NHC focusing on the Saffir-Simpson scale can have negative impact on the public safety. With the focus on categories by wind the public who will not read the details see the change from Cat 4 to Cat 3 and start to become complacent. They really need to better classify storms based on ALL impacts not just wind.



Not a Official or meteorologist. All opinions and statements are my own. Consult the experts.

What needs to be remembered is mini vortices and tornadoes within cells, even outside the eyewall can cause significant damage.-

In the active 2004 and 2005 hurricane seasons, Forbes found that about 8.5 percent of the 558 total tornadoes spawned by tropical storms and hurricanes in those two seasons were rated F2 or F3 intensity. The remaining 91.5 percent were rated either F0 or F1.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... w-20130815

[FLeastcoast]

wind (unless an extreme case like Irma) is never the biggest problem with hurricanes. Its storm surge and rain.

Well now you're just being silly. Wind is plenty damaging, as thousands of roofless homes are about to show you.

I was in the line of Irma. Wind and rain destroyed my house. I evacuated. Part of my roof was damaged and rain poured in. (hey..I got a free skylight..it was just great being able to see the clouds in the sky while I was in the bathroom ugh) By the time I was able to get back to my house, mold had arrived to say "hello" Just got approved for the SBA loan a few months ago, and hoping to get out of this moldy death trap soon. NOTE : Even without being there to deal with the rain coming in, I am VERY GLAD we evacuated. For those in the path...leave while you can. The most important thing is for you and the people and pets you love to be safe...everything else can be replaced.

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks like the 12z models and NHC are foreseeing a markedly weaker storm coming up than previously forecasted. Still a powerful and scary storm, especially with that stall..but it is good that it is not anticipated to be as strong...

yeah that is due mostly to the very slow approach speed to the coast. number if possible issues arise. from upwelling to upper winds shifting etc. It also might not weaken that much. only time will tell.

Yea when I was watching a hurricane update on TV, they were saying it could be anywhere from a cat 1 to a cat 3 when it makes landfall, which tells me that they aren’t even sure on the strength

[craptacular]

Based on the newest plan, it looks like they delayed the start of the three-hour fixes for Florence by half a day, so it should be six hours starting tonight through tomorrow, and then three hours starting on Thursday morning.

[SunnyThoughts]

Gonzo en route

That's good to know. Thanks for the info Gcane