ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[crimi481]

Feels Andrew-ish
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/

[dukeblue219]

If you tuned out of the model thread after the Euro appeared to be making landfall near Wilmington you might want to check back again. It gets weird at day 4-5, backing the storm away without making landfall, then heading on down towards the Savannah-to-Charleston region before landfalling. As always, everyone in the region needs to be watching this storm closely.

[Blinhart]

It looks like the 12z models and NHC are foreseeing a markedly weaker storm coming up than previously forecasted. Still a powerful and scary storm, especially with that stall..but it is good that it is not anticipated to be as strong...

yeah that is due mostly to the very slow approach speed to the coast. number if possible issues arise. from upwelling to upper winds shifting etc. It also might not weaken that much. only time will tell.

Yea when I was watching a hurricane update on TV, they were saying it could be anywhere from a cat 1 to a cat 3 when it makes landfall, which tells me that they aren’t even sure on the strength

1-3 is wishful thinking if I say so myself, this is either gonna hit in the 3-5 range and if it makes it inland quickly transition to a 1, but might stay as a 1-2 for a while if it stays on the shore or just off shore for a couple days.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Variety of links to Florence imagery:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/M ... 7N&lon=66W

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floate ... oater.html

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=al062018

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined

https://realearth.ssec.wisc.edu/?center ... obalir-avn

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... 000&loop=0

http://hurricanecity.com/custom-satelli ... 4.6&zoom=2

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

https://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/s ... ct=11p20um

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/PSUGOES_MESO1/loop60.html
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SATATL_FLO ... m8vis.html

[TorSkk]

Best track up to 120kt

06L FLORENCE 180911 1800 27.2N 66.3W ATL 120 945

[ConvergenceZone]

yeah that is due mostly to the very slow approach speed to the coast. number if possible issues arise. from upwelling to upper winds shifting etc. It also might not weaken that much. only time will tell.

Yea when I was watching a hurricane update on TV, they were saying it could be anywhere from a cat 1 to a cat 3 when it makes landfall, which tells me that they aren’t even sure on the strength

1-3 is wishful thinking if I say so myself, this is either gonna hit in the 3-5 range and if it makes it inland quickly transition to a 1, but might stay as a 1-2 for a while if it stays on the shore or just off shore for a couple days.

I definitely don’t see this hitting as a cat 5. There is a reason why a cat 5 has never hit there before. It’s because the atmospheric and oceanic conditions don’t support it. Heck even Cat 4’s are rare in that area

[Aric Dunn]

Gonzo en route

That's good to know. Thanks for the info Gcane

it is upper air sampling. they are finally sampling the ridging off the carolina coast.

[Powellrm]

What a turn of events, that can't be right. Wow!

[GCANE]

About 40 min ago

[jlauderdal]

the error rate is a real thing and has to be taken into account even as a hurricane gets within 48 hours, look at what irma did at the end and now florence, btw this latest euro run could be on crack and the next run goes back to where it was...if you are in the cone prepare for a direct hit as always

[Blinhart]

About 40 min ago

[i mg]http://i67.tinypic.com/sfyy5h.jpg[/img]

So very good chance of RI if that is what I am reading correctly.

[meriland29]

Any recon data lately?

[Blinhart]

Yea when I was watching a hurricane update on TV, they were saying it could be anywhere from a cat 1 to a cat 3 when it makes landfall, which tells me that they aren’t even sure on the strength

1-3 is wishful thinking if I say so myself, this is either gonna hit in the 3-5 range and if it makes it inland quickly transition to a 1, but might stay as a 1-2 for a while if it stays on the shore or just off shore for a couple days.

I definitely don’t see this hitting as a cat 5. There is a reason why a cat 5 has never hit there before. It’s because the atmospheric and oceanic conditions don’t support it. Heck even Cat 4’s are rare in that area

I have seen plenty of news articles stating that there is a chance of this coming in as Cat 5, Cat 4 is more likely though.

[pgoss11]

Lots of people at the supermarket today in Charleston SC stocking up on supplies because most people thought that they would be out of the surge area so they didn't evacuate. Most people believed Charleston wouldn't be any where near landfall. Things can certainly change quickly.

[Mouton]

If you tuned out of the model thread after the Euro appeared to be making landfall near Wilmington you might want to check back again. It gets weird at day 4-5, backing the storm away without making landfall, then heading on down towards the Savannah-to-Charleston region before landfalling. As always, everyone in the region needs to be watching this storm closely.

Frankly to me that is consistent with the quick jog to the left on the sat. It looks like the storm is moving closer again to 280 than 295 degrees. Furthermore, go back and look at the path Dora took in 64. Something is causing the EURO to show what is an unusual path after 72 hours. I bet it is their theory the ridge will move south. The timing on the ridge may be off and if Florence is beginning to feel it to its North and North east side, a move to the west could happen IMO. The last XTRAP I have shows a direct path to Charleston so IMO, it could end up toward the left side of the current cone at landfall.

PLEASE be guided by my comment is that from a rank amateur. I post it for comment only. Make all your personal and property safety decisions based on the info furnished from the experts, especially the National Hurricane Center. They are pros and get paid.

[ConvergenceZone]

1-3 is wishful thinking if I say so myself, this is either gonna hit in the 3-5 range and if it makes it inland quickly transition to a 1, but might stay as a 1-2 for a while if it stays on the shore or just off shore for a couple days.

I definitely don’t see this hitting as a cat 5. There is a reason why a cat 5 has never hit there before. It’s because the atmospheric and oceanic conditions don’t support it. Heck even Cat 4’s are rare in that area

I have seen plenty of news articles stating that there is a chance of this coming in as Cat 5, Cat 4 is more likely though.

Things have changed, hence the NHC also calling for a lowered intensity forecast as well now

[floridasun78]

Lots of people at the supermarket today in Charleston SC stocking up on supplies because most people thought that they would be out of the surge area so they didn't evacuate. Most people believed Charleston wouldn't be any where near landfall. Things can certainly change quickly.

hope don't hit their or any were i want that Charleston it nice city was their lasts dec

[jlauderdal]

1-3 is wishful thinking if I say so myself, this is either gonna hit in the 3-5 range and if it makes it inland quickly transition to a 1, but might stay as a 1-2 for a while if it stays on the shore or just off shore for a couple days.

I definitely don’t see this hitting as a cat 5. There is a reason why a cat 5 has never hit there before. It’s because the atmospheric and oceanic conditions don’t support it. Heck even Cat 4’s are rare in that area

I have seen plenty of news articles stating that there is a chance of this coming in as Cat 5, Cat 4 is more likely though.

prepare for a 3-5, preps are the same, stock up, put up shutters and evacuate if in a zone...unfortunately the media makes it more complicated than it needs to be..if they just put text on the screen with simple instructions and showed nothing else they would be doing a greater service than showing empty bread shelves and people at home depot loading up plywood that should have already done it..KISS

[supercane4867]

Intensity maybe back up to at least 120kt now. Recon tonight should find a much stronger storm

[jlauderdal]

I definitely don’t see this hitting as a cat 5. There is a reason why a cat 5 has never hit there before. It’s because the atmospheric and oceanic conditions don’t support it. Heck even Cat 4’s are rare in that area

I have seen plenty of news articles stating that there is a chance of this coming in as Cat 5, Cat 4 is more likely though.

Things have changed, hence the NHC also calling for a lowered intensity forecast as well now

intensity forecasting is a mystery, prepare for a major hurricane and hope its less