ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3541 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:53 pm

Oh well every model is allowed one goofy run. It will probably shift back....right?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3542 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:54 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Stop the presses...I can't imagine anyone saw this coming. This potentially changes everything and just goes to show that when a system falls into a weak steering environment that it can lead to major ramifications and uncertainties in the track. I can't recall what time the Euro ensembles come out...Anyone have anything on those yet?


I said something earlier but my post was deleted as off topic for some wierd reason.

I said 100 miles further south and florida would get thumped. Trend not your friend (Unless you are in NC) :D

Nobody should be issuing any evacuation orders this far out. Just precautions. I'm sure when this is over a few million more will be moved around.
Last edited by SEASON_CANCELED on Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3543 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:55 pm

Stormcenter wrote:Oh well every model is allowed one goofy run. It will probably shift back....right?


I'd normally say yes but the FV3 GFS was somewhat similar.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3544 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:57 pm

by the way this current upper air recon mission is finally sampling the environment near the carolinas. 18z models might shift even more one way or the other. if they find the ridging strong well you know..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3545 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:58 pm

Raebie wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Guess it's a good thing that South Carolina has taken evacuations for this pretty seriously given trends


Yeah, but a lot of the SC folks have evacuated to northern GA.


That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" :cheesy: Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3546 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 11, 2018 1:59 pm

12z GFS ensembles shifted south - mostly NC now and none offshore.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091112_GEFS_large.png
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3547 Postby Blinhart » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:02 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Raebie wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Guess it's a good thing that South Carolina has taken evacuations for this pretty seriously given trends


Yeah, but a lot of the SC folks have evacuated to northern GA.


That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" :cheesy: Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.


All 3 of those could be getting flooding rains. They need to go further West past Atlanta.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3548 Postby Raebie » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:03 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Raebie wrote:
EquusStorm wrote:Guess it's a good thing that South Carolina has taken evacuations for this pretty seriously given trends


Yeah, but a lot of the SC folks have evacuated to northern GA.


That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" :cheesy: Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.


I'm in Charlotte...staying put and breaking put the rowboat.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3549 Postby Mouton » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:03 pm

chaser1 wrote:
FLeastcoast wrote:
artist wrote:Actually, it is run twice a day, so 12 hours, but your point is well taken.



I am in N FL. Could my area come back into play??


Check the path of Dora in 64. It was a cat 4 not all that far from the point where Florence is now. It made an abrupt left turn and landed just south of Jax Beach in Florida as a cat 2 at landfall. I am not saying that will happen again but I was noting that three days ago. One weatherperson in Jax, George Winterling, made his bones predicting exactly that path which was against all the pronouncements from the NHC.

Keep in mind I am no expert and any life and property decisions should be made by the experts and I would rely on them totally for advice. :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3550 Postby tomatkins » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:04 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Unbelievable, usually when we get to 3 days from landfall, there is at least some agreement with all the models. I guess some may say anywhere from NC to GA is "some" agreement, but sheesh. Hopefully this run had a glitch or some sort...but with all the new information being fed into the models with all the high altitude flights, dropsondes, etc...This may turn out to be correct.

I dont think its gonna be clear until it happens. The models have been showing for a couple of days now that the storm will move towards a Myrtle Beach to OBX land fall, stall and then drift. But obviously the timing and direction of the drift is both hugely consequential, and very hard to predict.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3551 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:06 pm

ronjon wrote:12z GFS ensembles shifted south - mostly NC now and none offshore.

https://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL06_2018091112_GEFS_large.png

The operational matches the southern most ensemble. The mean seems to line up around Wilmington, which is about where the Euro stalls it.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3552 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:07 pm

I mean given some of these trends, I might have to open up the spare bedroom here north of Birmingham, AL, to evacuees
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3553 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:13 pm

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:Stop the presses...I can't imagine anyone saw this coming. This potentially changes everything and just goes to show that when a system falls into a weak steering environment that it can lead to major ramifications and uncertainties in the track. I can't recall what time the Euro ensembles come out...Anyone have anything on those yet?


I said something earlier but my post was deleted as off topic for some wierd reason.

I said 100 miles further south and florida would get thumped. Trend not your friend (Unless you are in NC) :D

Nobody should be issuing any evacuation orders this far out. Just precautions. I'm sure when this is over a few million more will be moved around.


You're right, your prior post should never have been deleted... not if moving it to a new S2K Tropical Humor Thread was an available option instead.

I don't mean to skew your post with logic, fact, or common sense but Boca (random S. Fl. location) is about 475 miles south of Savannah and Miami is even further south then that (just a rabbit's butt hair more then 100 miles, huh?). Oh, and just how long do you think it takes to move several million people, handicapped, elderly, and hospital patients away from the coastline during an otherwise normal couple of school and work traffic day while a monster Cat 4 hurricane is barreling down.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3554 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:14 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:by the way this current upper air recon mission is finally sampling the environment near the carolinas. 18z models might shift even more one way or the other. if they find the ridging strong well you know..
im very surprised the gfs is shifting so far to the sw.. :roll:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3555 Postby artist » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:18 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3556 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:22 pm

artist wrote:[i mg]https://s33.postimg.cc/z0xd981pb/storm_06.gif[/img]


I can’t imagine the NHC anxiety with Euro a big time outlier... Wow
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3557 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:24 pm

Blinhart wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Raebie wrote:
Yeah, but a lot of the SC folks have evacuated to northern GA.


That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" :cheesy: Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.


All 3 of those could be getting flooding rains. They need to go further West past Atlanta.
.

Incorrect. I'm fairly confident that all three of those city infrastructures can manage the under 1.5" of rain that current GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation is presently forecast for those location during the next 200 + hours. But sure, take an extended road trip - maybe Memphis?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3558 Postby FLeastcoast » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:30 pm

chaser1 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
That's okay, there'll be a few Motel 6's in N. Florida that'll "leave the light on for ya" :cheesy: Seriously though, if your really concerned then i'd just head to Athens, Augusta, or Macon.


All 3 of those could be getting flooding rains. They need to go further West past Atlanta.
.

Incorrect. I'm fairly confident that all three of those city infrastructures can manage the under 1.5" of rain that current GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation is presently forecast for those location during the next 200 + hours. But sure, take an extended road trip - maybe Memphis?


Chaser..is that because it doesn't seem to stall as long when it shows it going more south?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3559 Postby FLeastcoast » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:33 pm

FLeastcoast wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
All 3 of those could be getting flooding rains. They need to go further West past Atlanta.
.

Incorrect. I'm fairly confident that all three of those city infrastructures can manage the under 1.5" of rain that current GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation is presently forecast for those location during the next 200 + hours. But sure, take an extended road trip - maybe Memphis?


Chaser..is that because it doesn't seem to stall as long when it shows it going more south?
umm I might mean west..I am terrible at directional things...I mean when it goes more towards GA area
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3560 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:37 pm

Euro Ensembles...... many showing similar to what Euro Operational shows

Image
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