ATL: FLORENCE - Models

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3561 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:42 pm

Well based on those ensembles perhaps the Euro hasn't left the reservation after all. It shall be very interesting to see tonight's 00z runs of the entire model suite to see if the Euro repeats the madness we just saw and more importantly if others follow suit. The 18z GFS run may provide some insight as well but we all know that run is notorious for some crazy things. 18z will give us an idea but 00z tonight is what I'd put more stock in.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3562 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:46 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Well based on those ensembles perhaps the Euro hasn't left the reservation after all. It shall be very interesting to see tonight's 00z runs of the entire model suite to see if the Euro repeats the madness we just saw and more importantly if others follow suit. The 18z GFS run may provide some insight as well but we all know that run is notorious for some crazy things. 18z will give us an idea but 00z tonight is what I'd put more stock in.


They are also doing the upper air recon currently and look to be only focused on the environment off the Carolinas. before upper recon mission were focused on the environment around Florence. SO could be interesting at 18z.. and 00z.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3563 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:46 pm

chaser1 wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:
PTPatrick wrote:This would’ve a positive development from a surge perspective. If the storm doesn’t fully move onshore in NC the full surge likely wouldn’t come in yet...although it would still be a large surge just east where the center parks for a bit and it wouldn’t go down for a couple days due to continuous onshore fetch. But the surge in SC on that track would be minimal due to prolonged offshore fetch for days.


If the eye diameter is as big as the HWRF indicates, I'm not so sure about that


I disagree. On that track and with a very slow motion, I'd thing that there could be a tremendous surge in the northern quad. as the center were to slide southward (especially if timed with the seasonal high tides anticipated later this week)


I didn’t mean to say it wouldn’t be a huge surge north of the center. It will be. What I was really getting at is that I think - and I’m not an expert - that the main surge event would be north east of center as it got close to NC, and be a lesser event down coast. I storm hitting Charleston form the north east parallel and close to the coast is not optimal for surge development there.

If however things change and it never fully approaches the Wilmington coast and hits SC from the southeast or east, then it will be a different story.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3564 Postby wayoutfront » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:47 pm

A little more than an hour until the 5 PM...I trust the NHC guys to sort out the latest runs. over the last 20 years or so I enjoy the models...but rely on the NHC to show me how they sort the wheat from the chaff .....seems GFS couldnt even see the ridge..now it's over compensating ..
Last edited by wayoutfront on Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3565 Postby Steve » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:49 pm

PTPatrick wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:
If the eye diameter is as big as the HWRF indicates, I'm not so sure about that


I disagree. On that track and with a very slow motion, I'd thing that there could be a tremendous surge in the northern quad. as the center were to slide southward (especially if timed with the seasonal high tides anticipated later this week)


I didn’t mean to say it wouldn’t be a huge surge north of the center. It will be. What I was really getting at is that I think - and I’m not an expert - that the main surge event would be north east of center as it got close to NC, and be a lesser event down coast. I storm hitting Charleston form the north east parallel and close to the coast is not optimal for surge development there.


Angle will matter, but south of the circulation center on an eastward facing shore would have an offshore flow. That doesn't mean that surge from bays inland and what not can't hit barrier islands from the backside, as obviously they can. But with the flow counterclockwise, the northern half of the storm (and out front of that) is where the onshore surge is. So I think you're close.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3566 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 2:50 pm

FLeastcoast wrote:
chaser1 wrote:
Blinhart wrote:
All 3 of those could be getting flooding rains. They need to go further West past Atlanta.
.

Incorrect. I'm fairly confident that all three of those city infrastructures can manage the under 1.5" of rain that current GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation is presently forecast for those location during the next 200 + hours. But sure, take an extended road trip - maybe Memphis?


Chaser..is that because it doesn't seem to stall as long when it shows it going more south?


No, nothing really at all to do with that. As long as Florence were to strike near Savannah or north of that point, those areas that will experience flooding rains will of course be near the center but also those areas focused primarily north to northeast of center. The strong counterclockwise circulation of Florence will surely spread rain to Augusta (about 130 miles to the northwest of Savannah) but Florences' circulation would have to be carrying those rain bands from a fetch of distance from north of Charleston to reach Augusta (assuming that the storm actually were to track as far south as Savannah). Present GFS forecast does not call for that and rainfall rates would likely rise for there if the GFS shifted significantly more south. Regardless, while I could see Augusta picking up a least a few inches of rain in that scenario, I certainly would not find it particularly threatening. Athens and Macon are further west yet. Bottom line is that the West side of the storm will typically remain the side experiencing less wind and rain (unless dealing with a west or northwest moving storm). The only circumstance where I could see inland Georgia getting a lot of rain would be if the storm actually was driven well inland and over those areas. Not impossible and things could change, but not based on current track and not currently anticipated.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3567 Postby FLeastcoast » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:00 pm

chaser1 wrote:
FLeastcoast wrote:
chaser1 wrote:.

Incorrect. I'm fairly confident that all three of those city infrastructures can manage the under 1.5" of rain that current GFS Total Accumulated Precipitation is presently forecast for those location during the next 200 + hours. But sure, take an extended road trip - maybe Memphis?


Chaser..is that because it doesn't seem to stall as long when it shows it going more south?


No, nothing really at all to do with that. As long as Florence were to strike near Savannah or north of that point, those areas that will experience flooding rains will of course be near the center but also those areas focused primarily north to northeast of center. The strong counterclockwise circulation of Florence will surely spread rain to Augusta (about 130 miles to the northwest of Savannah) but Florences' circulation would have to be carrying those rain bands from a fetch of distance from north of Charleston to reach Augusta (assuming that the storm actually were to track as far south as Savannah). Present GFS forecast does not call for that and rainfall rates would likely rise for there if the GFS shifted significantly more south. Regardless, while I could see Augusta picking up a least a few inches of rain in that scenario, I certainly would not find it particularly threatening. Athens and Macon are further west yet. Bottom line is that the West side of the storm will typically remain the side experiencing less wind and rain (unless dealing with a west or northwest moving storm). The only circumstance where I could see inland Georgia getting a lot of rain would be if the storm actually was driven well inland and over those areas. Not impossible and things could change, but not based on current track and not currently anticipated.


Thank you for explaining it :)
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3568 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:02 pm

looks like the recon plane sampling upper atm. is find the extent of the 591/592 ridging farther south and west than the models initialized. dont know if that will change anything.. but will see.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3569 Postby sponger » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:11 pm

The Euro is showing much stronger ridging than was forecast. Also not showing any tilt, just a brick wall. It sometimes has wacky runs that come back to sanity or it may be sniffing out the final pattern. I am staying up for the 2am unfortunately. Need to see if it concurs this trainwreck. Regardless, I do not expect major changes at 5pm. The NHC will likely wait for more data.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3570 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:14 pm

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3571 Postby Blown Away » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:27 pm

tolakram wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/ywaJPPX.gif



Hurricane forecasters have a lot of down time I'm guessing, I can say that b/c I work for local government, but I don't envy this call following the Euro run b/c it's clear at times when models are all over they just lean Euro until things work out. This time most models generally showing same scenerio into NC and the Euro says no I'm going to Savannah. Those NHC guys earning their coin with this one... :D
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3572 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:35 pm

Blown Away wrote:
tolakram wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/ywaJPPX.gif



Hurricane forecasters have a lot of down time I'm guessing, I can say that b/c I work for local government, but I don't envy this call following the Euro run b/c it's clear at times when models are all over they just lean Euro until things work out. This time most models generally showing same scenerio into NC and the Euro says no I'm going to Savannah. Those NHC guys earning their coin with this one... :D


Makes me wonder if JAX could be in play at some point - hey Aric, you got any lotto numbers since you're turning into Nostradamus lately? :lol:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3573 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:42 pm

by the way.. for what its worth.. the 18z NAM which has the new upper air data has more ridging farther south initially and more expansive ridging north of florence in 60 hours..

rest of the models might also shift west again for 18z..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3574 Postby wayoutfront » Tue Sep 11, 2018 3:49 pm

Wonder how many balloons are in the air right now ..

Could probably jump from one to another across the whole US as they try to get a handle on the ridge ...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3575 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:by the way.. for what its worth.. the 18z NAM which has the new upper air data has more ridging farther south initially and more expansive ridging north of florence in 60 hours..

rest of the models might also shift west again for 18z..

Looking at the 3km Nam, it stalls slightly to the east of where it was on the 12z Nam with a higher pressure. Not sure how to post the trend gif.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3576 Postby MississippiWx » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:25 pm

Just now getting a chance to see the 12z Euro. Excuse me, but WTH.

Going to hope that is incorrect. Talk about a nightmare scenario for beach erosion. :eek:
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3577 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:28 pm

I'm wondering if it is possible that the Euro and potentially the other models will latch onto the idea of Florence stalling offshore before taking a left hook into the coastline. If I recall, the CMC had a solution like this into the Georgia coast a few days ago. This 18z suite and tonight's 00z suite should prove to be either very enlightening or serve to more confuse the situation.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3578 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:33 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I'm wondering if it is possible that the Euro and potentially the other models will latch onto the idea of Florence stalling offshore before taking a left hook into the coastline. If I recall, the CMC had a solution like this into the Georgia coast a few days ago. This 18z suite and tonight's 00z suite should prove to be either very enlightening or serve to more confuse the situation.


I would be shocked to see this landfall south of Charleston, the models can’t possibly have underestimated the strength of the ridge by that much. I would think the 0z Euro will come around to a onshore solution once again. Watch the 18z GFS show a OTS just to really confuse everyone even more.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3579 Postby bigGbear » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:41 pm

GFS East at 30 Hrs
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Models

#3580 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 11, 2018 4:43 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:I'm wondering if it is possible that the Euro and potentially the other models will latch onto the idea of Florence stalling offshore before taking a left hook into the coastline. If I recall, the CMC had a solution like this into the Georgia coast a few days ago. This 18z suite and tonight's 00z suite should prove to be either very enlightening or serve to more confuse the situation.
Between all the models and runs something is going to verify, even the cmc has a shot
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