ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[bigGbear]

more east at 42

[tallywx]

Back to its old tricks of unrealistic deepening close to land. Junk run on its way.

[jlauderdal]

more east at 42

The gfs in the final analysis might verify but damn does that model like to go right

[Steve]

GFS East at 30 Hrs

ENE by a hair at 48. Interest for me will be later in the run as to whether it wants to slip back SW down the coast as it had been showing (was inland at 12z) and like the EC is showing or if it will move more inland.

[Raebie]

more east at 42

East? It's still taking it into the Wilmington area.

[bigGbear]

drifting w along the coast at 60

[Steve]

Back to its old tricks of unrealistic deepening close to land. Junk run on its way.

Landfall friction on an east facing shore often leads to tighter wrapping. We see that most often with perpendicular tracks into Texas, but it’s not as impossible as a lot of other things it does. That’s for sure.

[Steve]

drifting w along the coast at 60

Cutting SW down the coast at 66H and close to Cape Fear. GFS has led in the slowdown scenario and here through 72 hours, that’s going to be the case again. How long will it be along the coast as a Cat 3? 105 hours was the longest and I think that was a run Saturday or Sunday

[Hurricaneman]

drifting w along the coast at 60

Cutting SW down the coast at 66H and close to Cape Fear.

Just like the Euro, might have to watch for a SSW movement within 100 miles from the coast

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 78...Comes to the coast and then backs away. I had to look twice to make sure I was hitting the forward button on the model instead of backwards.

[Blown Away]

Trend is models slowing Flo earlier before hitting NC coast.

[Steve]

drifting w along the coast at 60

Cutting SW down the coast at 66H and close to Cape Fear.

Just like the Euro, might have to watch for a SSW movement within 100 miles from the coast

Moves east a hair at 78 which I think is indicative of a sit and spin. Pressure is up to 950, so while very destructive, it’s given up on its 9-teens

[SunnyThoughts]

Just sitting there and battering the NC coast for hours and hours and hours. Jesus

[Steve]

At 90H it might be making a move for the NC/SC border. That’s roughly 42 hours so far of onshore flow north of the system. Lots of the ocean will be pushed into the coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

You've got to be kidding me. This is looking really similar to the Euro earlier. The big question may become just when Florence hits the brakes and decides to stop. A stall leads to so many complications with the forecast.

[bigGbear]

backing out at 90

[supercane4867]

18z GFS appears to be similar to 12z EC

[Steve]

96 and still at the coast. We’re on about 40 hours plus of inner core along the southern islands and southern NC coast. Damn. Also pressure back down to 948.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Oh no GFS what is you doin? (This looks a lot like the Euro and is bending SW)

[tallywx]

Heading southwest like Euro! Unbelievable.