WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

[supercane4867]

FXPQ20 RJTD 111200
RSMC GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST
NAME TY 1822 MANGKHUT (1822)
PSTN 111200UTC 13.7N 138.7E
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
FORECAST BY GLOBAL MODEL
TIME PSTN PRES MXWD
(CHANGE FROM T=0)
T=012 13.7N 136.5E -001HPA -004KT (914 hPa)
T=024 14.1N 134.4E -011HPA +005KT (904 hPa)
T=048 15.3N 130.0E -026HPA +015KT (889 hPa)
T=072 17.6N 125.7E -036HPA +019KT (879 hPa)

[1900hurricane]

Much of the future intensity now likely hinges on how Mangkhut fares as it goes through eyewall replacement. A successful round may take the system to new heights while a botched cycle likely means we're observing the system's peak right now. More notable hints that eyewall replacement is likely soon coming can be seen on the latest F-18 pass I have below.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 112100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING
NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268 NM
NORTH OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE USING
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY WHICH SHOWS A ROUND, 24
NM WIDE EYE AND INTENSE RAIN BANDS EXTENDING 200 NM FROM THE CENTER.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS) FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (29-30 C), AND EXCELLENT RADIAL
OUTFLOW. NOTABLY, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING AIDED BY TWO TUTT CELLS,
ONE TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE OTHER TO THE EAST. THE CYCLONE IS
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. STY 26W WILL TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS THE
STR REORIENTS SLIGHTLY. CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
WILL ALLOW STY 26W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 150 KTS BY TAU 36
BEFORE REDUCED OUTFLOW BEGINS A WEAKENING TREND, FALLING TO 130 KTS
BY TAU 72. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
BUT THE CONSENSUS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY LOW FOR PAST WARNINGS ON
THIS CYCLONE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 26W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF THE STR ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, MAKING LANDFALL SOUTH
OF HONG KONG JUST PRIOR TO TAU 120. LAND INTERACTION, DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, AND DIMINISHED OUTFLOW WILL ACCELERATE WEAKENING,
BRINGING THE INTENSITY TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120. TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN STRONG AGREEMENT, WITH CTCX BEING A SLIGHT SOUTHERN OUTLIER,
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09111648
SATCON: MSLP = 915 hPa MSW = 151 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 144.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 142 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 215 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -0.7 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 920 hPa 137 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP111640
CIMSS AMSU: 895 hPa 167 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09111211
ATMS: 912.4 hPa 151.3 knots Date: 09111648
SSMIS: 912.4 hPa 151.3 knots Date: 09111648
CIRA ATMS: 920 hPa 133 knots Date:

[euro6208]

Continuing to strengthen. I'd say anywhere between 155 to 170 knots. Insane.

[1900hurricane]

It drives me crazy that ADT can't even reach a CI of 7.0 with such a warm eye embedded in a huge white shade CDO. What else does it want?

[euro6208]

Yup driving the intensity down.

[mrbagyo]

It drives me crazy that ADT can't even reach a CI of 7.0 with such a warm eye embedded in a huge white shade CDO. What else does it want?

Could it be the longitudinal bias you've noticed with Winston?

[1900hurricane]

It drives me crazy that ADT can't even reach a CI of 7.0 with such a warm eye embedded in a huge white shade CDO. What else does it want?

Could it be the longitudinal bias you've noticed with Winston?

It absolutely is. A different algorithm is used in the NAtl/EPac vs the rest of the world, although I could not explain the reason why this is. Mangkhut's ADT intensity estimates would be higher with no other changes other than merely being on the other side of the International Date Line.

[Kingarabian]

It's no doubt a Cat.5. Not even debateable.

[mrbagyo]

That part in the algorithm doesn't make sense. Why would they do that? Thats just crazy.

[euro6208]

It drives me crazy that ADT can't even reach a CI of 7.0 with such a warm eye embedded in a huge white shade CDO. What else does it want?

Could it be the longitudinal bias you've noticed with Winston?

It absolutely is. A different algorithm is used in the NAtl/EPac vs the rest of the world, although I could not explain the reason why this is. Mangkhut's ADT intensity estimates would be higher with no other changes other than merely being on the other side of the International Date Line.

True. I read something about this about how some intense storms from the CPAC crossing the dateline dips their whole ADT numbers alot. Clearly biased at ADT.

[Kingarabian]

Is their a paper to back their low bias reasoning for WPAC systems?

[WAcyclone]

Wow.

[euro6208]

Sunrise over Mangkhut.

[euro6208]

Too bad no recon.

[doomhaMwx]

Lightning streak in Mangkhut's rainbands.

[doomhaMwx]

Another image at sunrise.


Himawari-8 RGB
09-11-2018 9:30pm UTC

[euro6208]

SATCON at 158 knots. This is clearly stronger than 140. Presentation is unbelievable.