ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[DESTRUCTION5]

She certainly looks like she is not a fan of NC..wow.

[supercane4867]

With that kind of a ridge over Great Lakes there’s nowhere to go but SW

[SunnyThoughts]

108 sliding down the SC coastline after battering NC...now its SC's turn.

[Hurricaneman]

Heading southwest like Euro! Unbelievable.

Looks like a possible Georgia landfall

[SouthFLTropics]

Clearly moving SW offshore of SC now. Without a doubt this afternoon's runs of the Euro and GFS may be the strangest I've seen in the less than 120 hour time frame. The fact that the GFS backs up what the Euro was saying earlier has to lend some credence to the solution. A possible threat further South along the coast cannot be ignored.

[Steve]

Still offshore at 108 , pressure at 947 and about 1/3 of the way down then SC Coast.

Fwiw, GFS sniffed out a stall way before the EC did even if it was looping and/or offshore (or even making this move inland) on earlier runs. EC did not lead the way on that like it did in pinpointing the general area.

[SunnyThoughts]

Clearly moving SW offshore of SC now. Without a doubt this afternoon's runs of the Euro and GFS may be the strangest I've seen in the less than 120 hour time frame. The fact that the GFS backs up what the Euro was saying earlier has to lend some credence to the solution. A possible threat further South along the coast cannot be ignored.

I agree, when we get the same scenario from both models within just a few hours of each other, have to give it some weight for sure. Unbelievable

[SunnyThoughts]

120 still sliding down the coast of SC, headed for GA I guess.

[supercane4867]

Looks like landfall near Charleston

[bigGbear]

moving inland at 126

[tallywx]

Charleston landfall, hour 129.

[mlfreeman]

Looks like we have consensus on somewhere around Hilton Head.

Figures...the governor just lifted the evac order for that part of the coastline.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Models stopping before Wilmington, that should help keep the bad stuff away, right?

[Steve]

Looks like landfall near Charleston

Still not onshore at 126H. That’s alnost 3.25 days of coastal battery. Edit 129 it is in SE SC
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 118&fh=126

[dspguy]

That close to land, would it keep up strength like the GFS is showing? That's still a Cat-4.

[tallywx]

Someone needs to start analyzing the wind shear profile for this thing if it stays offshore. Can it maintain or will it be a decoupled husk of its former self?

[SunnyThoughts]

Hour 132, the entire state of SC has a 967mb system sitting pretty close to being smack dab in the center of the state. Course the 967 is just a number at best considering the length of time it batters the coast.

[hurricaneCW]

Florence essentially rides the gulf stream until LF in SC. This would be a lot better for inland areas but an absolute nightmare for the coast. That's days of surge flooding and battering waves for Carolinas.

[Raebie]

I feel sick.

[SouthFLTropics]

My how things have changed. This is an extremely fluid situation. I suspect we could still see some decent shifts over the next 24 hours as the models try to resolve this stall as well as the strength of the building ridge. The fact is that the models that were locked in on a target 5 days out have changed. Based on what we just saw the Charleston landfall would be 5 days out. I think we'll see more changes as the clock progresses.