ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[GTStorm]

C'mon, man.

[Ken711]

SC landfall Charleston area.

[Nimbus]

Maybe they waited till 18Z because they were not sure of the timing for the stall?
This gives South Carolina over 72 hours to implement their plans (if they buy the stall scenario).

[Raebie]

Models stopping before Wilmington, that should help keep the bad stuff away, right?

No. It's a disaster.

[SconnieCane]

Would a landfall anywhere along the SC/GA coasts from the northeast be historically unprecedented?

[bigGbear]

heading for Charlotte at 144

[wayoutfront]

Maybe they waited till 18Z because they were not sure of the timing for the stall?
This gives South Carolina over 72 hours to implement their plans (if they buy the stall scenario).

Hurry county has been under mandatory evacuation for a couple days already ...All three zones

They haven't been sitting and waiting ..they understand what the cone means and have been working like they are in the centerline

[SunnyThoughts]

Even at hour 144, with Florence sitting in the center of SC, you can see the onshore push of water still going into NC

[SunnyThoughts]

Geeze @ 150...north to central Nc

[Raebie]

heading for Charlotte at 144

Stellar. So both of my houses are screwed.

[sponger]

Oh my! Anyone who wants to work for NHC should be asked to analyze today's Euro and GFS, make a forecast and draw up evac recos. Definitely earning their money today!

[SunnyThoughts]

162...virginia how many more states can she hit. Still showing 998mb by then btw. That is one WEEK from today.

[seahawkjd]

Do we have the rain totals from that model yet? Its still raining on the coast into Monday / Tuesday.....

[Blinhart]

so I have a feeling at the next update of the cone they will slowly start drifting the cone to the SW, don't know how much they are gonna move it, but they should move it. If at the 00Z it continues to show this SW dive I expect a much larger shift.

[PTPatrick]

Someone needs to start analyzing the wind shear profile for this thing if it stays offshore. Can it maintain or will it be a decoupled husk of its former self?

on a quick look at the GFS 10 M wind chart it never does a great job at throwing much more than TS force inland over NC. IT seems to do a little better at moving wind over land in SC at real landfall. BUT it still is only showing around hurricane force just inland from Charleston as it moves ashore. I am guessing by that point after sitting over shallower upwelled waters and half on land, it will probably back down to cat 2. I am not a met, so I dont know how much to trust the GFS 10 meter wind chart but I would say not to.

I wouldnt trust any of it. The longer this thing delays landfall the further out landfall goes from the watchful eye of the models. We are talking potentially Sunday Night now so you can take it to the bank that things will change as far as the landfall point...thats over 5 days and we cant even nail 3 yet.

one thing is for sure that even low end hurricane force wind, prolonged, with saturated ground will make waste of many trees in the area.

[Raebie]

If the ridge is so strong that it causes that SW dive, how does she get so far north in the first place??

[jlauderdal]

so I have a feeling at the next update of the cone they will slowly start drifting the cone to the SW, don't know how much they are gonna move it, but they should move it. If at the 00Z it continues to show this SW dive I expect a much larger shift.

The cone moves in tandem with the official nhc track..its not random

[Blinhart]

Maybe they waited till 18Z because they were not sure of the timing for the stall?
This gives South Carolina over 72 hours to implement their plans (if they buy the stall scenario).

Hurry county has been under mandatory evacuation for a couple days already ...All three zones

They haven't been sitting and waiting ..they understand what the cone means and have been working like they are in the centerline

But the SC Governor cancelled mandatory evacuations in 3 different counties.
http://www.wtoc.com/story/39061644/gov- ... n-counties

[jlauderdal]

If the ridge is so strong that it causes that SW dive, how does she get so far north in the first place??

Ridges come and go like troughs, fluid dynamics, constant motion which is so complex that the models struggle

[Blinhart]

so I have a feeling at the next update of the cone they will slowly start drifting the cone to the SW, don't know how much they are gonna move it, but they should move it. If at the 00Z it continues to show this SW dive I expect a much larger shift.

The cone moves in tandem with the official nhc track..its not random

REALLY, I know that, I was talking about when the NHC does their update on their track.