ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Raebie]

If the ridge is so strong that it causes that SW dive, how does she get so far north in the first place??

Ridges come and go like troughs, fluid dynamics, constant motion which is so complex that the models struggle

Makes sense. They've been sampling the ridge today so I'm gonna wait for that data to make it into the models. Hopefully they'll get a handle on it. It seems that they aren't there yet.

[SunnyThoughts]

Aric stated earlier that Gonzo was sampling the upper atmosphere along the Carolinas concerning the ridge etc...Perhaps that will help in the next suite of models. We may be looking at an entire different situation then. But who knows. I don't envy the NHC at all, and considering all these other storms and invests they are having to deal with at the same time. I cant even

[robbielyn]

If the ridge is so strong that it causes that SW dive, how does she get so far north in the first place??

i’m. guessing as she moves into the ridge the ridge pushes her sw as it gets stronger moving south

[MrStormX]

I suspect that Invest 95L is also having an impact on the model runs.

[Raebie]

Aric stated earlier that Gonzo was sampling the upper atmosphere along the Carolinas concerning the ridge etc...Perhaps that will help in the next suite of models. We may be looking at an entire different situation then. But who knows. I don't envy the NHC at all, and considering all these other storms and invests they are having to deal with at the same time. I cant even

WELL MY STORM IS THE MOST IMPORTANT!!

[tolakram]

18Z GFS

[Ken711]

If the ridge is so strong that it causes that SW dive, how does she get so far north in the first place??

The orientation of the ridge perhaps.

[Aric Dunn]

the gfs is a little faster with the sw movement. keeps it stronger throughout.

[Blinhart]

18Z GFS
https://i.imgur.com/J8AHOKx.gif

At the end is that her coming back for an encore????

[Fishing]

the gfs is a little faster with the sw movement. keeps it stronger throughout.

What are we looking at if it landfalls in Charleston? We are here and stayed for Hugo. Definitely do not want to do that again.

[catskillfire51]

18Z GFS
https://i.imgur.com/J8AHOKx.gif

At the end is that her coming back for an encore????

Sure looks like it, it's off GA at 300Hr

[catskillfire51]

Another landfall at Fl/Ga line

[PandaCitrus]

The Euro Ensembles show many Cat 1 and Cat 2 members during the stall phase. It could go like Hurricane Diana and Florence could weaken to a Cat 1/2 before an eventual landfall because of increased land interaction, shear, dry air, and upwelling while she sits and spins for hours and hours.

If the core of the storm is far enough away, the north carolina coast may luck out with similar effects to what Florida received with Hurricane Matthew. Some Cat 1 conditions, flooding, beach erosion but no catastrophic damage.

It could be a lot worse honestly. I think this is preferable to a Cat 3/4 barrelling in like Hugo. Also the coastal scraper avoids the inland flood catastrophe.

[Aric Dunn]

the gfs is a little faster with the sw movement. keeps it stronger throughout.

What are we looking at if it landfalls in Charleston? We are here and stayed for Hugo. Definitely do not want to do that again.

very hard to say. model consensus is the best we go with right now. NHC will be in top ofit

[HurricaneBelle]

Another landfall at Fl/Ga line

Reminiscent of the Matthew GFS runs a couple of years ago where he moved off NC and then whipped around back to hit SFL.

EDIT: After watching the run a bit more closely, it's looks like Flo's remnants move into NY/New England but there's a trailing trough from them and what hits FL/GA is something new that forms from the tail end of the trough.

[tolakram]

I didn't intend to save that much of the loop. Something to completely ignore IMO, too far out and these post landfall loops rarely amount to anything.

[Ken711]

If the ridge is so strong that it causes that SW dive, how does she get so far north in the first place??

Ridges come and go like troughs, fluid dynamics, constant motion which is so complex that the models struggle

Makes sense. They've been sampling the ridge today so I'm gonna wait for that data to make it into the models. Hopefully they'll get a handle on it. It seems that they aren't there yet.

Levi Cowan has a good explanation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wml6hafjrUQ

[Blinhart]

So only one shows it getting to Cat 5 now, but that can still change.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok...that run of the 18z GFS was hands down the craziest complete run I think I've ever watched. Later in the period it spins off another storm or is that Florence again coming back and hitting FL/GA line and then diving SE into the Bahamas and developing??? What in the world???

[supercane4867]

18z FV3 GFS still has a initial landfall near Wilmington