ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Ken711]

FV3-GFS landfalls north of the 12z.

[dspguy]

the gfs is a little faster with the sw movement. keeps it stronger throughout.

What are we looking at if it landfalls in Charleston? We are here and stayed for Hugo. Definitely do not want to do that again.

I sort of asked that earlier - if it stayed off-the-coast for about 3 days, how much weaker would the storm be? I know there's warm water, but I figure the interaction with land would have to slow it down. And before someone says it, of course I'd be worried about rain accumulation over that span of time. Speaking for myself, wind speed is what concerns me.

[dspguy]

FV3-GFS landfalls north of the 12z.

Next frame, it appears to nudge south. That might be the stall and the start of the ride down the coast that the Euro and GFS showed us earlier.

[tolakram]

Doesn't appear to make a full landfall, eye gets about half way on the coast then backs away.

[Ken711]

Doesn't appear to make a full landfall, eye gets about half way on the coast then backs away.

Looking closer I agree.

[tolakram]

It's going to end up with a solution similar to the Euro and GFS. Crazy.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS and Euro in agreement so far.

[tallywx]

It's going to end up with a solution similar to the Euro and GFS. Crazy.

Details please. I'm only seeing out through 90hrs when it's still stalled slightly SW of Cape Fear.

[supercane4867]

18z HWRF

[PandaCitrus]

GFS FV3 has a second landfall around Charleston SC.

[Aric Dunn]

the models that turn wsw and sw faster or come to a stall by slamming on their brakes are still coming in as a cat 4 .. hwrf coming in as a strong cat 4 at the 10m winds hight and 160kts at the 850 mb hight.

dont let your guard down with the current intensity forecast.

[tolakram]

It's going to end up with a solution similar to the Euro and GFS. Crazy.

Details please. I'm only seeing out through 90hrs when it's still stalled slightly SW of Cape Fear.

18Z FV3-GFS (incomplete)

[PTPatrick]

Early Sunday GFS FV3 at 108 hrs is pretty much a Charleston hit like GFS. Showing a pressure of 981 tho which means it doesn’t thing cat 3 strength will hold in the area. It also shows some rising prsssure on approach on to Wilmington area in the 960s there. Incedently it appaears to make an actual andfall at Wilmington so that could explain the extra loss of strength for Charleston

[Ken711]

GFS FV3 has a second landfall around Charleston SC.

http://wx.graphics/models/fv3gfs_florence.png

That's very similar to the 12z Euro track.

[tolakram]

FV3-GFS 18z complete end of run

[PandaCitrus]

The full run of the HWRF is terrible for South Carolina. Landfall in Myrtle Beach and then plows west into South Carolina and Georgia.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91118&fh=6

[GTStorm]

0Z early guidance

[crimi481]

Would you say this is a model trend? s.w

[NDG]

NHC will have but no option but to shift the track SW closer to the TVCN, GFS and Euro after day 2.5-5 day range.

[Blown Away]

TVCN (Grey Line) buying into the SW movement just offshore...