ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[dukeblue219]

I want to get some recon in this soon, pretty sure it's a bit stronger than 140 mph right now even with the dry air on the SW side.

Another 20 minutes or so... looks like they'll cross SW to NE on this pass.

[Blown Away]

[bamajammer4eva]

Can anyone think of any historical hurricanes that did what the 12z Euro and 18z GFS are showing? The only one that is somewhat similar that I can find is Betsy in 1965 but she was much farther south.

Not the same approach, but a collapse of steering currents and a loop just before landfall: Diana, 1984

[url]https://www.weather.gov/images/mhx/19840913/image002.jpg

Heres another one-if you just slide it a few hundred miles north, it looks very similar to what the Euro is showing and a similar setup

[drezee]

Early recon says wind field has expanded in the SW quad...

[dukeblue219]

That's pretty amazing, that boat was going to be toast in a short period of time. Just outside the outer bands and they would have had to go a long way to avoid it, I don't think they would have made it even if they realized they had to move.

I haven't seen anything that suggests the sailors were actually "rescued" per se. Certainly the WC-130D didn't pick them up. I was assuming they just located the boat and then radioed down "Get the F out of the way, morons!"

Ok, found another set of tweets from a Met who said "The Air Force spoke with them. They didn’t want help and are speeding out of the path."

[Kazmit]

That's pretty amazing, that boat was going to be toast in a short period of time. Just outside the outer bands and they would have had to go a long way to avoid it, I don't think they would have made it even if they realized they had to move.

I don't understand how they didn't know about the category 4 hurricane nearby. As a sailor, checking on weather should be top priority.

[AnnularCane]

https://i.imgur.com/3DOQVZo.jpg

Florence looks EXACTLY like an embryo.

[Hurricane Andrew]

https://i.imgur.com/3DOQVZo.jpg

Florence looks EXACTLY like an embryo.

Thanks alot...how am I ever supposed to unsee that?

[drezee]

Early recon says wind field has expanded in the SW quad...

Hurricane force actually

[Extratropical94]

Latest pass: 943 mb extrapolated

[Blinhart]

Early recon says wind field has expanded in the SW quad...

Hurricane force actually

Just what no one on the East Coast wants to hear, that the wind field is expanding even more.

[NDG]

Pressure is down to around 945mb +-1mb

005930 2754N 06814W 6968 02669 9432 +181 +062 107010 011 024 000 00

[dukeblue219]

Pressure is down, but winds (in the weaker side) were only 91kt FL and 100kt on the SFMR. Will wait for the other side of the eyewall now... and any dropsondes as well.

[supercane4867]

Recon may find windspeed in NE eyewall close to the advisory intensity. No surprise that SW eyewall is weak due to the dry air intrusion just occurred.

[hurricaneCW]

Pressure is down, but winds (in the weaker side) were only 91kt FL and 100kt on the SFMR. Will wait for the other side of the eyewall now... and any dropsondes as well.

Guessing that's due to the wind expansion.

[canetracker]

Is that black colored area dry air in the center of this IR loop???
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-48-1-100-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

Click the globe and turn on the temperature color bar overlay. Those are super cold cloud tops, colder than red.

Thanks!

[Extratropical94]

Strongest FL winds in the NE eyewall are around 126 kts, with 105 kts SFMR

[Hammy]

Strongest FL winds in the NE eyewall are around 126 kts, with 105 kts SFMR

No way this is still a Cat 4 based on that, which is good news.

[drezee]

Recon: Winds in NE quad are at 105kts surface and at 126kts flight level

[NDG]

126 knot flight level winds is the highest so far, seems like it has not really gotten any stronger during the past few hours.

010500 2808N 06759W 6963 02807 9633 +119 +063 140122 126 105 000 03