ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[GTStorm]

Would you say this is a model trend? s.w

maybe, but hard to believe this is sustainable. Seems like the complex ridging set-up the models are picking up on is just not normal.

Question for the pros...is this abnormal...or just unfortunate timing? Or both?

[Bocadude85]

TVCN (Grey Line) buying into the SW movement just offshore...

The 0z models are going to be very interesting, if the stall happens any further offshore then Georgia could be in trouble.

[Aric Dunn]

early guidance/bams shift west again..

[sponger]

early guidance/bams shift west again..

I honestly thought SC was being overly cautious two days ago, especially the southern half of the state.

[jlauderdal]

early guidance/bams shift west again..

Models been struggling with ridges for years...to be fair this is an extremely complex setup, savannah might find itself in the game

[invest man]

NHC will have but no option but to shift the track SW closer to the TVCN, GFS and Euro after day 2.5-5 day range.

https://i.imgur.com/gKFLBhx.gif

If any of those tracks other than the NHC actually takes place, that would be very bazaar! Last night models were looking like they were going to shift to OTS eventually! Can somebody tell me what has changed or is these models flipping because none of them have ever computed a set up like this and are not handling this well. I still think LF as Cat 3/4 between Emerald Isle and Wilmington then slowly west! IM

[bonjourno]

early guidance/bams shift west again..

What site can you go to see the BAM models? They're not on tropicaltidbits or COD.

[Ken711]

early guidance/bams shift west again..

SC looks like NC did with this early guidance just a few days ago.

[NDG]

NHC will have but no option but to shift the track SW closer to the TVCN, GFS and Euro after day 2.5-5 day range.

https://i.imgur.com/gKFLBhx.gif

If any of those tracks other than the NHC actually takes place, that would be very bazaar! Last night models were looking like they were going to shift to OTS eventually! Can somebody tell me what has changed or is these models flipping because none of them have ever computed a set up like this and are not handling this well. I still think LF as Cat 3/4 between Emerald Isle and Wilmington then slowly west! IM

Stronger ridge will be building to the north over the Great Lakes right before or around landfall making it hit the breaks and eventually track SW and wait for the ridge to keep moving eastward so that it go it goes poleward again.

[p1nheadlarry]

NHC will have but no option but to shift the track SW closer to the TVCN, GFS and Euro after day 2.5-5 day range.

https://i.imgur.com/gKFLBhx.gif

If any of those tracks other than the NHC actually takes place, that would be very bazaar! Last night models were looking like they were going to shift to OTS eventually! Can somebody tell me what has changed or is these models flipping because none of them have ever computed a set up like this and are not handling this well. I still think LF as Cat 3/4 between Emerald Isle and Wilmington then slowly west! IM

Seems to be that the ridge building in from the plains/Great Lakes will be stronger than what is currently steering Florence. Maybe 95L is a player too in causing the continental ridge to strengthen.

[p1nheadlarry]

NHC will have but no option but to shift the track SW closer to the TVCN, GFS and Euro after day 2.5-5 day range.

https://i.imgur.com/gKFLBhx.gif

If any of those tracks other than the NHC actually takes place, that would be very bazaar! Last night models were looking like they were going to shift to OTS eventually! Can somebody tell me what has changed or is these models flipping because none of them have ever computed a set up like this and are not handling this well. I still think LF as Cat 3/4 between Emerald Isle and Wilmington then slowly west! IM

Stronger ridge will be building to the north over the Great Lakes right before or around landfall making it hit the breaks and eventually track SW and wait for the ridge to keep moving eastward so that it go it goes poleward again.

Shoulda hit refresh before I posted

[GTStorm]

More early guidance (0Z)

[Blinhart]

Local Lead Meteorologist down here tweeted this.

https://twitter.com/robperillo/status/1 ... 0907592704

[Garnetcat5]

Anyone have precipitation map for Florence through next seven days? I just see 15 inches which is nonsense.

[jlauderdal]

[i mg]http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2018/al062018/track_early/aal06_2018091200_track_early.png[/img]

More early guidance (0Z)

This has been a textbook example of why there is a cone

[PTPatrick]

just thinking about timing and looking at these models, its entirely possible according to GFS that the area that sticks out (southport, just down from Wilmington) will probably have Onset of TS conditions late tomorrow night. They would continue most of the Thursday and hurricane conditions would begin late Thursday. The hurricane conditions would last from late Thursday night through all day Friday. And most of Saturday. It would finally go back to more typical TS conditions for Sunday and last through about MOnday morning. That is 4+ days of TS conditions and about 2 days of hurricane conditions!

[SeaBrz_FL]

Anyone have precipitation map for Florence through next seven days? I just see 15 inches which is nonsense.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... f#contents

[northjaxpro]

Would you say this is a model trend? s.w

maybe, but hard to believe this is sustainable. Seems like the complex ridging set-up the models are picking up on is just not normal.

Question for the pros...is this abnormal...or just unfortunate timing? Or both?

Ridging is unusually very strong across the Eastern ÇONUS. and the Northwestern Atlatic basin . Currently we are experiencing a very strong positive NAO which looks to carry on through much of September as well.

[wxGuy]

pretty decent move between these frames

[bonjourno]

Did the TAB series replace the BAMs?