ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[Ken711]

0z GFS is very similar to the 12Z ECMWF brings Florence almost down to Savannah.

Good call by the SC governor with regards to evacuations along the coast.

[Blinhart]

0z GFS is very similar to the 12Z ECMWF brings Florence almost down to Savannah.

So if all the other follow suit, I think the NHC will most likely drop the landfall about 40 miles South at the next full advisory. But they will be telling the Emergency Management Action Center what they are seeing and expecting sooner than that. They won't make it look like a major change but will be changing it whenever they can until they can have it where they need it.

[Bocadude85]

0z CMC has shifted southwest some and now has landfall around Morehead City

[Blinhart]

0z GFS is very similar to the 12Z ECMWF brings Florence almost down to Savannah.

Good call by the SC governor with regards to evacuations along the coast.

But he canceled 3 of the counties earlier today.

[Raebie]

0z GFS is very similar to the 12Z ECMWF brings Florence almost down to Savannah.

Good call by the SC governor with regards to evacuations along the coast.

Why NC didn't do that too is beyond my understanding.

[La Sirena]

0z GFS is very similar to the 12Z ECMWF brings Florence almost down to Savannah.

Good call by the SC governor with regards to evacuations along the coast.

But he canceled 3 of the counties earlier today.

Yep...the 3 closest counties to the SC/GA line.

[hurricaneCW]

the good news If there is any, is that it doesn't move the cat 4 eyewall ashore(which I would not count on if I lived there) and that is shows basically a cat 1 after late Friday night as it scapes south. This GFS run would be more of a rain event for SC but it would be the whole shebang for NC with or without landfall. Again though, with no obvious steering you cant really count on any of it if you live between Charleston and MB and certainly if you are north of that you shouldn't count on it.

It's very close though, the center may only be 20-30 miles offshore. To me this is a worse run than last because it pretty much rides the NC/SC coastline until landfall (heavy rains getting further inland).

I just hope people don't get complacent if this weakens down to a 1 or 2 when it does officially make LF in SC. The winds may not be as strong but the surge and catastrophic rainfall will not be going away.

IMO there's nothing worse than a stalled major just a few miles offshore. At least storms like Floyd were movers.

[meriland29]

Is she on a ERC right now or about to?

[Captkeith2]

Good call by the SC governor with regards to evacuations along the coast.

But he canceled 3 of the counties earlier today.

Yep...the 3 closest counties to the SC/GA line.

Yes, this is true at noon today he rescinded the evacuation order for Beaufor, Jasper, and Colleton counties. The southern most counties in SC.

[Bocadude85]

0z UKMET is a decent amount southwest of the 12z

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hurricane-model-plots

[Steve]

Canadian spins it down quicker and keeps it close to the shore less than EC and GFS. Low moves SW through Dixie and peters out while mid and upper level moisture moves on. Isaac comes up near day 10 as a solid 2 into Corpus Chrisi.

[jaxfladude]

Another landfall at Fl/Ga line

Just no

[Hurricaneman]

Either the GFS is on crack or Florence loops around after SC landfall to loop back around to Jacksonville and loop back again, talk about insanity. If the Euro shows the same thing I quit

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS-FV3 has Florence heading down the SC coast after clipping Cape Fear, 90hrs is attached below.

[Steve]

Either the GFS is on crack or Florence loops around after SC landfall to loop back around to Jacksonville and loop back again, talk about insanity. If the Euro shows the same thing I quit

Looks like a decoupling or piece peeling back. CMC is similar.

[Hurricaneman]

Either the GFS is on crack or Florence loops around after SC landfall to loop back around to Jacksonville and loop back again, talk about insanity. If the Euro shows the same thing I quit

Looks like a decoupling or piece peeling back. CMC is similar.

The fact that we may be dealing with Florence next week and beyond is just I don’t know as I’ve never seen anything like it

[Bocadude85]

0z HWRF has landfall in Myrtle Beach, Florence looks to be moving almost due west at the time of landfall

[AtlanticWind]

FV3 GFS takes it near savannah

[Steve]

Hmon a little farther inland but also drifts sw across SC.

[Bocadude85]

0z GFS ensemble mean is into South Carolina