ATL: FLORENCE - Models

[forecasterjack]

0z ECMWF verbatim doesn't make landfall near Wilmington, but yikes that eyewall scraping down the coast. You wouldn't be able to tell the storm "stayed offshore" free/shareable full res Euro: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/791-w-341-n/gusts-3h-mph/20180914-1800z.html

[TheDreamTraveler]

Florence makes a big circle ends up off s.carolina coast at 240 hrs, strangest run I ever saw

This season just gets weirder and weirder! Just when you've thought you'd seen it all. Due you realize that run where the EURO brings Flo over the U.S. for an entire 6 days before bringing the storm back over water and re-intensifying to what looks like at least a depression and possibly a storm. SIX DAYS??? There's no way any prior storm has ever made landfall and then regenerated back to a tropical system after that long a period Just nuts.....

Kinda off topic but Hurricane Ivan did that. After landfall it exited off the Virginia coast and then drifted south and across Florida back into the gulf and regenerated into a tropical storm and made landfall near LA/TX. So some crazy things have definitely happened.

Edit: lol nevermind somebody else already brought up Ivan as an example on the last page. Whoops. Didn't see that lol

[forecasterjack]

Some pretty wacky solutions mixed in here. Stall/loop or retrograde SW/onshore is the basic idea. But that could take a lot of different forms http://wx.graphics/models/eps_florence.png

[AtlanticWind]

3 of the Euro ensembles have Florence hit N florida , didn't think that was even possible yesterday.

[p1nheadlarry]

This reminds me of Matthew when the Euro and GFS started showing him doing a loop right off the Carolina coast, and Matthew ignored that advice

[FLeastcoast]

3 of the Euro ensembles have Florence hit N florida , didn't think that was even possible yesterday.

That lowest one looks pretty close to Orlando...

[forecasterjack]

If we can get this ring of -70C cloud tops to close off and maintain itself around the eye, and if we can eliminate that dry air on the western side, whoever finds the core is gonna have some big time troubles down the line. Right on the cusp of taking it to the 'next level' IMO, we'll see if it actually happens. Link to where I got this image from: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2

[jdjaguar]

This is really getting nutty. At this point, Jacksonville, FL might want to start making preparations. This would also make for a much larger disaster in both lives and damage, as Jacksonville's population is many times larger than Savannah, Charleston, or anything anywhere along that stretch of coast.

Not exactly the model run(s) I wanted to wake up to.

[artist]

[northjaxpro]

Wow. Big shift south for the cone of error . NHC 5 a.m. advisory now has the extreme southernn edge of the cone down to the Georgia /Florida line.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... Initiated... Will S shifting continue???

[Blown Away]

06z GFS slower through 12 hrs...

[jlauderdal]

Wow. Big shift south for the cone of error . NHC 5 a.m. advisory now has the extreme southernn edge of the cone down to the Georgia /Florida line.

and we all thought jax was out of it..models definitely heading your direction my friend

[northjaxpro]

I said early last week that I had a bad vibe about Florence. The overnight trends look increasingly very disturbing for South Carolina and possibly even the Georgia coast. That is one hell of a strong ridge building in over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region looking at the latest EURO and GFS.from overnight. Nowhere for Florence to go but west or even more southwest past 48 hours from now.

Quite a change potentially. 6Z GFS about to run.

[otowntiger]

I said early last week that I had a bad vibe about Florence. The overnight trends look increasingly very disturbing for South Carolina and possibly even the Georgia coast. That is one hell of a strong ridge building in over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region looking at the latest EURO and GFS.from overnight. Nowhere for Florence to go but west or even more southwest past 48 hours from now.

Quite a change potentially. 6Z GFS about to run.

Hopeful signs are that most models, and the NHC show it weakening quite a bit before it makes landfall at any of the more southern locales. Also as bad as it would be still the bulk of the heavy rain may stay offshore as well. It is certainly a good thing that South Carolina is taking this seriously.

[Blown Away]

06z GFS... 72 hrs... Eye moving SW just off NC

[xironman]

06z GFS... 72 hrs... Eye moving SW just off NC

Close to parking there, Morehead City has hurricane winds for day and a half.

[NCBuckeye]

06z GFS... 72 hrs... Eye moving SW just off NC

Myrtle Beach landfall around 90 then inland. Visiting my old hometown in Ohio by 144.

[NDG]

The way things are trending the GA coast may have to be place under a hurricane watch fairly soon, if the Euro is correct.

[cjrciadt]

3 of the Euro ensembles have Florence hit N florida , didn't think that was even possible yesterday.

That lowest one looks pretty close to Orlando...

Daytona, nope nope