WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

How much more can Mangkhut intensify than it already is before Luzon?

TYPHOON MANGKHUT ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 136.2E



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 12.09.2018 13.6N 136.2E INTENSE

12UTC 12.09.2018 13.8N 134.0E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 13.09.2018 14.1N 131.7E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 13.09.2018 14.6N 129.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 14.09.2018 15.8N 127.8E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 14.09.2018 17.2N 125.3E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 15.09.2018 18.3N 122.3E INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

12UTC 15.09.2018 19.2N 119.6E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 16.09.2018 20.2N 116.7E INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 16.09.2018 21.2N 113.7E INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 17.09.2018 21.5N 110.3E INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

12UTC 17.09.2018 21.8N 107.4E STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 18.09.2018 22.5N 103.2E MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

[doomhaMwx]

GFS and ECMWF rainfall projections.

[euro6208]

Cloud tops cooling. Could be anywhere between 160 to 190 knots tbh.

[1900hurricane]

Impressive to have the eye still near 20ºC with eyewall replacement about to kick into full gear.

[mrbagyo]

JMA 12z
110 knots
905 hpa.

[SconnieCane]

That 110kt is 10-minute averaged, right?

[euro6208]

:uarrow: That 110kt is 10-minute averaged, right?

Yes.

[euro6208]

26W MANGKHUT 180912 1200 14.2N 134.0E WPAC 150 911

Sticking with 150 knots.

[euro6208]

Estimates going up again. SATCON at 154 knots and AMSU close to 170 knots!

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09121056
SATCON: MSLP = 906 hPa MSW = 154 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 148.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 139 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 200 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -1.6 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 921 hPa 132 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP121210
CIMSS AMSU: 893 hPa 169 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09121056
ATMS: 920.0 hPa 134.7 knots Date: 09120445
SSMIS: 920.0 hPa 134.7 knots Date: 09120445
CIRA ATMS: 917 hPa 139 knots Date:

[WAcyclone]

Sentinel-3 captured Mangkhut yesterday at 2253z. If we are lucky we may even get a Sentinel-2 pass over the eye of Mangkhut in the next few days. That would be a first for the Western Pacific...

[mrbagyo]

[Highteeld]

155-160 knots based on that appearance I'd say

[doomhaMwx]

Sentinel-3 captured Mangkhut yesterday at 2253z. If we are lucky we may even get a Sentinel-2 pass over the eye of Mangkhut in the next few days. That would be a first for the Western Pacific...

https://i.imgur.com/vr7WAg0.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/1U8F3UW.jpg

Wow!
Where/how do we get these Sentinel data?

[WAcyclone]

Sentinel-3 captured Mangkhut yesterday at 2253z. If we are lucky we may even get a Sentinel-2 pass over the eye of Mangkhut in the next few days. That would be a first for the Western Pacific...

https://i.imgur.com/vr7WAg0.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/1U8F3UW.jpg

Wow!
Where/how do we get these Sentinel data?

I'm currently processing the raw satellite data myself (you can download the netCDF4 files via the Copernicus open access hub: https://scihub.copernicus.eu/) but it may also be possible to get at least a quick preview of the images by using the EO Browser: https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/

EDIT: Here is the direct link to Typhoon Mangkhut: https://apps.sentinel-hub.com/eo-browser/?lat=13.801&lng=135.271&zoom=8&time=2018-09-12&preset=CUSTOM&gain=0.3&datasource=Sentinel-3%20OLCI&layers=B09,B06,B02&evalscript=cmV0dXJuIFtCMDkqMi41LEIwNioyLjUsQjAyKjIuNV07

[Highteeld]

ADT finally up to 7.0 RAW and ADJ

[NotoSans]

Concentric eyewalls now very distinct on microwave imagery.

[Highteeld]

[Highteeld]

Jebi^

Mangkhut^

Peak intensity of both storms so far per the Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis; Mangkhut has beat Jebi, but no Meranti or Haiyan, yet.








OHC's when Haiyan made landfall:

Meranti Peak:



Forecast for Mangkhut:


For Mangkhut, it would seem the eyewall replacement cycle won't damage it much; intensity hasn't gone down at all (actually, increased like Irma last year ). Barring the height of the tropopause, not sure if this storm has a limit to its intensity in 48 hours or so based on previous analogues, and the forecast wind shear.

[Highteeld]

12z GFS analysis pegs Mangkhut at 897 mb!

[Highteeld]

Looks like a possible new world record forecast low pressure, but prob wayyyyy overcooked. I imagine this is what the hwrf would have shown if it were available when typhoon haiyan was out at sea.