ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ken711]

This is like Irma with the track movement ever changing as it approached closer.

[GCANE]

Can really see Flo rock on upper-level WV.
Check the outflow kicking in on the east quad.
The PV Streamer on the SE quad is filling in fast with moisture.
Very strong jet over East Cuba / West Hispaniola.
Ideal UL conditions in place for intensification.

http://i65.tinypic.com/iynbpz.png

Quick question, what's a pv streamer?. Thanks!

Basically a small vort in the upper troposphere connected to a larger synoptic-scale area of turbulence.

[SouthDadeFish]

One ERC after another. Thankfully this will likely prohibit another further significant intensification.

[forecasterjack]

Had a few minutes there where the convective appearance seemed for the first time so far to be A+. But thankfully, we're back down to a degraded and lopsided storm. -70C tops are to the SE, with the -60 ring barely hanging on in the NW quad. Perhaps an artifact of Florence moving too fast, a la Gordon in the GOM? Watching closely (1min GOES-16 link in case anyone didn't already have one or was looking for a new one: https://weather.us/satellite/692-w-301-n/top-alert-superhd-1min.html#play2)

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/NWSNHC/status/1039835684578762753

[tarheelprogrammer]

One ERC after another. Thankfully this will likely prohibit another further significant intensification.

https://i.imgur.com/jLrsixR.jpg

What is causing all these EWRCs?

[NDG]

Recon finds pressure remaining steady but stronger winds than last night.

112630 2921N 07039W 6968 02657 9438 +159 +096 254002 010 023 000 00

113200 2934N 07025W 6968 02737 9551 +127 +121 133110 116 110 018 00
113230 2935N 07024W 6969 02759 9594 +117 +117 132122 124 109 019 00
113300 2936N 07023W 6964 02792 9639 +108 +108 134123 124 109 016 00
113330 2937N 07022W 6967 02817 9674 +101 +101 135124 125 103 028 00
113400 2938N 07020W 6979 02823 9708 +092 +092 133122 125 103 027 00

[FLpanhandle91]

So this EWRC should be finished by this evening or tomorrow correct? Seems like poor timing in regards to landfall.

[terstorm1012]

One ERC after another. Thankfully this will likely prohibit another further significant intensification.

https://i.imgur.com/jLrsixR.jpg

What is causing all these EWRCs?

I don't think we really know what causes them to start and stop. They seem beyond our forecast capabilities at the moment.

[GCANE]

Absolutely perfect core structure.
Symmetry is remarkable.

[plasticup]

Absolutely perfect core structure.
Symmetry is remarkable.

http://i65.tinypic.com/33lmhxf.gif

This looks like it was lifted from a textbook. Real data is rarely so perfect.

[NDG]

Per the recon, hurricane force winds have expanded to a good 120 miles in diameter, maybe even higher.
Recon is finding 85 knot flight level winds 80+ miles NE of the eye.

[NDG]

[GCANE]

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 12th day of the month at 11:51Z

A. Time of Center Fix: 12th day of the month at 11:26:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 29.35N 70.65W

F. Eye Character: Open in the southeast
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 76kts (87.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 8 nautical miles to the SW (230°) of center fix at 11:24:00Z

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 110kts (126.6mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix at 11:32:30Z

P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,042m (9,980ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)


Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 125kts (~ 143.8mph) which was observed 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NE (46°) from the flight level center at 11:33:50Z

[TheDreamTraveler]

NHC saying 40 inches of rain isn't that outlandish considering that the models have been showing insane totals for days. Though people said Harvey's 60 inches was unreal and impossible too and look what happened. If it gets close enough I could definitely see someone getting more than 3 feet of rain.

[SconnieCane]

https://i.imgur.com/Qs8AGu8.gif?1

Sorry, but anyone seeing weakening right now is deluding themselves.

Unlike Mangkhut, the sight of that stadium effect isn't comforting anybody, especially from Virginia to north Florida.

[bg1]

https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1039824127970996226

Interesting they don't count the 20+ inches of rain one town in SC got due to Joaquin... is this only for land-traversing storms?

[NDG]

130+ knot winds just a few hundred feet above the surface.

[chris_fit]

Am I imagining things or does it look like the Hurricane Force Windfield grew? (Per recon)