ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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meriland29
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3121 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:09 am

How wide is she? Is she approaching Ike in size?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3122 Postby MaineWeatherNut » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:11 am

meriland29 wrote:How wide is she? Is she approaching Ike in size?


Tropical Storm force winds extend out 175 miles from the center. So getting up there in size. I don't think she's close to Ike yet though I don't remember Ike's size at Landfall.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3123 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:13 am

meriland29 wrote:How wide is she? Is she approaching Ike in size?

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

From HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 49:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM.


So Florence is much smaller than Ike.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3124 Postby sittingduck » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:22 am

ozonepete wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
sittingduck wrote:I know someone else asked this question but hoping one of the smart peeps - well smarter than me at least - can translate this from the 11 am discussion. Thanks in advance

The
shortwave trough over the southern Plains seen in water vapor
imagery could end up being a significant factor as it rounds the
narrow ridge over the Tennessee Valley and is expected to erode the
ridge along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast on days 3-5. At this time,
little change has been made to the NHC track forecast, which remains
very close to the aforementioned consensus aids through 72 hours.


This is why I asked it earlier as to what it does to the track after 72 hours.


For both of you:
What it means is that an approaching trough weakens a ridge as it moves into it. This one will get to the Appalachians by Saturday. Since this is a shortwave trough it won't doesn't extend all the way south to the GOM but the bottom of this U-shaped feature should reach down to near northern GA and AL as it nears the Appalachians. This could weaken the strong blocking ridge enough to allow Florence to move northward inland along the Appalachinas after it has stalled out somewhere over the Carolinas and weakened. It has tremendous impact on how much flooding occurs if it can pick up the remnants and kick them north. Would be less flooding inland, hopefully but highly uncertain at this early point.


Thank you so much - I just watched the 12Z GFS and I assume that is what it is depicting but maybe not as quickly as the NHC is discussing.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3125 Postby CronkPSU » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:23 am

plasticup wrote:
meriland29 wrote:How wide is she? Is she approaching Ike in size?

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

From HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 49:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM.


So Florence is much smaller than Ike.


As of right now...
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3126 Postby Floodo_Is_My_Hero » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:39 am

Sorry if this has already been posted...just at awe on the beauty of these storms. I wish they would all just stay out at sea and not cause such devastation so we could all just watch them from afar and marvel at their power.
Image
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plasticup

Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3127 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:43 am

CronkPSU wrote:
plasticup wrote:
meriland29 wrote:How wide is she? Is she approaching Ike in size?

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

From HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 49:
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260
MILES...415 KM.


So Florence is much smaller than Ike.


As of right now...

Yes, as a corporeal being, limited by the nature of time, I can only talk about the past and the present.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3128 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:44 am

I am worried that people are not realizing how LONG they will be under hurricane conditions due to the slow movement. It is highly probable that some people will see hurricane conditions for 36 hours. I dont think there are many people that have seen them last that long
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3129 Postby ronyan » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:46 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I am worried that people are not realizing how LONG they will be under hurricane conditions due to the slow movement. It is highly probable that some people will see hurricane conditions for 36 hours. I dont think there are many people that have seen them last that long


This is going to be a difficult storm to ride out for people that chose to stay. They will have to stay indoors for extended periods in order to avoid the risk of debris flying outside. It's concerning to think that major flooding will be going on with high winds outside, usually this takes place with somewhat more manageable winds like with Harvey.
Last edited by ronyan on Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3130 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:47 am

Georgia has announced state of emergency for all counties

 https://twitter.com/wsbtv/status/1039917496478965760


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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3131 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:47 am

The outflow pattern of Florence is the best it has been by far. Pending inner core reconstruction, I believe she will have one more strengthening trend before landfall.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3132 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:50 am

ScottNAtlanta wrote:I am worried that people are not realizing how LONG they will be under hurricane conditions due to the slow movement. It is highly probable that some people will see hurricane conditions for 36 hours. I dont think there are many people that have seen them last that long

When Fabian hit Bermuda in 2003 we had TS winds for >36 hours, hurricane for >24 hours, and the eyewall took 3 hours to pass. The duration of wind caused so much more damage.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3133 Postby emeraldislenc » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:51 am

Looks like it is getting better organized. What do y’all think
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3134 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:52 am

MaineWeatherNut wrote:
meriland29 wrote:How wide is she? Is she approaching Ike in size?


Tropical Storm force winds extend out 175 miles from the center. So getting up there in size. I don't think she's close to Ike yet though I don't remember Ike's size at Landfall.


Looking at all storms since 1988 (better wind radii records), the average extent of TS winds is 150-160 miles. For Hurricane-force wind, about 50-60 miles (NHC has Florence at 70 miles). That makes Florence a little larger than average. Ike's TS winds extended over 250 nautical miles NE of the center (295 miles). Ike's hurricane-force winds extended out to 130 miles. Basically, Ike was twice the size. This is no Ike size-wise.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3135 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:53 am

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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3136 Postby SconnieCane » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:53 am

MississippiWx wrote:The outflow pattern of Florence is the best it has been by far. Pending inner core reconstruction, I believe she will have one more strengthening trend before landfall.


Not to be contrarian but it does look a tad bit restricted to the SW. Poleward however is excellent, and inner core convection appears to be deepening once again.

I got a fever, and the only prescription, is more recon!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3137 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:54 am


Oooooh, sinister. You have a flare for the dramatic.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3138 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:55 am

SconnieCane wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:The outflow pattern of Florence is the best it has been by far. Pending inner core reconstruction, I believe she will have one more strengthening trend before landfall.


Not to be contrarian but it does look a tad bit restricted to the SW. Poleward however is excellent, and inner core convection appears to be deepening once again.

I got a fever, and the only prescription, is more recon!

Good news! Plane is lining up for another pass S to N
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3139 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:55 am

Can someone please post a recent microwave pass and/or other loops of the storm? Wanted to see what she is doing and how she is doing..
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3140 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Sep 12, 2018 11:55 am

SconnieCane wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:The outflow pattern of Florence is the best it has been by far. Pending inner core reconstruction, I believe she will have one more strengthening trend before landfall.


Not to be contrarian but it does look a tad bit restricted to the SW. Poleward however is excellent, and inner core convection appears to be deepening once again.

I got a fever, and the only prescription, is more recon!


It has always been a bit restricted there, but even there it is better today. I’m referring to the expansion of the outflow in all other quadrants which wasn’t there before.
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