Is it possible....

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TD19...Carribean bound?

Poll ended at Fri Oct 17, 2003 3:08 pm

Yes!
12
55%
No!
7
32%
Absolutely No!
3
14%
 
Total votes: 22
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stormchazer
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Is it possible....

#1 Postby stormchazer » Tue Oct 14, 2003 3:08 pm

Is it possible that TD19 will become the major Carribean system that models are trying to develop next week? It seems that the models are tilting further west which in no way means that TD19 won't recurve later in the forecast but I'm wondering outloud if this is a plausible scenario. Love to hear everyones thoughts?
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 14, 2003 3:17 pm

Jara if TD#19 stays relative weak and even it turns into a weak storm it will go more west but more slowly because of weak steering currents.But if it develops into a strong system it will be caught by upper features so it depends on the intensity what track will it take and if we here in the islands will be threatened.
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Rainband

#3 Postby Rainband » Tue Oct 14, 2003 3:30 pm

I am going with the NHC :wink: They have been real good all year long. :)
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JetMaxx

#4 Postby JetMaxx » Tue Oct 14, 2003 4:44 pm

I'm not sure TD 19/ future Nick will ever make it into the Caribbean, but I do feel it will be a much closer call than NHC currently forecasts.
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#5 Postby Toni - 574 » Tue Oct 14, 2003 6:02 pm

In the 5p discussion the NHC said that the Globals are indicating that the brakes could be put on the Northern motion by a high building over the central atlantic. Guess the big question here would be how much farther west can the system ride underneath the high. If it gets close to the Caribbean then I would think, that would be a whole new ballgame. I suppose it is not entirely out of the question. If it does continue to ride west, things could really get interesting pretty fast! :roll:
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#6 Postby abajan » Tue Oct 14, 2003 7:58 pm

Rainband wrote:I am going with the NHC :wink: They have been real good all year long. :)


Yep. Totally agree.
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#7 Postby JCT777 » Wed Oct 15, 2003 8:45 am

Stormchazer - I love that "No" and "Absolutely No" are two separate choices. Too funny! :lol:
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#8 Postby stormchazer » Wed Oct 15, 2003 10:57 am

Stormchazer - I love that "No" and "Absolutely No" are two separate choices. Too funny!

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Thanks...I wanted a little emotion in the Poll.
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The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
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