ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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CrazyC83
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3301 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:20 pm

If I were to guess, Recon will find a lower pressure owing to its growing size, but winds steady or slightly lower.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3302 Postby ronyan » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:20 pm

funster wrote:Smaller Flo eye appearing?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined


No, it's having internal structural issues. An eye contraction wouldn't happen that quickly.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3303 Postby Airboy » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:21 pm

funster wrote:Smaller Flo eye appearing?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined


Looks like it's improving again watching IR last half hour or so.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3304 Postby Vdogg » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:23 pm

With every model run that Southwest drift becomes less pronounced. I'm honestly still not sold on it.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3305 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:23 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If I were to guess, Recon will find a lower pressure owing to its growing size, but winds steady or slightly lower.

You've been watching these storms for a while, '83. You think she'll sort out the S side? Still looks mighty messy on IR.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3306 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:25 pm

Deep convection firing again along the western eyewall. Eye is shrinking and becoming circular...is Flo deepening again?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3307 Postby ConvergenceZone » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:26 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:If I were to guess, Recon will find a lower pressure owing to its growing size, but winds steady or slightly lower.


I was going to say 110(Cat 2) on the next advisory, but I will say 115 and still barely a Cat 3
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3308 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:39 pm

there is no way she hits the next forecast point
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3309 Postby meriland29 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:40 pm

Isn't her eye supposed to widen...not shrink if she is expanding her windfield?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3310 Postby CrazyC83 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:52 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:If I were to guess, Recon will find a lower pressure owing to its growing size, but winds steady or slightly lower.

You've been watching these storms for a while, '83. You think she'll sort out the S side? Still looks mighty messy on IR.


Probably not. It will just keep growing in size.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3311 Postby invest man » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:53 pm

Vdogg wrote:With every model run that Southwest drift becomes less pronounced. I'm honestly still not sold on it.

Never been convinced of it! It would be very bazaar!
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3312 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:53 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:there is no way she hits the next forecast point


Is it going north of track?
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3313 Postby wx98 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:56 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:there is no way she hits the next forecast point


Is it going north of track?


It would appear so, been going that way throughout the day ive noticed.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3314 Postby Condor » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:57 pm

ronyan wrote:
funster wrote:Smaller Flo eye appearing?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined


No, it's having internal structural issues. An eye contraction wouldn't happen that quickly.


Andrew (1992), Opal (1995), and Charley (2004) all rapidly intensified within hours of making landfall. All these intensifications were accompanied by eye contractions.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3315 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:58 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:there is no way she hits the next forecast point


Is it going north of track?


yes, quite a bit north and a bit east
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Recon Discussion

#3316 Postby craptacular » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:58 pm

The next low-level recon flight (mission 13) just dropped to operational altitude at the SW edge of Florence, in case anyone is interested in posting.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3317 Postby eastcoastFL » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:59 pm

Condor wrote:
ronyan wrote:
funster wrote:Smaller Flo eye appearing?
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?p ... =undefined


No, it's having internal structural issues. An eye contraction wouldn't happen that quickly.


Andrew (1992), Opal (1995), and Charley (2004) all rapidly intensified within hours of making landfall. All these intensifications were accompanied by eye contractions.



true but they were in the gulf and further south in the atlantic.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3318 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 12, 2018 5:59 pm

1900hurricane wrote:For those curious, Josh Morgerman of iCyclone has switched targets from Florence to Mangkhut in the WPac.


Plenty of people to document Florence anyway
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3319 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:00 pm

wx98 wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:there is no way she hits the next forecast point


Is it going north of track?


It would appear so, been going that way throughout the day ive noticed.


I agree. Maybe this is good for SC unless it dives SW before it reaches Wilmington.
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Re: ATL: FLORENCE - Hurricane - Discussion

#3320 Postby Terrace27 » Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:00 pm

It had a bit of a NNW jog earlier today, but for the past few hours, appears to be heading WNW... probably back on track if this WNW continues for a few more hours.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso-meso1-14-200-1-10-1&checked=latlon-map&colorbar=undefined

That loop shows the left bend pretty clearly.

Also, the outflow shape... seems to be "pointing" to the W, flattened on the N. Often suggests the direction.
Last edited by Terrace27 on Wed Sep 12, 2018 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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