ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

There is serious convection popping up...yet her eye is shrinking..i am so confused.

The eye is still there. Recon verified closed eye at 25 mi diameter. It’s probably covered with more clouds than before. Microwave imagery shows it too. The issue is some sort of quasi ERC and shear from the southwest because of the upper low. I think once the ERC completes, or whatever that is it’s doing, it may round out a little more. Still a monster storm, really. Katrina kinda fell apart on the south side right before landfall. It didn’t matter did it?

So did Ike, it was a cat 2. And Sandy was only a cat 1. There are a lot more dangers associated with hurricanes than just wind speed.

[GeneratorPower]

There is serious convection popping up...yet her eye is shrinking..i am so confused.

The eye is still there. Recon verified closed eye at 25 mi diameter. It’s probably covered with more clouds than before. Microwave imagery shows it too. The issue is some sort of quasi ERC and shear from the southwest because of the upper low. I think once the ERC completes, or whatever that is it’s doing, it may round out a little more. Still a monster storm, really. Katrina kinda fell apart on the south side right before landfall. It didn’t matter did it?

VDM says open eyewall to the SE

That is a new development since the last pass.

[ConvergenceZone]

In my opinion, I think when we wake up on the morning it will be down to 95 mph. If you think about it, that's only a 20 mph drop from what it is now. But it's the size that's concerning. Lots of flooding can be expected from this one! Even more so since it's grown so large.............

[PavelGaborik10]

This looks more like a Nor Easter at this point than a Major Hurricane.

[dukeblue219]

There is serious convection popping up...yet her eye is shrinking..i am so confused.

The IR satellite imagery is not like radar (or x-ray vision), but works pretty much like visible imagery in that you cant see through much of anything. All it takes is a little scruff in the eye and it will look more obscured on IR than it really is. The eye is still there and recon can see it clearly with on board radar (and probably their eyes).

[PTPatrick]

Just goes to show intensity is still the hardest part of the forecasting game. NHC has done a terrific job with This system. And people have been well warned. Thankfully some of wind damage appears to be less of a threat although a threat nonetheless. Hopefully the recent years of weakened, large surge storms have taught people to heed the warnings. the surge is already set in motion and you can’t stop a train.

I might add...climatology appears to have won again. There’s reasons why Hugo is the farthest north bona fide cat 4 hit.

[ConvergenceZone]

Watching the weather channel now with the live updates. This forum doesn't seem to be near as active as it normally is when a hurricane is heading for US land........Usually you can't even keep up with the posts....But not with Florence.

[jlauderdal]

Watching the weather channel now with the live updates. This forum doesn't seem to be near as active as it normally is when a hurricane is heading for US land........Usually you can't even keep up with the posts....But not with Florence.

if it was a florida or texas system it would be buzzing, more peeps on this board from those locations

[MacTavish]

Shear might let up overnight, just looking at the direction the ULL is moving.

[Rail Dawg]

I’m a scruff dog sleeping in the truck when chasing these things. Best to be mobile in case things shift.

Did just see Jim Cantore and his Weather Channel team along with a couple dozen news teams at the Ballast Hotel here in Wilmington.

They’ve got it made with nice hotels and a support team.

Not sure what they’ll do when the power goes and we’re all trapped by floodwaters for a few days or more. Then they’ll be like the scruff dog over in the parking garage lol.

Tomorrow should bring the first weather of the storm.

[CronkPSU]

Watching the weather channel now with the live updates. This forum doesn't seem to be near as active as it normally is when a hurricane is heading for US land........Usually you can't even keep up with the posts....But not with Florence.

if it was a florida or texas system it would be buzzing, more peeps on this board from those locations

.

Yep, we would have 75 posts debating every 15 minute sat update over whether it is a wobble or a trend...

[Hammy]

Just goes to show intensity is still the hardest part of the forecasting game. NHC has done a terrific job with This system. And people have been well warned. Thankfully some of wind damage appears to be less of a threat although a threat nonetheless. Hopefully the recent years of weakened, large surge storms have taught people to heed the warnings. the surge is already set in motion and you can’t stop a train.

I might add...climatology appears to have won again. There’s reasons why Hugo is the farthest north bona fide cat 4 hit.

Was Hazel reduced on reanalysis?

[PTPatrick]

Was Hazel reduced on reanalysis?[/quote]

No, but I read the reanalysis and I have doubts. It’s all based on estimates from pressure as records were not great at the time but they put it at 130 mph which is barely cat 4. We know it was moving fast and weakening so it seems unlikely above 130 translated to the surface. So I don’t mean to quibble with officials. It was a “cat 4” but If i had to choose between hazel and Hugo and Harvey to hit my town? I will take Hazel.

[FLeastcoast]

I’m a scruff dog sleeping in the truck when chasing these things. Best to be mobile in case things shift.

Did just see Jim Cantore and his Weather Channel team along with a couple dozen news teams at the Ballast Hotel here in Wilmington.

They’ve got it made with nice hotels and a support team.

Not sure what they’ll do when the power goes and we’re all trapped by floodwaters for a few days or more. Then they’ll be like the scruff dog over in the parking garage lol.

Tomorrow should bring the first weather of the storm.

Stay safe. Looking forward to your updates.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

[Raebie]

I’m a scruff dog sleeping in the truck when chasing these things. Best to be mobile in case things shift.

Did just see Jim Cantore and his Weather Channel team along with a couple dozen news teams at the Ballast Hotel here in Wilmington.

They’ve got it made with nice hotels and a support team.

Not sure what they’ll do when the power goes and we’re all trapped by floodwaters for a few days or more. Then they’ll be like the scruff dog over in the parking garage lol.

Tomorrow should bring the first weather of the storm.

I have a nice brick ranch in Lincoln Forrest you can hole up in. If it's still there. Lol.

[Madpoodle]

Watching the weather channel now with the live updates. This forum doesn't seem to be near as active as it normally is when a hurricane is heading for US land........Usually you can't even keep up with the posts....But not with Florence.

if it was a florida or texas system it would be buzzing, more peeps on this board from those locations

.

Yep, we would have 75 posts debating every 15 minute sat update over whether it is a wobble or a trend...

It was a wobble...

[drewschmaltz]

Watching the weather channel now with the live updates. This forum doesn't seem to be near as active as it normally is when a hurricane is heading for US land........Usually you can't even keep up with the posts....But not with Florence.

if it was a florida or texas system it would be buzzing, more peeps on this board from those locations

.

Yep, we would have 75 posts debating every 15 minute sat update over whether it is a wobble or a trend...

I think it's largely because of the discord channel chat.

[tolakram]

if it was a florida or texas system it would be buzzing, more peeps on this board from those locations

.

Yep, we would have 75 posts debating every 15 minute sat update over whether it is a wobble or a trend...

I think it's largely because of the discord channel chat.

S2K Discord is quiet as well.

[cjrciadt]

Raw T down to 2.8?!?!
This can't be transitioning to Post Tropical right?!
Sorry for sounding nuts lol!

[Vdogg]

This looks more like a Nor Easter at this point than a Major Hurricane.

It has the windfield of a Noreaster, and that's why we got hammered in SeVA with Matthew a few years ago. It went through extratropical transition and the windfield expanded greatly. It also cane 100 miles further north than forecast.