ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

This will be an awful event, but Cat 2/3 winds much better outcome then Cat 4/5... Carolinas can survive a Cat 3... JMHO...

[tolakram]

A giant storm, with an eye, with a recon plan IN the storm ... come on people, let's not overreact to everything we hear.

So where did you get these raw T numbers?

[jlauderdal]

The texans squabble over every frame, its really tough to deal with

Watching the weather channel now with the live updates. This forum doesn't seem to be near as active as it normally is when a hurricane is heading for US land........Usually you can't even keep up with the posts....But not with Florence.

if it was a florida or texas system it would be buzzing, more peeps on this board from those locations

.

Yep, we would have 75 posts debating every 15 minute sat update over whether it is a wobble or a trend...

[NDG]

Wow, recon doesn't even find hurricane force winds on the SE quadrant, per SFMR.

[Vdogg]

Is it me or does the storm seem far closer than it should be at this point? When does the slowdown happen?

[cjrciadt]

This looks more like a Nor Easter at this point than a Major Hurricane.

It has the windfield of a Noreaster, and that's why we got hammered in SeVA with Matthew a few years ago. It went through extratropical transition and the windfield expanded greatly. It also cane 100 miles further north than forecast.

My thought too but the waters are way to warm for that to occur right now??

[Hammy]

Raw T down to 2.8?!?!
This can't be transitioning to Post Tropical right?!
Sorry for sounding nuts lol!

Was this meant for the Isaac board?

Is it me or does the storm seem far closer than it should be at this point? When does the slowdown happen?

Probably because it's been out there for so long moving in the direction it is. Most of the time we're used to seeing storms moving north where this is at, not W/NW.

[cjrciadt]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html

A giant storm, with an eye, with a recon plan IN the storm ... come on people, let's not overreact to everything we hear.

So where did you get these raw T numbers?

[tolakram]

This looks more like a Nor Easter at this point than a Major Hurricane.

It has the windfield of a Noreaster, and that's why we got hammered in SeVA with Matthew a few years ago. It went through extratropical transition and the windfield expanded greatly. It also cane 100 miles further north than forecast.

My thought too but the waters are way to warm for that to occur right now??

Seriously, and with all due respect, what in the world are you looking at?

[rwfromkansas]

Could this only be cat 1 at landfall/closest approach to NC? Crazy what a day makes, or frankly, even 6 hours.

[tolakram]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html

A giant storm, with an eye, with a recon plan IN the storm ... come on people, let's not overreact to everything we hear.

So where did you get these raw T numbers?

5.0 Final. Raw probably failed due to the missing southern half.

[PandaCitrus]

While everyone is dancing on Florence's grave, she's looking the best she has in many hours. Very heavy convection fully wrapped around the eye and some of the south end of the storm is filling back in.

[cjrciadt]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt06L.html

A giant storm, with an eye, with a recon plan IN the storm ... come on people, let's not overreact to everything we hear.

So where did you get these raw T numbers?

5.0 Final. Raw probably failed due to the missing southern half.

Yup like a pizza missing a slice or three!

[GeneratorPower]

While everyone is dancing on Florence's grave, she's looking the best she has in many hours. Very heavy convection fully wrapped around the eye and some of the south end of the storm is filling back in.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_06L_201809130113.jpg

There is definitely some chicanery going on with shear and/or pseudoERC going on. She could mix it all out and come back up in wind speed. These disruptions do serve to expand the wind field.

[tolakram]

Could this only be cat 1 at landfall/closest approach to NC? Crazy what a day makes, or frankly, even 6 hours.

Doubtful, but the wind field is huge so it won't make cat 4 or 5 IMO. Surge is going to be the big story with this large wind field.

[CrazyC83]

Right now I would put the intensity at 85 kt given all the data. But there have been similar storms that have produced major disasters.

[NDG]

Big question is will the NHC downgrade Florence down to a Cat 2 at 11 PM, big decision for them to make. I say let's wait until 5 AM just in case it gets its act together during the night.

[Hurricane Andrew]

The texans squabble over every frame, its really tough to deal with

if it was a florida or texas system it would be buzzing, more peeps on this board from those locations

.

Yep, we would have 75 posts debating every 15 minute sat update over whether it is a wobble or a trend...

With 30-sec and 1-min rapid refreshing imagery, that's a lot of squabbling.

[Raebie]

While everyone is dancing on Florence's grave, she's looking the best she has in many hours. Very heavy convection fully wrapped around the eye and some of the south end of the storm is filling back in.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_06L_201809130113.jpg

Really bad time for her to get her act together too.

[GCANE]