ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rwfromkansas]

It is a good point that the surge is built in regardless of category, so people should have heeded the warnings.

[supercane4867]

Not much has changed other than reduced extreme wind impacts. She's still a legit CAT2 that will bring hurricane force winds to a large area.

[Hammy]

Looks like a good jog to the NW from the recon positions, possibly due to reorganization.

[Vdogg]

Right now I would put the intensity at 85 kt given all the data. But there have been similar storms that have produced major disasters.

This is starting to seem like Sandy with it's expansive windfield. I'm wondering if this will only be cat 2 at landfall.

[Michele B]

How wide is she? Is she approaching Ike in size?

Tropical Storm force winds extend out 175 miles from the center. So getting up there in size. I don't think she's close to Ike yet though I don't remember Ike's size at Landfall.

Looking at all storms since 1988 (better wind radii records), the average extent of TS winds is 150-160 miles. For Hurricane-force wind, about 50-60 miles (NHC has Florence at 70 miles). That makes Florence a little larger than average. Ike's TS winds extended over 250 nautical miles NE of the center (295 miles). Ike's hurricane-force winds extended out to 130 miles. Basically, Ike was twice the size. This is no Ike size-wise.

It will feel twice as large, though, since it won't move out very quickly at all.

Just going to sit and rain and rain, storm surge with wind, too, for hours/days. THAT is what will make this worse than just about any storm in history.

[AdamFirst]

The storm still has 24+ hours over water and you all want to call Bones out...

[PandaCitrus]

I also remember this storm making it to Cat 4 early on in its life under 30kts of shear that NHC and nobody else saw. We don't know a lot about intensity. It's very possible we could be surprised tomorrow morning. All I'm saying is its too soon to write her obituary.

[Michele B]

Unfortunately the high point is where nobody lives and might be about as big around as my living room.

I would guess most of the homes are 3-5 feet elevation but most are built on stilts or above ground. Given that that part of the island is flat as a pancake, water just doesn't stack up, but tends to rush from the sound to the ocean and vice versa.

The problem though is those houses on stilts will end up inland on the other side of the Sound. They will not be able to withstand the constant pounding of the Storm Surge and strong high waves. Many stilt houses around here on the Gulf Coast ended up like 20 miles away from where they were originally with Rita and Ike.

But were there people in them?

[bcargile]

Just goes to show intensity is still the hardest part of the forecasting game. NHC has done a terrific job with This system. And people have been well warned. Thankfully some of wind damage appears to be less of a threat although a threat nonetheless. Hopefully the recent years of weakened, large surge storms have taught people to heed the warnings. the surge is already set in motion and you can’t stop a train.

I might add...climatology appears to have won again. There’s reasons why Hugo is the farthest north bona fide cat 4 hit.

Was Hazel reduced on reanalysis?

Hazel also technically (the center) made landfall in SC, so no Cat 4 has ever made landfall in NC.

[bjackrian]

Recon is finding moderate TS SMFR winds in the 50 to 60 kt range a good distance to the southeast in the area of the storm that looks weakest by IR satellite.

[CrazyC83]

Recon is finding moderate TS SMFR winds in the 50 to 60 kt range a good distance to the southeast in the area of the storm that looks weakest by IR satellite.

It makes me hope there is an ASCAT pass soon. The wind radii may be quite a bit larger than the advisory says.

[MGC]

Hurricane still has plenty of water and time to reorganize. Gulfstream is dead ahead.....MGC

[wxman57]

Definitely a shell of her former self. I notice a good bit of low-level dry air working its way into the southern half. You can see it on the low-level moisture band on the slider page. It will most likely strike as a Cat 2 now. Could be a 3, and could be a 1. Looks like Josh Morgerman made the right decision to head to the Philippines vs. NC. I would point out, that it doesn't take a lot of wind to produce a catastrophic flood. Lower wind would be a lesser surge, though, and less catastrophic wind damage than a Cat 4.

Pretty busy at work with 8 active storms worldwide. At least we can scratch off Olivia and Barijat tomorrow. 12hr+ shifts to continue into Sunday. Have had one day off since August 29th, but I always expect to busy this time of year...

[psyclone]

She's putting back deep convection right around the center. whatever has disrupted it has turned it into Ike after Cuba. not super high max winds but very big and dangerous. a true water storm. the vast majority of the damage from this one...IMO will be water from surge action and inland flooding.

[emeraldislenc]

I agree too early to write an obituary it still has warm water and it will be intetesting to see if it bends to the north more. We are still expecting surge and wind at Emerald Isle. Hoping for the best!

[Blinhart]

Unfortunately the high point is where nobody lives and might be about as big around as my living room.

I would guess most of the homes are 3-5 feet elevation but most are built on stilts or above ground. Given that that part of the island is flat as a pancake, water just doesn't stack up, but tends to rush from the sound to the ocean and vice versa.

The problem though is those houses on stilts will end up inland on the other side of the Sound. They will not be able to withstand the constant pounding of the Storm Surge and strong high waves. Many stilt houses around here on the Gulf Coast ended up like 20 miles away from where they were originally with Rita and Ike.

But were there people in them?

No, because we know not to stay on the Gulf Coast when a system comes in. But those people staying on the barrier islands are gonna be in a rude awakening.

[igoldfish]

I'm too much of an amateur to make any intelligent comments on Florence. But I wanted to say how much I appreciate lurking in this forum. In 2004, I got caught by Charley's wicked right turn, and its ramping up in intensity so close to landfall. Found this site shortly afterwards. Been through every S Florida hurricane since, but, now I stay close to this forum and don't rely just on "news". Thank all of you who make this site happen - I have learned so much from your expertise.

[jasons2k]

There is definitely some chicanery going on with shear and/or pseudoERC going on. She could mix it all out and come back up in wind speed. These disruptions do serve to expand the wind field.

Better call Saul?

In all seriousness, this does remind me a lot of Ike. She is fighting some dry air. Will be interesting to see what she does when she crosses the Gulf Stream. Really tough call... but probably will be a 2 in the end.

[Big Easy Breeze]

Lots of talk about how it was going to surpass Katrina...etc. At this point, that is all but a mute point. First off, to be compared to Katrina, Florence would have had to reach CAT 5. Florence will not even get remotely close in intensity. Katrina reached peak wind speed of 175 MPH. It held those winds for quite a number of advisories and built up seas equal to a CAT 5 hurricane. While Katrina made landfall as a CAT 4 hurricane, the tidal surge and wave action momentum already established, did not lessen equal to CAT 4 status upon landfall. The momentum already built up, did not have time to recede to match the CAT 4 status and wind speed of 140 mph at landfall. Thus the impact of the tidal action, along with the wave action, was still CAT 5 at landfall. Florence on the other hand, reached a max wind spped of 140 MPH, with seas to match. With the recent developments of Florence, the tidal action along with the wave action should have time to reduce down equally.

All said, i do not want to downplay Florence's impact, but we need to put things in perspective sometimes. Unfortunately, some lives and property will be loss. And that sadly is the most important thing to understand and instead not get caught up in the hyperbole of the media, with the comparisons to previous hurricanes.

Prayers and thoughts to everyone that are in the path of Florence.

[Ken711]

Lots of talk about how it was going to surpass Katrina...etc. At this point, that is all but a mute point. First off, to be compared to Katrina, Florence would have had to reach CAT 5. Florence will not even get remotely close in intensity. Katrina reached peak wind speed of 175 MPH. It held those winds for quite a number of advisories and built up seas equal to a CAT 5 hurricane. While Katrina made landfall as a CAT 4 hurricane, the tidal surge and wave action momentum already established, did not lessen equal to CAT 4 status upon landfall. The momentum already built up, did not have time to recede to match the CAT 4 status and wind speed of 140 mph at landfall. Thus the impact of the tidal action, along with the wave action, was still CAT 5 at landfall. Florence on the other hand, reached a max wind spped of 140 MPH, with seas to match. With the recent developments of Florence, the tidal action along with the wave action should have time to reduce down equally.

All said, i do not want to downplay Florence's impact, but we need to put things in perspective sometimes. Unfortunately, some lives and property will be loss. And that sadly is the most important thing to understand and instead not get caught up in the hyperbole of the media, with the comparisons to previous hurricanes.

Prayers and thoughts to everyone that are in the path of Florence.

I thought Katrina was a Cat 3 at landfall, regardless even if Florence is a 2 or 3, it's still going to be a life threatening and very damaging hurricane.