ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[petit_bois]

Were any of the models forecasting Florence to fall apart like this? Any of them?

[Hammy]

Lots of talk about how it was going to surpass Katrina...etc. At this point, that is all but a mute point. First off, to be compared to Katrina, Florence would have had to reach CAT 5. Florence will not even get remotely close in intensity. Katrina reached peak wind speed of 175 MPH. It held those winds for quite a number of advisories and built up seas equal to a CAT 5 hurricane. While Katrina made landfall as a CAT 4 hurricane, the tidal surge and wave action momentum already established, did not lessen equal to CAT 4 status upon landfall. The momentum already built up, did not have time to recede to match the CAT 4 status and wind speed of 140 mph at landfall. Thus the impact of the tidal action, along with the wave action, was still CAT 5 at landfall. Florence on the other hand, reached a max wind spped of 140 MPH, with seas to match. With the recent developments of Florence, the tidal action along with the wave action should have time to reduce down equally.

All said, i do not want to downplay Florence's impact, but we need to put things in perspective sometimes. Unfortunately, some lives and property will be loss. And that sadly is the most important thing to understand and instead not get caught up in the hyperbole of the media, with the comparisons to previous hurricanes.

Prayers and thoughts to everyone that are in the path of Florence.

I thought Katrina was a Cat 3 at landfall, regardless even if Florence is a 2 or 3, it's still going to be a life threatening and very damaging hurricane.

Likewise, Ike had a Cat 5 storm surge in Texas, despite never even reaching Cat 3 in the Gulf--large, slow moving hurricanes can produce just as bad a surge.

We’re any of the models forecasting Florence to fall apart like this? Any of them?

I wouldn't say it's fallen apart, but some of the global models (Euro and Canadian) didn't forecast a whole lot of strengthening (in fact the latter had suggested gradual weakening in several runs.)

[bjackrian]

Flight level winds of 91 it's with SMFR of 50. That's an impressive difference, and makes me worried those could nice down to the surface over the next 24 hours.

[Michele B]

I'm too much of an amateur to make any intelligent comments on Florence. But I wanted to say how much I appreciate lurking in this forum. In 2004, I got caught by Charley's wicked right turn, and its ramping up in intensity so close to landfall. Found this site shortly afterwards. Been through every S Florida hurricane since, but, now I stay close to this forum and don't rely just on "news". Thank all of you who make this site happen - I have learned so much from your expertise.

Welcome, fish.....

I learn a lot, too, every time I come here, although sometimes I have to hang on to hang in.....cause sometimes it gets a little too technical for me!

I, too, was watching Charlie, since we live near - but inland - of the west coast. But that's a long time before I found this site. Anyway, I saw it take that little "jog" toward the Peace River. I screamed, "UH, OH!!! We got a problem!!!"

Everybody around me thought I lost my mind! They kept saying, "But it's going to Sarasota/Tampa...." I yelled, "No, it's not! It's coming here!" I raced home and boarded up my house....ended up with a lot of those poeple who called me crazy hunkered down in my windowless bathroom during the worst of it!

They don't doubt my ability to know what storms are doing now. I have so much more understanding and knowledge now, thanks to this site!

Been watching hurricanes since the '60's and I was a little kid. I used to "plot" them. Anybody remember when the newspaper used to give you the coordinates of where (in the middle of the ocean) the storm was? They would give you coordinates ONCE A DAY! You could get coord's twice a day if you got TWO newspapers a day delievered (which we did, my dad used to LOVE to read the newspaper - a trait he passed on to me!).

So, I guess this love of hurricanes goes back a long time. They've always fascinated me!

[emeraldislenc]

Yes I remember the old hurricane maps and you wouid plot them. Things have really changed.!

[Steve]

Were any of the models forecasting Florence to fall apart like this? Any of them?

It’s just the southern side. Storms are refiring there but it is or was supposed to be facing some southwesterly shear. It won’t matter later on. What we learn from Florence 18 is what happens when an area faces the inner core of a Cat 2/3/4 for prolonged periods of time. This isn’t a typical system that will just roll through. Some areas may see the west side of the inner core as well as the south and north sides. Could be 8-10-12 or more hours of that. Some areas will get hit with winds from all sides and if far enough north, some of the islands will take on surge from multiple directions. The way I see it, some parts of the southern NC coast and northern SC coast will get battered in sort of a prolonged way.

[meriland29]

What are the chances we wake tomorrow to a cat 1 or TS?

[tarheelprogrammer]

What are the chances we wake tomorrow to a cat 1 or TS?

1 % though I can hope that happens

[redingtonbeach]

Much like what happened with Irma and Harvey, and many other major hurricanes, I'm more worried about the folks who THINK they are in the clear and then end up in the northeast quadrant path of a stalled Cat1+ for days. The constant modeling changes are causing too many people to relax (ie: "we can ride it out - it's only going to be a Cat2"; "we're out of the path now"; etc). Throw in water estimates always seem to be double what is estimated before landfall, and we could end up seeing an epic disaster (worse than should be) with Florence. I pray I'm wrong.

[tolakram]

The core is getting more symmetrical again, but who knows if this is a trend, or temporary.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-13-48-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

By the way, who brought up Katrina? I've been comparing this to Ike.

[stormhunter7]

Looking at NOAA49 dropsonde data from tonight... clearly see some "drier" air on the southern flank of Florence in mid and lower levels.

*also off the SE NC/SC coast too!

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/hurricanetrack/status/1040054486667063296

[meriland29]

Is the sheer expected to leave or pick on her till landfall?

[igoldfish]

Thank you for your warm welcome Michelle B! Yes, that "O No, Charley isn't going to Tampa" moment is burned into my memory. My home was (emphasis on was) on the water in Bokeelia, right on the Gulf. There was an older meteorologist with NBC-2 (Fort Myers) at the time, who bravely broke with the NHC Tampa forecast for Charley and correctly predicted the sharp right turn and intensity increase. Don't remember his name, but I know he saved lives, probably mine. With all the technology at our fingertips, hurricanes outsmart us every time

[Blizzard96x]

What are the chances we wake tomorrow to a cat 1 or TS?

I think we could see a Cat 1... She is definitely struggling more tonight than previous nights...

[BobHarlem]

Been really looking at 95L and the ULL between it and Florence, it kicked up some northerly dry air into the south side earlier, but the ULL is going SW away from Florence and more to 95L, and that southerly shear going into Florence from the south may be going away. I'll guess we'll see in the morning.

[ConvergenceZone]

What are the chances we wake tomorrow to a cat 1 or TS?

I think that's just wishful thinking.........I think either we wake up to 125 mph or we wake up to 95 to 100 mph.... It will decide which direction it wants to go while we sleep.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The core is getting more symmetrical again, but who knows if this is a trend, or temporary.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Carolinas-13-48-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

By the way, who brought up Katrina? I've been comparing this to Ike.

Looks like it just sucked in dry air to its SW.

[chaser1]

Yes I remember the old hurricane maps and you wouid plot them. Things have really changed.!

"Ditto"! One of my fondest memories was the anticipation for June 1 to approach, and excitedly waiting for my dad to come home with the Sunday Miami Herald "Hurricane Edition"! A whole section exclusively designed with hurricane related articles and of course a map insert. I think a number of local restaurant chains may have also distributed hurricane maps at the beginning of the season too.

As for Florence, I'm just getting caught up on today's advisories and updates. Just looking at satellite late this evening, i'd say that Flo's weakening trent has stopped and am seeing what looks like a decent contraction of her eye along with it becoming better imbedded within a larger and more symmetric eye wall/CDO

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I like to look at the Surge Destructive Potential (SDP) Rating of a storm. The estimated rating is "based on some very coarse wind field assumptions". The technology that uses a gridded analysis, which gives a better result, was sold to a private company. (https://twitter.com/hwind/status/1039868877176545281)

The coarse estimate is currently 4.1 out of 6 as of 8pm EDT Wednesday for Florence.

Calculator:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/ike/Calculator_AllQuad.php

"The SDP box is the Surge Destructive Potential Rating based on a scale of zero to 6. SDP is interpreted similar to the Saffir SImpson scale in that the most destructive storms are rated above 5 and the least destructive storms < 1."