ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

If you look at the IR, shear has not abated, it is simply moving past it into a more favorable environment.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

Not entirely sure what you mean ... but the shear assuming it dropping would be because the upper low over Bahamas/Florida is clearly dropping wsw to SW. which would lessen the shear.. it is both moving away from the low while the low is moving away from Florence.

[sponger]

If you look at the IR, shear has not abated, it is simply moving past it into a more favorable environment.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=06L&product=ir

Not entirely sure what you mean ... but the shear assuming it dropping would be because the upper low over Bahamas/Florida is clearly dropping wsw to SW. which would lessen the shear.. it is both moving away from the low while the low is moving away from Florence.

While the cloud level looks healthy, the precipitation is still being flattened on the South Side. The eye is moving past it and is showing life as a result.

[Condor]

Even in the best conditions, it can only strengthen so much in 24 to 48 hours. I'm more concerned about the size of the current wind field and how much water is piling up to create a surge on the coast. I don't see it in a weakening phase at this hour though it's appeared to struggle over this afternoon and early evening.

It's not a time to let your guard down; but pay attention to the NHC and official news sources for local instructions.
Take care and stay safe!

Andrew, Charley, and Opal all intensified extremely fast within 10 hours of making landfall during a eye wall correction

Granted, let's hope and pray that Florence isn't getting her move on with a short time till landfall. It's bad enough that we're seeing an inflection in the track guidance at the coastline leading to a potential Southwest drift along the coast. Let's not link that with a reorganized and strengthening hurricane at the same time.

We can only hope but nature does what it wants

[meriland29]

On microwave it looks like an EWRC is mid way through with a larger outer ring. Its not going to take off if thats the case

Is that going on right now??

[meriland29]

Her eye looks collapsed last few frames

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Aric Dunn]

Her eye looks collapsed last few frames

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

that is the old inner eye rotating around. the outer eyewall looks to be finally closed and contracting choking off the inner.

if that convection maintains should see a large clearer eye in the next couple hours.

[chaser1]

So you think it could re strengthen that much?

I certainly do. That would seriously exacerbate coastal and near-to-coast inland wind damage at, and to the right of center. This of course is predicated on an actual straight on landfall occuring rather then a near stall offshore or any combination of other factors (i.e. upwelling, ingestion of dryer air, increased shear). The problem with fast moving storms such as Andrew or Charlie is that they tend to bring their "bad attitude" well inland with them. The extent of impact from land friction resulting in degredation of a hurricanes wind field can occur quickly but not nearly quick enough if a powerful hurricane were to move rapidly inland. Left to drift or stall however will certainly limit the breadth of inland severe wind related impact. Unfortunately coastal and near coast exposure to such long term battering could practically result in catastrophic devastation for those area's most directly exposed. I think its plausible for restrengthening to occur and be maintained right up to landfall. For reasons mentioned above however, Florence could restrengthen but short of a reasonable forward motion that practically drives the storm to landfall, a prolonged approach to landfall would practically guarantee weakening once again.

[MississippiWx]

The overall structure of the hurricane is improving by the minute. The eye wall will take some time to reform, but it's amazing how fast that can happen without shear punching in dry air.

[HDGator]

Her eye looks collapsed last few frames

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

I'm more concerned about the deep cooling of the cloud tops around the eye. It appears to have healed from any dry air intrusion and seems to be on the mend. We'll see what happens in the next few hours but I see an organizing storm...

[meriland29]

Her eye looks collapsed last few frames

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

that is the old inner eye rotating around. the outer eyewall looks to be finally closed and contracting choking off the inner.

if that convection maintains should see a large clearer eye in the next couple hours.

Thanks for the info Aric. I do have another question, she is currently a Cat 2 right now, is it even within the realm of possibility for her to bounce back in full in the small frame of time she has? I heard it is questionable, but als i remember seeing her jump to Cat 4 status from a low end cat 1 within 1 morning a few days ago..

[stormhunter7]

Recon last pass now back down to 957mb. Recon should be heading home. Pressure drop means one last run at strengthening.

[StormClouds63]

This storm reminds me of Ike in 2008 ... storm surge and inland flooding. I wouldn't focus on whether it's a 2 or a 3. Size of the system does matter as the effects are spread out over a much larger area.

[meriland29]

The overall structure of the hurricane is improving by the minute. The eye wall will take some time to reform, but it's amazing how fast that can happen without shear punching in dry air.

She was trying to fight that sheer a few hours ago...I could see that, it was a tug of war situation. Now it seems the sheer didn't fall in the mud, it just walked away...terrible analogy I know lol.

[MississippiWx]

The overall structure of the hurricane is improving by the minute. The eye wall will take some time to reform, but it's amazing how fast that can happen without shear punching in dry air.

She was trying to fight that sheer a few hours ago...I could see that, it was a tug of war situation. Now it seems the sheer didn't fall in the mud, it just walked away...terrible analogy I know lol.

Yeah, the culprit of the shear is moving too far away.

[stormhunter7]

Shear/drier air showed up well in Gonzos dropsonde data from earlier. Definitely was feeling affects of ULL to the SW, imo.

[meriland29]

Still in storm, here is the latest image. I wish I could find an image of the last recon pass before this one...

[chaser1]

Flo taking a temporary left hand turn?

[Condor]

<iframe src="https://giphy.com/embed/5YgyLlKssjV6XRgDIB" width="480" height="270" frameBorder="0" class="giphy-embed" allowFullScreen></iframe><p><a href="https://giphy.com/gifs/5YgyLlKssjV6XRgDIB">via GIPHY</a></p>

[Aric Dunn]

Her eye looks collapsed last few frames

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

that is the old inner eye rotating around. the outer eyewall looks to be finally closed and contracting choking off the inner.

if that convection maintains should see a large clearer eye in the next couple hours.

Thanks for the info Aric. I do have another question, she is currently a Cat 2 right now, is it even within the realm of possibility for her to bounce back in full in the small frame of time she has? I heard it is questionable, but als i remember seeing her jump to Cat 4 status from a low end cat 1 within 1 morning a few days ago..

with this hurricane who knows. I can tell you it i definitely possible to get back to 120 or maybe 130. will that hold till the coast who knows. will be moving slow. a lot of variables..

but in the next 12 to 18 hours it sure could deepen quick if the shear has fully reduced .. the ssts are plenty warm enough . ..just requires the right stuff.

[meriland29]